Projecting Global Biodiversity Indicators under Future Development Scenarios

To address the ongoing global biodiversity crisis, governments have set strategic objectives and have adopted indicators to monitor progress toward their achievement. Projecting the likely impacts on biodiversity of different policy decisions allows decision makers to understand if and how these targets can be met. We projected trends in two widely used indicators of population abundance Geometric Mean Abundance, equivalent to the Living Planet Index and extinction risk (the Red List Index) under different climate and land-use change scenarios. Testing these on terrestrial carnivore and ungulate species, we found that both indicators decline steadily, and by 2050, under a Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, geometric mean population abundance declines by 18-35% while extinction risk increases for 8-23% of the species, depending on assumptions about species responses to climate change. BAU will therefore fail Convention on Biological Diversity target 12 of improving the conservation status of known threatened species. An alternative sustainable development scenario reduces both extinction risk and population losses compared with BAU and could lead to population increases. Our approach to model species responses to global changes brings the focus of scenarios directly to the species level, thus taking into account an additional dimension of biodiversity and paving the way for including stronger ecological foundations into future biodiversity scenario assessments.Peer reviewe

Cork oak and climate change: disentangling drought effects on cork chemical composition

Climate change induces in the Mediterranean region more frequent and extreme events, namely, heat waves and droughts, disturbing forest species and affecting their productivity and product quality. The cork oak (Quercus suber) is present along the western Mediterranean basin and its outer bark (cork) is sustainably collected and used for several products, mainly wine bottle stoppers. Since most cork properties arise from its chemical composition, this research studies the effect of drought on cork chemical composition (suberin, lignin, polysaccharides and extractives) and on polysaccharide and suberin monomeric composition. Three sets of cork samples, from the same site, were examined: in one set the cork grew without drought; in another two drought events occurred during cork growth and in the third one drought event happened. The results show that, in general, drought does not affect the proportion of the main components of cork, the monomers of suberin or of polysaccharides, with few exceptions e.g. drought increased ethanol extractives and xylose in polysaccharides and decreased arabinose in polysaccharides. The variability associated to the tree is much more relevant than the effect of drought conditions and affects all the parameters analyzed. Therefore, our research suggests that the tree genetic information, or its expression, plays a much more important role on the chemical composition of cork than the drought conditions occurring during cork growth. In practical terms, the potential increased occurrence of droughts arising from climatic changes will not compromise the performance of cork as a sealant for wine bottlesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Implementing a new mathematics curriculum in England: district Research Lesson Study as a driver for student learning, teacher learning and professional dialogue.

Against a backdrop of a transformation in teacher professional development and learning and state school organisation in England this century, this chapter describes a project which harnessed six cycles of Research Lesson Study at school and district level over two years to tailor the implementation of a new statutory curriculum in England to address the professional development needs of teachers and classroom learning needs of London students. It also reports the findings of research carried out during the project into how these teachers learned and developed this new curricular expertise and practice- knowledge through lesson study dialogues that supported student learning. It concludes by proposing future directions for teacher professional learning research and practice

Shifting Global Invasive Potential of European Plants with Climate Change

Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055) climates. As expected from previous studies, projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model, and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However, less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents, and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion, global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species

Plant–soil feedback of native and range-expanding plant species is insensitive to temperature

Temperature change affects many aboveground and belowground ecosystem processes. Here we investigate the effect of a 5°C temperature increase on plant–soil feedback. We compare plant species from a temperate climate region with immigrant plants that originate from warmer regions and have recently shifted their range polewards. We tested whether the magnitude of plant–soil feedback is affected by ambient temperature and whether the effect of temperature differs between these groups of plant species. Six European/Eurasian plant species that recently colonized the Netherlands (non-natives), and six related species (natives) from the Netherlands were selected. Plant–soil feedback of these species was determined by comparing performance in conspecific and heterospecific soils. In order to test the effect of temperature on these plant–soil feedback interactions, the experiments were performed at two greenhouse temperatures of 20/15°C and 25/20°C, respectively. Inoculation with unconditioned soil had the same effect on natives and non-natives. However, the effect of conspecific conditioned soil was negative compared to heterospecific soil for natives, but was positive for non-natives. In both cases, plant–soil interactions were not affected by temperature. Therefore, we conclude that the temperature component of climate change does not affect the direction, or strength of plant–soil feedback, neither for native nor for non-native plant species. However, as the non-natives have a more positive soil feedback than natives, climate warming may introduce new plant species in temperate regions that have less soil-borne control of abundance

