Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction In Pakistan By Employing Multiple Discriminant Analysis Technique

Aim of this paper is to focus on the utility of traditional financial ratios for predicting bankruptcy of corporate sector of Pakistan. Symptoms of bankruptcy can be judged in any firm long time before. Therefore, a number of methods were developed by researchers to predict and overcome the matter of bankruptcy. Study on Corporate sector of Pakistan was carried out for the period of 2001 to July 2015. Sixteen financial ratios covering different aspects of firms’ profitability, solvency, liquidity position and operational activity were tested as predictive variables for four operating years before bankruptcy. A total number of 38 companies were examined into two equally distributed groups (bankrupt and non-bankrupt group). Financial data were collected from official website of Karachi Stock Exchange and from balance sheets of these institutions published by State Bank of Pakistan. Variables from Altman’s (1993) revised model were taken into account for the study and weight factor is re-estimated. Simultaneously on the other hand Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) techniques are employed to generate a new model for bankruptcy prediction. Altman’s (1993) re-estimated model when employed on failed and non-failed Pakistani firms proved 78.9% and a newly developed model proved 71.1% bankruptcy prediction.   Keywords: corporate sector; bankruptcy prediction; MDA; financial ratios; Altman’s (1993) model; Pakistan

Precipitation Trends over Time Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho Tests in Swat River Basin, Pakistan

Accurately predicting precipitation trends is vital in the economic development of a country. This research investigated precipitation variability across 15 stations in the Swat River basin, Pakistan, over a 51-year study period (1961–2011). Nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR) statistical tests were used to detect trends in monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation, and the trend-free prewhitening approach was applied to eliminate serial correlation in the precipitation time series. The results highlighted a mix of positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) trends in monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation. One station in particular, the Saidu Sharif station, showed the maximum number of significant monthly precipitation events, followed by Abazai, Khairabad, and Malakand. On the seasonal time scale, precipitation trends changed from the summer to the autumn season. The Saidu Sharif station revealed the highest positive trend (7.48 mm/year) in annual precipitation. In the entire Swat River basin, statistically insignificant trends were found in the subbasins for the annual precipitation series; however, the Lower Swat subbasin showed the maximum quantitative increase in the precipitation at a rate of 2.18 mm/year. The performance of the MK and SR tests was consistent at the verified significance level

Drought Trends and Temperature Influence in Zhanghe River Basin, China

Our study area is one of the semiarid region of the China with under water stress condition that causes economic damage. The main objective of this study is to apply standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and to use linear regression to calculate drought conditions in the study area. For this purpose, data from 1980 to 2010 was analyzed at different (1, 6, 12, and 24 months) time scales. Results depicted both dry and wet periods in the study area; occurrence of dry span with different frequency and magnitude was increased over last decades (2000–2010) at most of the stations. Statistical results demonstrated that temperature was decreased in the 1st decade in most of stations but in two decades from 1990 to 2000 and 2001 to 2010, temperature was increased except in Changzhi station. These results could be a future reference for developing information programs about monitoring and early drought information, planning of existing reservoirs, and management of water resources under climate conditions

Drought Trends and Temperature Influence in Zhanghe River Basin, China

Our study area is one of the semiarid region of the China with under water stress condition that causes economic damage. The main objective of this study is to apply standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and to use linear regression to calculate drought conditions in the study area. For this purpose, data from 1980 to 2010 was analyzed at different (1, 6, 12, and 24 months) time scales. Results depicted both dry and wet periods in the study area; occurrence of dry span with different frequency and magnitude was increased over last decades (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) at most of the stations. Statistical results demonstrated that temperature was decreased in the 1st decade in most of stations but in two decades from 1990 to 2000 and 2001 to 2010, temperature was increased except in Changzhi station. These results could be a future reference for developing information programs about monitoring and early drought information, planning of existing reservoirs, and management of water resources under climate conditions

Effects of Land Use and Slope Gradient on Soil Erosion in a Red Soil Hilly Watershed of Southern China

