Dynasties Thrive Under Decentralization in the Philippines

The association of political clans with traditional politics, vote buying, impunity and other detrimental practices in Philippine politics is well documented in the academic literature. And in very recent studies, political dynasties have also been shown to be associated with deeper poverty — where there are fatter dynasties (i.e. political clan members occupying positions together) there tend to be increased poverty and underdevelopment. This paper provides an update on the over-all leadership patterns in the country, incorporating the results from the May 2016 elections. Over-all, when considering the results of the 2016 elections, the Philippines’ local governments became even more dynastic with over 80% of Governors and around 78% of Representatives belonging to political clans. Based on the present trend, we estimate that almost 70% of the entire local government leadership will be dynastic by 2040

Political and Economic Inequality: Insights from Philippine Data on Political Dynasties

There is an extensive empirical literature on economic inequality; yet few studies examine its political underpinnings. This article contributes to the nascent literature in this area by developing and analyzing a new measure of political inequality. Drawing on a comprehensive provincial-level dataset on local government leadership in the Philippines; this article develops a political inequality index based on the concentration of elective positions among political dynasties. It then empirically examines the possible links among economic inequality; political inequality; and development outcomes across Philippine provinces. This study finds that economic inequality displays a nonlinear relationship with indicators of human development—there is a positive correlation at lower levels of human development; and a negative correlation at higher levels. On the other hand; unlikeeconomic inequality; political inequality seems to be associated with weaker development outcomes; regardless of the level of development the province is in. This finding emphasizes how future research on political inequality could yield new insights into the persistence and depth of poverty; human development; and other forms of social and economic inequality

Political Economy of Federalism: Insights from Data on Guns, Goons and Gold

Even deeper decentralization (de-concentration and devolution) in the Philippines will likely face chronic challenges in local governance. Emerging evidence from several decades of policy experience from the implementation of the Local Government Code suggests that weak governance and traditional politics – perhaps epitomized by the adage “guns, goons and gold” – still frustrates strong and inclusive development outcomes in the entire country. If federalism is to succeed, it will need to address these challenges and create more effective mechanisms to help new federal jurisdictions and sub-jurisdictions transition towards better governance and stronger development outcomes. As a contribution to the ongoing discussions on decentralization and local governance, this paper examines some of the possible governance and political economy issues in rolling out federalism reforms. This paper explores the risks and potential of the current governance structure of the country upon transition to a federal form of government. To help illustrate challenges and opportunities in this transition, this paper examines the cases of three proposed states and the potential for successful federalism reforms by highlighting three areas: guns and goons (dynasties, conflict and private armies) and gold (wealth and socio-economic variables)

Unleashing the Country\u27s Full Potential to Attract FDI

With the existing trajectory path of the Philippines’ advancement aspirations, there is challenge that lies in sustaining and dramatically elevating the growth in foreign direct investments (FDI), which are critical for the country’s economic development. In light of the impending reforms that aim to fast track economic growth in the country, this paper provides an overview of the current economic landscape in view of foreign direct investments. We examined the prevailing political noises that dictate investment prospects and analyzed foreign direct investments across administrations and against its competition among neighbor countries. Tracking down foreign direct investments in the past 6 years from 2012 to 2017 shows that FDI since 2010 has exhibited an upward trend, but the “long game” in FDI is not built on quick spurts—it is more amply compared to a marathon underpinned by strong institutions and fundamentals. If we were to use a health analogy, the evidence presented suggests that ours is a generally healthy economy, posting impressive growth, but carrying some structural flaws. A successful cure will likely come at the hands of skilled and respected surgeons wielding scalpels, rather than those who would wield axes, doing more harm than good

Health Inequity in the Philippines

Health is an important component of human development. A healthy and well-trained workforce attracts investments and spurs economic progress. For this reason, countries need to ensure that its health system provides adequate services to its population. Where the system relies on public and private providers, there must be effective synergy between the two sectors. In the case of the Philippines where inequity has been a major concern in health outcomes and service provision, policy makers face the following challenges: (1) reduce the discrepancy in the access to healthcare services among its socioeconomic classes; (2) reduce the discrepancy in the quality of health services between the public and private sectors; (3) increase the availability of services to geographically isolated and depressed areas; and (4) reduce out-of-pocket expenditures as a percentage of total health expenditure

Term Limits and Political Dynasties: Unpacking the Links

This paper reviews the empirical evidence linking political dynasties to the imposition of term limits under the 1987 Constitution. It finds evidence that political clans have found a way around this Constitutional constraint, by fielding more family members in power -- giving rise to more fat political dynasties. Hence, we carefully argue that the introduction of term limits -- combined with the failure to introduce other ancillary reforms (notably an anti-dynasty law) -- may have brought about instead some unintended consequences. So it is not term limits per se that created fat political dynasties. We further argue that it is a non sequitur to argue that dynasties will be curbed by removing term limits. This is particularly true given fat political clans are already prevalent. Simply removing term limits at this point will secure the political foothold of many already fat political dynasties. Real reforms should be focused not on removing term limits, but on further strengthening those reforms that should have accompanied it -- including enhancing competition in the political sphere, such as by supplying alternative leaders, strengthening political parties and regulating political dynasties

Costing Populist Policies

In many countries were populism has taken hold, focus on quicker yet ultimately unsustainable policy shortcuts gave rise to canonical populism that has led to policy failure and crises. This note analyzes three policy cases in the Philippines which appear to reflect populist tendencies, defined simply by its redistributive yet potentially unsustainable characteristics. It aims to reveal not simply the cost of these policies, but also the need to think of structural and institutional reforms that address the root causes of the risks and challenges. Ultimately, populism appears to be trumped by evidence on policies that actually work more effectively

The Philippines’ China Pivot: Yield and Risks

Since the beginning of the administration of President Rodrigo Duterte, significant changes have been made to the Philippines’ foreign policy regime. Ties with the Peoples’ Republic of China have strengthened, while traditional allies like the USA and European Union have been antagonized. On a similar note Duterte has also allowed the operation of the Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGOs), where various sources suggest that the majority of Chinese nationals now in the Philippines are presently employed.This analysis aims to provide a general assessment of the economic yield as well as the risks that has resulted from this foreign policy pivot of the Philippines. On one hand, increasing ties with China has resulted in an influx of tourism, investment, and infrastructure financing flows. For instance, based on the NEDA approved projects, China has been granted 12 infrastructure projects, the most awarded to other countries in 2018. However, negative effects have also been evident. In particular, the rising number of Chinese nationals - both legal and illegal - in the country has also raised concerns regarding our national security, both due to their disproportionate impacts on local property markets, and the potential dearth of employment benefits being extended to Filipinos. The balance of these emergent risks and benefits from the China rapprochement raises important questions on the sustainability of the gains from increasing ties with China, and underscore the need for continued monitoring through a combine economic and national security lens