Credit Risk Models for Managing Bank’s Agricultural Loan Portfolio

In this paper, we have developed a credit scoring model for agricultural loan portfolio of a large Public Sector Bank in India and suggest how such model would help the Bank to mitigate risk in Agricultural lending. The logistic model developed in this study reflects major risk characteristics of Indian agricultural sector, loans and borrowers and designed to be consistent with Basel II, including consideration given to forecasting accuracy and model applicability. In this study, we have shown how agricultural exposures are typically can be managed on a portfolio basis which will not only enable the bank to diversify the risk and optimize the profit in the business, but also will strengthen banker-borrower relationship and enables the bank to expand its reach to farmers because of transparency in loan decision making process.Credit Risk Modelling; Lending; Agriculture

Internal Assessment of Credit Concentration Risk Capital: A Portfolio Analysis of Indian Public Sector Bank

This paper aims at working out a more risk sensitive measure of concentration risk and captures its impact in terms of capital number that will help the bank’s top management to manage it efficiently as well as meet the regulatory compliance. We have designed a more risk sensitive measures like expected loss based Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI), loss correlation approach (single as well as multi factor), credit value at risk (C-VaR) based on bank’s internal loss data history that would measure credit concentration and suggest the amount of capital required to cover concentration risk. Using detailed borrower wide, facility wide, industry and regional loan portfolio data of a mid sized public sector bank in India, our paper attempts to provide a detail insight into measurement of concentration risk in credit portfolio and understand its impact in terms of economic capital for the bank as a whole. Regulators and other stakeholders worldwide are asking for more accurate and precise measure of concentration risk in terms of capital numbers. The detailed analysis and methods used in this paper is an attempt to find out a solution in this direction.Portfolio Credit Concentration Risk, Bank Capital

Credit Risk Models for Managing Bank’s Agricultural Loan Portfolio

In this paper, we have developed a credit scoring model for agricultural loan portfolio of a large Public Sector Bank in India and suggest how such model would help the Bank to mitigate risk in Agricultural lending. The logistic model developed in this study reflects major risk characteristics of Indian agricultural sector, loans and borrowers and designed to be consistent with Basel II, including consideration given to forecasting accuracy and model applicability. In this study, we have shown how agricultural exposures are typically can be managed on a portfolio basis which will not only enable the bank to diversify the risk and optimize the profit in the business, but also will strengthen banker-borrower relationship and enables the bank to expand its reach to farmers because of transparency in loan decision making process.Credit Risk Modelling; Lending; Agriculture

RAROC & EVA :The New Drivers of Business Growth in Indian Banks

Through RAROC and EVA tools, Banks can establish a good risk management culture that can create competitive advantage and improve shareholder valueRAROC; EVA; Integrated Risk Management, Banking

Factors Driving Demand and Default Risk in Residential Housing Loans: Indian Evidence

This paper empirically examines the functional role of various micro and macro economic as well as situational factors that determine residential housing demand and risk of borrower default. Using 13,487 housing loan account sanctioned from 1993-2007) data from Housing Finance Institutions (HFIs) in India, we investigate the crucial factors that drive demand for housing and its correlation with borrower characteristics. Next, we examine housing loan defaults and the major causative factors of the same. Our empirical results suggest that borrower defaults on housing loan payments is mainly driven by change in market value of the property vis-à-vis the loan amount and EMI to income ratio. A 10 percent decrease in the market value of the property vis-à-vis the loan amount raises the odds of default by 1.55 percent. Similarly, a 10 percent increase in EMI to income ratio raises the delinquency chance by 4.50 percent. However, one cannot ignore borrower characteristicslike marital status, employment situation, regional locations, city locations, age profile and house preference which otherwise may inhibit lender to properly assess credit risk in home loan business as our results show that these parameters also act as default triggers.Housing Demand, Risk Management, Financial Institutions and Banks

Empirical estimation of default and asset correlation of large corporates and banks in India

Estimation of default and asset correlation is crucial for banks to manage and measure portfolio credit risk. This would require studying the risk profile of the banks’ entire credit portfolio and developing the appropriate methodology for the estimation of default dependence. Measurement and management of correlation risk in the credit portfolio of banks has also become an important area of concern for bank regulators worldwide. The BCBS (2006) has specifically included an asset correlation factor in the computation of credit risk capital requirement by banks adopting the Internal Ratings Based Approach. We estimate default correlation in the credit portfolio of banks. These correlation estimates will help the regulator in India to understand the linkage between bank’s portfolio default risks with the systematic factors. We also derive default and asset correlations of Indian corporate and compare it with global scenario. The work tries to find the relationship of the correlation to the default probability as specified by the Basel committee. The findings of this paper could be used further in estimating portfolio credit risk, economic capital and risk adjusted returns on economic capital for large corporate exposures of banks.Default Correlation, Asset Correlation, Credit Portfolio Risk

The Accuracy of Agency Ratings

Recently, regulators as well market participants have raised serious concerns about the validity of external credit ratings in predicting true status of corporate default risk in India. This article seeks to compare historical rating trends in India along with the global benchmarks. CRAs need to provide more insight about corporate rating movements to enable banks to derive early warning signals about inherent credit risk. The kind of risk indicators need to be disclosed has been highlighted in this article

The Accuracy of Agency Ratings

Recently, regulators as well market participants have raised serious concerns about the validity of external credit ratings in predicting true status of corporate default risk in India. This article seeks to compare historical rating trends in India along with the global benchmarks. CRAs need to provide more insight about corporate rating movements to enable banks to derive early warning signals about inherent credit risk. The kind of risk indicators need to be disclosed has been highlighted in this article

Changing Income Structure, Ownership and Performance: An Empirical Analysis of Indian Banking Sector

This paper investigates the relationship between the changing patterns of bank’s source of income and risk adjusted performance. A database of 77 banks over the period of 1999 to 2004 is constructed for the 27 public sector banks, 22 private banks, 25 foreign banks and 3 cooperative banks to compare their change in income composition. Bank’s performance is measured by risk adjusted return on BIS risk allocated capital (RARORAC). To examine the relationship between ownership pattern and performance, we compare the difference between new generation private sector banks and foreign banks with their public sector and cooperative banks counterparts. We argue that in a competitive financial market in order to change the profitability drivers in banking, Indian banks need to improve their non-interest income and also augment risk adjusted interest income through better risk based pricing.Banking, Value creation and performance

Internal Assessment of Credit Concentration Risk Capital: A Portfolio Analysis of Indian Public Sector Bank

This paper aims at working out a more risk sensitive measure of concentration risk and captures its impact in terms of capital number that will help the bank’s top management to manage it efficiently as well as meet the regulatory compliance. We have designed a more risk sensitive measures like expected loss based Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI), loss correlation approach (single as well as multi factor), credit value at risk (C-VaR) based on bank’s internal loss data history that would measure credit concentration and suggest the amount of capital required to cover concentration risk. Using detailed borrower wide, facility wide, industry and regional loan portfolio data of a mid sized public sector bank in India, our paper attempts to provide a detail insight into measurement of concentration risk in credit portfolio and understand its impact in terms of economic capital for the bank as a whole. Regulators and other stakeholders worldwide are asking for more accurate and precise measure of concentration risk in terms of capital numbers. The detailed analysis and methods used in this paper is an attempt to find out a solution in this direction