From Social Data Mining to Forecasting Socio-Economic Crisis

Socio-economic data mining has a great potential in terms of gaining a better understanding of problems that our economy and society are facing, such as financial instability, shortages of resources, or conflicts. Without large-scale data mining, progress in these areas seems hard or impossible. Therefore, a suitable, distributed data mining infrastructure and research centers should be built in Europe. It also appears appropriate to build a network of Crisis Observatories. They can be imagined as laboratories devoted to the gathering and processing of enormous volumes of data on both natural systems such as the Earth and its ecosystem, as well as on human techno-socio-economic systems, so as to gain early warnings of impending events. Reality mining provides the chance to adapt more quickly and more accurately to changing situations. Further opportunities arise by individually customized services, which however should be provided in a privacy-respecting way. This requires the development of novel ICT (such as a self- organizing Web), but most likely new legal regulations and suitable institutions as well. As long as such regulations are lacking on a world-wide scale, it is in the public interest that scientists explore what can be done with the huge data available. Big data do have the potential to change or even threaten democratic societies. The same applies to sudden and large-scale failures of ICT systems. Therefore, dealing with data must be done with a large degree of responsibility and care. Self-interests of individuals, companies or institutions have limits, where the public interest is affected, and public interest is not a sufficient justification to violate human rights of individuals. Privacy is a high good, as confidentiality is, and damaging it would have serious side effects for society.Comment: 65 pages, 1 figure, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

Using a pragmatically adapted, low-cost contingency management intervention to promote heroin abstinence in individuals undergoing treatment for heroin use disorder in UK drug services (PRAISE): a cluster randomised trial

Introduction: Most individuals treated for heroin use disorder receive opioid agonist treatment (OAT)(methadone or buprenorphine). However, OAT is associated with high attrition and persistent, occasional heroin use. There is some evidence for the effectiveness of contingency management (CM), a behavioural intervention involving modest financial incentives, in encouraging drug abstinence when applied adjunctively with OAT. UK drug services have a minimal track record of applying CM and limited resources to implement it. We assessed a CM intervention pragmatically adapted for ease of implementation in UK drug services to promote heroin abstinence among individuals receiving OAT. Design: Cluster randomised controlled trial. Setting and participants: 552 adults with heroin use disorder (target 660) enrolled from 34 clusters (drug treatment clinics) in England between November 2012 and October 2015. Interventions: Clusters were randomly allocated 1:1:1 to OAT plus 12× weekly appointments with: (1) CM targeted at opiate abstinence at appointments (CM Abstinence); (2) CM targeted at on-time attendance at appointments (CM Attendance); or (3) no CM (treatment as usual; TAU). Modifications included monitoring behaviour weekly and fixed incentives schedule. Measurements: Primary outcome: heroin abstinence measured by heroin-free urines (weeks 9–12). Secondary outcomes: heroin abstinence 12 weeks after discontinuation of CM (weeks 21–24); attendance; self-reported drug use, physical and mental health. Results: CM Attendance was superior to TAU in encouraging heroin abstinence. Odds of a heroin-negative urine in weeks 9–12 was statistically significantly greater in CM Attendance compared with TAU (OR=2.1; 95% CI 1.1 to 3.9; p=0.030). CM Abstinence was not superior to TAU (OR=1.6; 95% CI 0.9 to 3.0; p=0.146) or CM Attendance (OR=1.3; 95% CI 0.7 to 2.4; p=0.438) (not statistically significant differences). Reductions in heroin use were not sustained at 21–24 weeks. No differences between groups in self-reported heroin use. Conclusions: A pragmatically adapted CM intervention for routine use in UK drug services was moderately effective in encouraging heroin abstinence compared with no CM only when targeted at attendance. CM targeted at abstinence was not effective. Trial registration number: ISRCTN 01591254

Positive reinforcement targeting abstinence in substance misuse (PRAISe): Study protocol for a Cluster RCT & process evaluation of contingency management

