The Russian default and the contagion to Brazil.

This paper investigates the contagion from Russia to Brazil in late 1998 under two dimensions players involved and the timing of events. The data does not seem to reflect a compensatory liquidation of assets story by international institutional investors. It does contribute, however, to the suspicion that the contagion was triggered by foreign investors panicking from the Russian crisis, and joining local residents on their speculation against the Brazilian real. Adjusted correlations in the Brady market increase significantly during the crisis, which lends support to the view that if there was a contagion from Russia to Brazil, the most likely place of the transmission was the off-shore Brady market. Finally, the paper does not support the hypothesis that it was the liquidity crisis in mature markets, and not the Russian crisis, that timed the crisis in Brazil.

Monetary policy in the aftermath of currency crisis: the case of Asia

This paper evaluates monetary policy and its relationship with the exchange rate in the five Asian crisis countries. The findings are compared to previous currency crises in recent history. The paper finds that there is no evidence of overly tight monetary policy in the Asian crisis countries in 1997 and early 1998. There is also no evidence that high interest rates led to weaker exchange rates. The usual trade-off between inflation and output when raising interest rates suggested the need for a softer monetary policy in the crisis countries to combat recession. However, in some countries, corporate balance sheet considerations suggested the need to reverse overly depreciated currencies through firmer monetary policy.

Financial market contagion in the Asian crisis

This paper tests for evidence of contagion between the financial markets of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, and the Philippines. Cross-country correlations among currencies and sovereign spreads are found to increase significantly during the crisis period, whereas the equity market correlations offer mixed evidence. A set of dummy variables using daily news is constructed to capture the impact of own-country and cross-border news on the markets. After controlling for own-country news and other fundamentals, the paper shows evidence of cross-border contagion in the currency and equity markets.

Geriatric patients' expectations of their physicians: findings from a tertiary care hospital in Pakistan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Geriatric health is a neglected and under-explored area internationally and in Pakistan. We aimed to ascertain the expectations of the geriatric patients from their physicians and the factors associated with patient satisfaction in this particular age bracket.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional survey was carried out at a tertiary care teaching hospital in Karachi, Pakistan. Data collection was carried out via face-to-face interviews based on structured, pre-tested questionnaires. All consenting individuals aged 65 years or above were recruited into the study. Convenience sampling was used to draw the sample. The data was analyzed using SPSS version 16. Geriatric patient's expectations from physicians were elicited using a set of 11 questions that were graded on a scale of 1-3 where 1 = not important, 2 = important, 3 = very important.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Three hundred and eighty geriatric patients were interviewed. The response rate of this study was 89.8%. The mean age of the respondents was 73.4 ± 6.8 years. Two hundred and forty eight respondents (65.3%) were female. Diabetes mellitus (53.7%), hypertension (59.5%), arthritis (40.5%) and renal disease (32.1%) were common ailments among geriatric patients. More than 50% of the patients were visiting their physicians once every two to three months. Discussing treatment options and letting patients make the final decision (79.2%), prescribing minimum possible medications (84.5%), physician's holistic knowledge about the spectrum of care issues for geriatric patients (79.2%), being given a realistic but optimistic picture of future health by physicians (85.5%) were ranked as very important expectations by patients from their physicians. Cumulative household income (p = 0.005), most important health complaint (p = 0.01) and frequency of experiencing health complaint (p < 0.001) emerged as independent predictors of the satisfaction of geriatric patients from care provided by physicians.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We have documented the expectations of the geriatric patients from their physicians in a developing country. Physicians belonging to all disciplines should keep these expectations in mind during clinical encounters with geriatric patients.</p

Taking MT evaluation metrics to extremes : beyond correlation with human judgments

Automatic Machine Translation (MT) evaluation is an active field of research, with a handful of new metrics devised every year. Evaluation metrics are generally benchmarked against manual assessment of translation quality, with performance measured in terms of overall correlation with human scores. Much work has been dedicated to the improvement of evaluation metrics to achieve a higher correlation with human judgments. However, little insight has been provided regarding the weaknesses and strengths of existing approaches and their behavior in different settings. In this work we conduct a broad meta-evaluation study of the performance of a wide range of evaluation metrics focusing on three major aspects. First, we analyze the performance of the metrics when faced with different levels of translation quality, proposing a local dependency measure as an alternative to the standard, global correlation coefficient. We show that metric performance varies significantly across different levels of MT quality: Metrics perform poorly when faced with low-quality translations and are not able to capture nuanced quality distinctions. Interestingly, we show that evaluating low-quality translations is also more challenging for humans. Second, we show that metrics are more reliable when evaluating neural MT than the traditional statistical MT systems. Finally, we show that the difference in the evaluation accuracy for different metrics is maintained even if the gold standard scores are based on different criteria

Characterizing Exchange Rate Regimes in Post-Crisis East Asia

This paper examines the behavior of the exchange rates of selected emerging market East Asian economies in the aftermath of the Asian crisis. The results suggest that movements in the Asia-5 currencies (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand) were significantly influenced by the U.S. dollar''s day-to-day movements before the crisis, and have indeed continued to do so post-crisis. However, comparisons with a range of other currencies suggest that this is a fairly common trait across various regimes. Moreover, results from the post-crisis data do not support the view that the Asia-5 currencies presently have the same characteristics as they did before the crisis.

Understanding the Costs of Deflation in the Japanese Context

This paper examines the cost of deflation in the context of Japan''s ongoing deflationary episode. The impact of deflation owing to the zero interest rate bound on monetary policy, wage rigidity, redistribution of wealth from debtor to creditor, and inflexibilities in the financial sector are examined. It is seen that the generalized decline in the Japanese price level, however gradual or mild, has substantially exacerbated the economy''s adjustment process under already difficult economic conditions.Financial sector;inflation, monetary policy, price level, central bank, real interest rate, gdp deflator, aggregate demand, real wages, monetary fund, inflation rate, price stability, real value, low inflation, inflation target, nominal interest rates, real interest rates, monetary base, rate of inflation, financial stability, real output, inflationary pressures, real rates, loose monetary policy, average inflation, real rate of interest, monetary authorities, value of money, price deflation, tight monetary policy, money market, inflationary expectations, average inflation rate, liquidity management, inflation data, terms of trade, percent inflation