Developing a predictive modelling capacity for a climate change-vulnerable blanket bog habitat: Assessing 1961-1990 baseline relationships

Aim: Understanding the spatial distribution of high priority habitats and developing predictive models using climate and environmental variables to replicate these distributions are desirable conservation goals. The aim of this study was to model and elucidate the contributions of climate and topography to the distribution of a priority blanket bog habitat in Ireland, and to examine how this might inform the development of a climate change predictive capacity for peat-lands in Ireland. Methods: Ten climatic and two topographic variables were recorded for grid cells with a spatial resolution of 1010 km, covering 87% of the mainland land surface of Ireland. Presence-absence data were matched to these variables and generalised linear models (GLMs) fitted to identify the main climatic and terrain predictor variables for occurrence of the habitat. Candidate predictor variables were screened for collinearity, and the accuracy of the final fitted GLM was evaluated using fourfold cross-validation based on the area under the curve (AUC) derived from a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. The GLM predicted habitat occurrence probability maps were mapped against the actual distributions using GIS techniques. Results: Despite the apparent parsimony of the initial GLM using only climatic variables, further testing indicated collinearity among temperature and precipitation variables for example. Subsequent elimination of the collinear variables and inclusion of elevation data produced an excellent performance based on the AUC scores of the final GLM. Mean annual temperature and total mean annual precipitation in combination with elevation range were the most powerful explanatory variable group among those explored for the presence of blanket bog habitat. Main conclusions: The results confirm that this habitat distribution in general can be modelled well using the non-collinear climatic and terrain variables tested at the grid resolution used. Mapping the GLM-predicted distribution to the observed distribution produced useful results in replicating the projected occurrence of the habitat distribution over an extensive area. The methods developed will usefully inform future climate change predictive modelling for Irelan

Climate Change and the Future of California's Endemic Flora

The flora of California, a global biodiversity hotspot, includes 2387 endemic plant taxa. With anticipated climate change, we project that up to 66% will experience >80% reductions in range size within a century. These results are comparable with other studies of fewer species or just samples of a region's endemics. Projected reductions depend on the magnitude of future emissions and on the ability of species to disperse from their current locations. California's varied terrain could cause species to move in very different directions, breaking up present-day floras. However, our projections also identify regions where species undergoing severe range reductions may persist. Protecting these potential future refugia and facilitating species dispersal will be essential to maintain biodiversity in the face of climate change

Re-Shuffling of Species with Climate Disruption: A No-Analog Future for California Birds?

By facilitating independent shifts in species' distributions, climate disruption may result in the rapid development of novel species assemblages that challenge the capacity of species to co-exist and adapt. We used a multivariate approach borrowed from paleoecology to quantify the potential change in California terrestrial breeding bird communities based on current and future species-distribution models for 60 focal species. Projections of future no-analog communities based on two climate models and two species-distribution-model algorithms indicate that by 2070 over half of California could be occupied by novel assemblages of bird species, implying the potential for dramatic community reshuffling and altered patterns of species interactions. The expected percentage of no-analog bird communities was dependent on the community scale examined, but consistent geographic patterns indicated several locations that are particularly likely to host novel bird communities in the future. These no-analog areas did not always coincide with areas of greatest projected species turnover. Efforts to conserve and manage biodiversity could be substantially improved by considering not just future changes in the distribution of individual species, but including the potential for unprecedented changes in community composition and unanticipated consequences of novel species assemblages

Geographic range predicts photosynthetic and growth response to warming in co-occurring tree species

www.nature.comPopulations near the warm edge of species ranges may be particularly sensitive to climate change, but lack of empirical data on responses to warming represents a key gap in understanding future range dynamics. Herein we document the impacts of experimental warming on the performance of 11 boreal and temperate forest species that co-occur at the ecotone between these biomes in North America. We measured in situ net photosynthetic carbon gain and growth of >4,100 juvenile trees from local seed sources exposed to a chamberless warming experiment that used infrared heat lamps and soil heating cables to elevate temperatures by +3.4 °C above- and belowground for three growing seasons across 48 plots at two sites. In these ecologically realistic field settings, species growing nearest their warm range limit exhibited reductions in net photosynthesis and growth, whereas species near their cold range limit responded positively to warming. Differences among species in their three-year growth responses to warming parallel their photosynthetic responses to warming, suggesting that leaf-level responses may scale to whole-plant performance. These responses are consistent with the hypothesis, from observational data and models, that warming will reduce the competitive ability of currently dominant southern boreal species compared with locally rarer co-occurring species that dominate warmer neighbouring regions. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved