Multivariate statistical analysis of flood variables by copulas: two italian case studies

Multivariate statistics are important to determine the flood hydrograph for the design of hydraulic structures and for the hydraulic risk assessment. In the last decade, the copula approach has been investigated in hydrological practice to assess the design flood hydrograph in terms of flood peak, volume and duration. In this paper, the copula approach is exploited to perform pair analyses of these three random variables for two Italian watersheds, in the Apennine and the Alps respectively. The criterion to separate continuous flow series into independent events is discussed along with its implications on the dependence structure. The goodness-of-fits of the proposed copulas are then assessed by non-parametric tests. Marginal distributions to derive joint distributions are briefly suggested. The possibility of generating flood events according to the proposed model and potential applications to hydraulic structure design and flood management are finally examined

Deriving a practical analytical-probabilistic method to size flood routing reservoirs

In the engineering practice routing reservoir sizing is commonly performed by using the design storm method, although its effectiveness has been debated for a long time. Conversely, continuous simulations and direct statistical analyses of recorded hydrographs are considered more reliable and comprehensive, but are indeed complex or seldom practicable. In this paper a handier tool is provided by the analytical-probabilistic approach to construct probability functions of peak discharges issuing from natural watersheds or routed through on-line and off-line reservoirs. A simplified routing scheme and a rainfall-runoff model based on a few essential hydrological parameters were implemented. To validate the proposed design methodology, on-line and off-line routing reservoirs were firstly sized by means of a conventional design storm method for a test watershed located in northern Italy. Their routing efficiencies were then estimated by both analytical-probabilistic models and benchmarking continuous simulations. Bearing in mind practical design purposes, adopted models evidenced a satisfactory consistency

Failure Probability Analysis of Levees Affected by Mammal Bioerosion

Mammal bioerosion is an emergent threat to the functionality of levees. In the present paper, the problem of assessing the failure probability of levees affected by mammal bioerosion is addressed. A fully bivariate description of peak flow discharge and flood duration is combined with a deterministic unsteady seepage flow model to obtain a suitable model of variably disturbed levee response to the observed natural variability of floods. Monte Carlo analysis is also implemented to evaluate the epistemic uncertainty connected to the description of the river system. The obtained model is tested with respect to a real-world levee located along the Secchia River in northern Italy, which underwent a disastrous failure caused by mammal bioerosion in 2014. The convex linear combination of two Archimedean copulas is found to fit the empirical dependence structure between peak flow discharge and flood duration. The reliability of the unsteady seepage flow model is tested against detailed numerical simulations of the seepage occurring through the levee body. A limit state function is obtained by comparing the maximum extent of the seepage front to the distance between the den end and the riverside levee slope, and the corresponding levee safety and failure regions are delimited. Results obtained from the developed model reveal a significant impact of mammal dens located near the levee crest in terms of failure probability and related return period. This impact is consistent with failures observed in the study area

Nutrient delivery efficiency of a combined sewer along a lake challenged by incipient eutrophication

Although sewage diversion outside of a lake's watershed is now ordinary practice in the restoration of eutrophic lakes, often the observed recovery is slower than expected and the internal load from the lake anoxic sediments is identified as a possible reason. However, in the case of combined sewer, the quantification of the residual nutrient load discharged from sewer spillways must also be questioned. In this paper, the diversion efficiency of the sewer system along the east coast of Lake Iseo, a prealpine Italian lake where eutrophication effects are still severe, is investigated. To this purpose, a representative part of the sewer system was modelled by PCSWMM and calibrated by using an extensive series of discharge measurements. Water quality monitoring during wet weather periods reveals that the first flush is common in tributary sewers, whereas it is absent along the main collector. Moreover, flow discharges are strongly affected by infiltration waters, which are controlled by the lake water level. The calibrated model, including infiltration modeling, was used to assess the annual overflow volumes and the nutrient load through a continuous 10-year simulation. Simulations were conducted both with regard to the current conditions and to a climate change scenario. Results show that the discharged residual load is at least 7 times larger than the design value, with the water infiltration contributing to 17% to the overflow volume and that non-structural practices could considerably reduce the overall impact of the sewer. This research thus provides important insight into the potential impact of combined sewer overflows on lacustrine environments and addresses effective mitigation measures in similar contexts

Salinity dynamics under different water management plans coupled with sea level rise scenarios in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

In recent years, saltwater intrusion in river estuaries has become more severe and frequent worldwide. The common reasons lie in increasing freshwater withdrawal, river flow regulation and sea level rise due to global warming. In particular, the Red River Delta in northern Vietnam is facing a strong population growth worsening the pressure on freshwater resources for drinking water and irrigation needs. During the dry season, increasing conflicts and constraints in freshwater availability have already been experienced. Adverse combinations of river flow regulations and high sea levels lead to severe upstream propagations of salinity. This study takes advantage of a statistical characterization of discharges released from Hoa Binh reservoir and observed at Son Tay station, the main river flow control upstream of the river delta, along with downscaled and updated sea level rise sce- narios to estimate the future extents of saltwater intrusion under different options of water release from reser- voirs in the dry season. To do so, a 1D hydraulic model of the river delta network was implemented using MIKE11 software. The hydraulic and the quality modules were calibrated and validated with respect to the present scenario by using water stages and salinity concentrations observed in estuary branches. Sea level rise projections for 2050 and 2100 referred to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 AR5 emission scenarios were then considered. Results show that river flow regulation can provide an effective mitigation measure. A 20–30% increase in the discharge released from the Son Tay station would be beneficial to push downstream the saltwater intrusion in the main Red River branch during the dry season. For instance, in 2050 the 1‰ salt concentration front is ex- pected to be pushed back at least 6 km when the exceeding probability of the discharge released by Son Tay station decreases from 95% to 25%

Stima delle prestazioni di una vasca di laminazione: confronto tra simulazioni continue e metodi analitico-probabilistici

I criteri di dimensionamento delle vasche di laminazione elaborati secondo l’approccio dell’evento critico presentano alcuni limiti. Il più rilevante di essi risiede nella difficoltà di tenere in considerazione la naturale variabilità delle piene e la loro successione temporale. Le simulazioni di lungo periodo ed i metodi analitico-probabilistici invece possono ovviare efficacemente a questo inconveniente, pervenendo così a stime dei tempi di ritorno delle portate al colmo concettualmente corrette. In riferimento ad un caso di studio, rappresentato da un dispositivo d’invaso progettato per proteggere la città di Brescia dalle piene del torrente Garza, sono state ricavate mediante questi due diversi approcci le distribuzioni di frequenza delle portate di picco prodotte dal bacino naturale e quelle laminate. Il loro confronto ha evidenziato alcuni limiti del secondo metodo, che tuttavia sembra meritevole di ulteriore approfondimento

Copula-based modeling of earthen levee breach due to overtopping

4noPubblicazione svolta nell'ambito del progetto "Smart FLOod RIsk MAnagement Policies" FLORIMAP finanziato da Fondazione CARIPLO. Bando 2017/0708.openpartially_openembargoed_20211007Balistrocchi M.; Moretti G.; Orlandini S.; Ranzi R.Balistrocchi, M.; Moretti, G.; Orlandini, S.; Ranzi, R