Managerial judgment and forecast combination: An experimental study

This paper examines the role of managerial judgment in forming a final forecast, or judging the achievability of a critical level of sales, when multiple forecasts or opinions are available to the decision maker. Several factors that can help improve the quality of human intervention are identified and incorporated in a decision aid. Experimental results show that aided combination can help the decision maker exploit her relevant private information and mitigate the generally observed negative effects of human intervention. Further, the results suggest that emphasizing expected sales, even when the organization is primarily interested in go/no-go decisions, helps improve performance. Several suggestions for future research are presented.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47133/1/11002_2004_Article_BF00993954.pd

The inevitable pain of software development: Why there is no silver bullet

Abstract. A variety of programming accidents, i.e., models, methods, artifacts, and tools, are examined to determine that each has a step that programmers find painful enough that they habitually avoid or postpone the step. This pain is generally where the programming accident meets requirements, the essence of software, and their relentless volatility. Hence, there is no silver bullet.