A study was undertaken to develop an appropriate plan of land use under suitable slope gradient to control soil erosion from a red soil hilly watershed of southern China by using the GeoWEPP (Geo-spatial Interface for the Water Erosion Prediction Project) model. The model was calibrated and validated using monitoring data of the outlet from 2010 to 2012, in which the 2010 and 2012 annual total runoff and sediment yield data were used for calibration, and the 2011 monthly runoff and sediment yield data for validation. The performance of the model in validation period were good with a high coefficient of determination values of 0.98 and 0.93 and Nash-Sutcliffe simulations of 0.96 and 0.91 while low root mean square error values of 6.91 mm and 0.35 t respectively for runoff and sediment yield. Subsequently, the model was used to simulate four typical land use (forest, farm, orchard, and fallow land) in the study area to evaluate their impacts on soil erosion production. The results showed that the runoff decreased by 44.7% and 61.1% for forest and orchard land compared to the current land use, as well as the sediment yield decreased by 43.7% and 68.6%. While the runoff and sediment yield increased by 52.2% and 42.6% for farm land, and 48.8% and 29.6% for fallow land. As the same time, soil erosion increased with increasing of the slope gradient of the quadratic regression equation for all land use. The critical slope gradient of 15° for returning the farmland to forest or others is suitable in the red soil region but is not accurate. The result of the study provides good scientific evidence for developing an appropriate plan of land use in the watershed and other similar areas

Inclusion of Blend of L-lysine, DL-Methionine and Vitamins D3, E in Diets for Broiler; Effects on Growth Performance, Feed Intake and Conversion and Water Intake

The blend comprising of L-lysine, DL-methionine and vitamins D3, E in diets evaluated for growth performance, water intake, feed consumption and conversion ratio and live body weight in broiler was investigated. The study was performed on 360 day old broiler chickens and divided into four groups i.e. A (control), B,C and D (30 chickens in each group) randomly. The birds were fed blend in the diets; group B (40gm / 50 kg feed), group C (80 gm / 50 kg feed) and group D (120 gm / 50 kg feed). The growth parameters of broilers were significant (

Inclusion of Blend of L-lysine, DL-Methionine and Vitamins D3, E in Diets for Broiler; Effects on Growth Performance, Feed Intake and Conversion and Water Intake.

The blend comprising of L-lysine, DL-methionine and vitamins D3, E in diets evaluated for growth performance, water intake, feed consumption and conversion ratio and live body weight in broiler was investigated. The study was performed on 360 day old broiler chickens and divided into four groups i.e. A (control), B,C and D (30 chickens in each group) randomly. The birds were fed blend in the diets; group B (40gm / 50 kg feed), group C (80 gm / 50 kg feed) and group D (120 gm / 50 kg feed). The growth parameters of broilers were significant (

Evaluation of Physico-Mechanical Characteristics of Different Paddy Cultivars Grown in Humid Subtropical Region of Eastern China

Background: Paddy during various stages i.e. loading, transportation, storage, handling etc. occurs severe losses, which can be reduced by designing appropriate post-harvest machineries using physico-mechanical properties. Objectives: The study aimed to assess the variation in physico-mechanical properties of thirteen different paddy cultivars. Methodology: The study was carried out at the College of Engineering, Nanjing Agricultural University, China. Thirteen different freshly harvested paddy cultivars were collected from Nanjing. Collected paddy cultivars before experiment were cleaned removing extraneous materials. Paddy cultivars were sealed polythene bags, and were then kept in refrigerator at a temperature of 5 ºC for 7 days for uniform distribution of moisture. The required amount of samples from each cultivar was accordingly taken for evaluating their physical and mechanical properties. Results: The results when assessed were statistically different (p?0.05) from each other. The average values of different paddy cultivars for length, width, thickness, geometric mean diameter, arithmetic mean diameter, square mean diameter, equivalent diameter, surface area, volume, sphericity, aspect ratio, thousand kernel weight, bulk density, true density, porosity, hardness and toughness (for both horizontal and vertical orientations) were calculated to be 7.94mm, 3.32mm, 2.26mm, 3.84mm, 4.51mm, 2.56mm, 3.64mm, 46.53mm2, 29.74mm3, 0.49%, 0.42, 28.64 gm, 568.31 kg m-3, 1225.20 kg m-3, 54%, 46.09 N, 14.75 N, 16.06 mJ and 6.90 mJ respectively. Conclusion: A wide variation was observed for each parameter while comparing different paddy cultivars. This wide variation in result will negatively affect the performance of the equipment and machinery being used for post-harvest practices. The study concludes that it is essential for industries involved in equipment design and machinery production, as well as end-users responsible for their implementation, to take into account these substantial differences among cultivars when making their decisions