Invecchiamento della popolazione, crescita economica ed effetti sul sistema pensionistico

Dottorato di ricerca in demografia. 7. ciclo. Tutore M. NataleConsiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Biblioteca Centrale - P.le Aldo Moro, 7, Rome; Biblioteca Nazionale Centrale - P.za Cavalleggeri, 1, Florence / CNR - Consiglio Nazionale delle RichercheSIGLEITItal

Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields

The recent sharp increase in fiscal deficits and government debt in many countries raises questions regarding their impact on long-term sovereign bond yields. While economic theory suggests that this impact is likely to be adverse, empirical results have been less clear cut, have generally ignored nonlinear effects of deficits and debt through some other key determinants of yields, and have been mostly confined to advanced economies. This paper reexamines the impact of fiscal deficits and public debt on long-term interest rates during 1980 - 2008, taking into account a wide range of country-specific factors, for a panel of 31 advanced and emerging market economies. It finds that higher deficits and public debt lead to a significant increase in long-term interest rates, with the precise magnitude dependent on initial fiscal, institutional and other structural conditions, as well as spillovers from global financial markets. Taking into account these factors suggests that large fiscal deficits and public debts are likely to put substantial upward pressures on sovereign bond yields in many advanced economies over the medium term.Budget deficits;Public debt;Bonds;Interest rates;Fiscal policy;Developed countries;Emerging markets;Cross country analysis;Economic models;bond yields, fiscal balance, fiscal deficits, government bond, term bond, long-term bond yields, primary fiscal balance, government bond yields, fiscal variables, sovereign bond, debt service, financial market, global bond, financial markets, fiscal balance in percent, government bonds, fiscal conditions, bond markets, fiscal indicators, fiscal stance, fiscal consolidation, fiscal expansions, fiscal adjustment, sovereign bond markets, public bond, crowding out, fiscal discipline, fiscal balances, fiscal imbalances, public finances, bond yield curve, fiscal rules, financial systems, primary fiscal deficit, fiscal solvency, financial globalization, budget constraint, fiscal risks, fiscal frameworks, fiscal institutions, fiscal retrenchments, tax cuts, fiscal sustainability, fiscal adjustments, fiscal vulnerability, fiscal affairs department, domestic bond, stock market, fiscal problems, tax revenues, foreign capital, primary deficit, nominal interest rate, fiscal agencies, fiscal adjustment efforts, stock market volatility, increase in debt service, fiscal stability, fiscal developments, government bond markets, global bond markets, tax policy, aggregate demand, financial sector

Methodological, technological and design challenges in the new multisource statistics ecosystem

We are experiencing noteworthy changes in our societies, related to the impact of health and safety in the post-COVID19 pandemic; globalization; digital technologies; on the perimeter, organization and performances of companies; and climate change, including on ecosystems and biodiversity. In this paper, we present future challenges and developments of statistics and official statistics along four main axes: data, capabilities to manage data, methods, and data governance. Nobody can address alone the new challenges of the information society. Partnerships among official statistics, academia, public and private researches, and users, are fundamental. It is necessary to adopt a strategy and a coherent plan of action at the global level to support the modernization of official statistics to answer societal challenges

Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress

This paper proposes a set of fiscal indicators to assess rollover risks using the conceptual framework developed by Cottarelli (2011). These indicators provide early warning signals about the manifestation of these risks, giving policymakers the opportunity to adjust policies before extreme fiscal stress events. Two aggregate indices are calculated: an index of fiscal vulnerability and an index of fiscal stress. Results show that both indices are elevated for advanced economies, reflecting unfavorable medium-term debt dynamics and aging-related spending pressures. In emerging economies, solvency risks are lower, but the composition of public debt remains a source of risk and the fiscal position is weaker than before the crisis.Developed countries;Fiscal sustainability;Public debt;fiscal stress, fiscal vulnerability, fiscal variables, fiscal indicators, government debt, fiscal solvency, fiscal crisis, fiscal risks, short-term debt, net debt, fiscal balances, central bank, debt dynamics, fiscal policy, fiscal position, fiscal monitoring, budget constraint, external debt, sovereign debt, fiscal pressures, foreign debt, fiscal policies, primary fiscal balance, central banks, fiscal outlook, debt service, fiscal balance, fiscal adjustment, debt ratios, tax base, debt servicing, fiscal vulnerabilities, foreign currency debt, tax rates, debt crisis, fiscal imbalances, sovereign bond, domestic currency, debt management, current account, debt burden, fiscal consolidation efforts, fiscal costs, currency risks, fiscal events, fiscal developments, fiscal stance, debt ratio, debt stock, national debt, fiscal affairs, private debt, domestic absorption, fiscal analysis, balance of payment, debt defaults, currency debt, structural fiscal, budget constraints, fiscal affairs department, debt sustainability, fiscal consolidation, fiscal aggregates