There are approximately 256,000 heroin and other opiate users in England of whom 155,000 are in treatment for heroin (or opiate) addiction. The majority of people in treatment receive opiate substitution treatment (OST) (methadone and buprenorphine). However, OST suffers from high attrition and persistent heroin use even whilst in treatment. Contingency management (CM) is a psychological intervention based on the principles of operant conditioning. It is delivered as an adjunct to existing evidence based treatments to amplify patient benefit and involves the systematic application of positive reinforcement (financial or material incentives) to promote behaviours consistent with treatment goals. With an international evidence base for CM, NICE recommended that CM be implemented in UK drug treatment settings alongside OST to target attendance and the reduction of illicit drug use. While there was a growing evidence base for CM, there had been no examination of its delivery in UK NHS addiction services. The PRAISe trial evaluates the feasibility, acceptability, clinical and cost effectiveness of CM in UK addiction services. It is a cluster randomised controlled effectiveness trial of CM (praise and financial incentives) targeted at either abstinence from opiates or attendance at treatment sessions versus no CM among individuals receiving OST. The trial includes an economic evaluation which explores the relative costs and cost effectiveness of the two CM intervention strategies compared to TAU and an embedded process evaluation to identify contextual factors and causal mechanisms associated with variations in outcome. This study will inform UK drug treatment policy and practice. Trial registration ISRCTN 01591254

Exploring Cell Tropism as a Possible Contributor to Influenza Infection Severity

Several mechanisms have been proposed to account for the marked increase in severity of human infections with avian compared to human influenza strains, including increased cytokine expression, poor immune response, and differences in target cell receptor affinity. Here, the potential effect of target cell tropism on disease severity is studied using a mathematical model for in-host influenza viral infection in a cell population consisting of two different cell types. The two cell types differ only in their susceptibility to infection and rate of virus production. We show the existence of a parameter regime which is characterized by high viral loads sustained long after the onset of infection. This finding suggests that differences in cell tropism between influenza strains could be sufficient to cause significant differences in viral titer profiles, similar to those observed in infections with certain strains of influenza A virus. The two target cell mathematical model offers good agreement with experimental data from severe influenza infections, as does the usual, single target cell model albeit with biologically unrealistic parameters. Both models predict that while neuraminidase inhibitors and adamantanes are only effective when administered early to treat an uncomplicated seasonal infection, they can be effective against more severe influenza infections even when administered late

Using a pragmatically adapted, low-cost contingency management intervention to promote heroin abstinence in individuals undergoing treatment for heroin use disorder in UK drug services (PRAISE): a cluster randomised trial

Introduction: Most individuals treated for heroin use disorder receive opioid agonist treatment (OAT)(methadone or buprenorphine). However, OAT is associated with high attrition and persistent, occasional heroin use. There is some evidence for the effectiveness of contingency management (CM), a behavioural intervention involving modest financial incentives, in encouraging drug abstinence when applied adjunctively with OAT. UK drug services have a minimal track record of applying CM and limited resources to implement it. We assessed a CM intervention pragmatically adapted for ease of implementation in UK drug services to promote heroin abstinence among individuals receiving OAT. Design: Cluster randomised controlled trial. Setting and participants: 552 adults with heroin use disorder (target 660) enrolled from 34 clusters (drug treatment clinics) in England between November 2012 and October 2015. Interventions: Clusters were randomly allocated 1:1:1 to OAT plus 12× weekly appointments with: (1) CM targeted at opiate abstinence at appointments (CM Abstinence); (2) CM targeted at on-time attendance at appointments (CM Attendance); or (3) no CM (treatment as usual; TAU). Modifications included monitoring behaviour weekly and fixed incentives schedule. Measurements: Primary outcome: heroin abstinence measured by heroin-free urines (weeks 9–12). Secondary outcomes: heroin abstinence 12 weeks after discontinuation of CM (weeks 21–24); attendance; self-reported drug use, physical and mental health. Results: CM Attendance was superior to TAU in encouraging heroin abstinence. Odds of a heroin-negative urine in weeks 9–12 was statistically significantly greater in CM Attendance compared with TAU (OR=2.1; 95% CI 1.1 to 3.9; p=0.030). CM Abstinence was not superior to TAU (OR=1.6; 95% CI 0.9 to 3.0; p=0.146) or CM Attendance (OR=1.3; 95% CI 0.7 to 2.4; p=0.438) (not statistically significant differences). Reductions in heroin use were not sustained at 21–24 weeks. No differences between groups in self-reported heroin use. Conclusions: A pragmatically adapted CM intervention for routine use in UK drug services was moderately effective in encouraging heroin abstinence compared with no CM only when targeted at attendance. CM targeted at abstinence was not effective. Trial registration number: ISRCTN 01591254

Influence of the N terminus on the Biophysical Properties and Pharmacology of TREK1 Potassium Channels

TWIK-related K+ 1 (TREK1) potassium channels are members of the two-pore domain potassium channel family and contribute to background potassium conductances in many cell types, where their activity can be regulated by a variety of physiologic and pharmacologic mediators. Fenamates such as FFA (flufenamic acid; 2-{[3-(trifluoromethyl)phenyl]amino}benzoic acid), MFA [mefenamic acid; 2-(2,3-dimethylphenyl)aminobenzoic acid], NFA [niflumic acid; 2-{[3-(trifluoromethyl)phenyl]amino}nicotinic acid], and diclofenac [2-(2-(2,6-dichlorophenylamino)phenyl)acetic acid] and the related experimental drug BL-1249 [(5,6,7,8-tetrahydro-naphthalen-1-yl)-[2-(1H-tetrazol-5-yl)-phenyl]-amine] enhance the activity of TREK1 currents, and we show that BL-1249 is the most potent of these compounds. Alternative translation initiation produces a shorter, N terminus truncated form of TREK1 with a much reduced open probability and a proposed increased permeability to sodium compared with the longer form. We show that both forms of TREK1 can be activated by fenamates and that a number of mutations that affect TREK1 channel gating occlude the action of fenamates but only in the longer form of TREK1. Furthermore, fenamates produce a marked enhancement of current through the shorter, truncated form of TREK1 and reveal a K+-selective channel, like the long form. These results provide insight into the mechanism of TREK1 channel activation by fenamates, and, given the role of TREK1 channels in pain, they suggest a novel analgesic mechanism for these compounds

Strategic Treatment Interruptions During Imatinib Treatment of Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia

Although imatinib is an effective treatment for chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML), and nearly all patients treated with imatinib attain some form of remission, imatinib does not completely eliminate leukemia. Moreover, if the imatinib treatment is stopped, most patients eventually relapse (Cortes et al. in Clin. Cancer Res. 11:3425–3432, 2005). In Kim et al. (PLoS Comput. Biol. 4(6):e1000095, 2008), the authors presented a mathematical model for the dynamics of CML under imatinib treatment that incorporates the anti-leukemia immune response. We use the mathematical model in Kim et al. (PLoS Comput. Biol. 4(6):e1000095, 2008) to study and numerically simulate strategic treatment interruptions as a potential therapeutic strategy for CML patients. We present the results of numerous simulated treatment programs in which imatinib treatment is temporarily stopped to stimulate and leverage the anti-leukemia immune response to combat CML. The simulations presented in this paper imply that treatment programs that involve strategic treatment interruptions may prevent leukemia from relapsing and may prevent remission for significantly longer than continuous imatinib treatment. Moreover, in many cases, strategic treatment interruptions may completely eliminate leukemic cells from the body. Thus, strategic treatment interruptions may be a feasible clinical approach to enhancing the effects of imatinib treatment for CML. We study the effects of both the timing and the duration of the treatment interruption on the results of the treatment. We also present a sensitivity analysis of the results to the parameters in the mathematical model

Positive reinforcement targeting abstinence in substance misuse (PRAISe): Study protocol for a Cluster RCT & process evaluation of contingency management

There are approximately 256,000 heroin and other opiate users in England of whom 155,000 are in treatment for heroin (or opiate) addiction. The majority of people in treatment receive opiate substitution treatment (OST) (methadone and buprenorphine). However, OST suffers from high attrition and persistent heroin use even whilst in treatment. Contingency management (CM) is a psychological intervention based on the principles of operant conditioning. It is delivered as an adjunct to existing evidence based treatments to amplify patient benefit and involves the systematic application of positive reinforcement (financial or material incentives) to promote behaviours consistent with treatment goals. With an international evidence base for CM, NICE recommended that CM be implemented in UK drug treatment settings alongside OST to target attendance and the reduction of illicit drug use. While there was a growing evidence base for CM, there had been no examination of its delivery in UK NHS addiction services. The PRAISe trial evaluates the feasibility, acceptability, clinical and cost effectiveness of CM in UK addiction services. It is a cluster randomised controlled effectiveness trial of CM (praise and financial incentives) targeted at either abstinence from opiates or attendance at treatment sessions versus no CM among individuals receiving OST. The trial includes an economic evaluation which explores the relative costs and cost effectiveness of the two CM intervention strategies compared to TAU and an embedded process evaluation to identify contextual factors and causal mechanisms associated with variations in outcome. This study will inform UK drug treatment policy and practice