Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area

Expectations and uncertainty play a key role in economic behavior. This paper deals with both, expectations and uncertainty derived from the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters. Given the strong turbulences that the euro area macroeconomic indicators observe since 2007, the aim of the paper is to check whether there is any room for improvement of the consensus forecast accuracy for GDP growth and inflation when accounting for uncertainty. We propose a new measure of uncertainty, alternative to the ad hoc equal weights commonly used, based on principal components. We test the role of uncertainty in forecasting macroeconomic performance in the euro area between 2005 and 2015. We also check the role of surprises in the considered forecasting sampleMinisterio de Economía y CompetitividadFinancial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, project numbers ECO2015-70331-C2-1-R, ECO2015-66593-P and ECO2014-56676C2-2-P and Universidad de Alcalá is acknowledged

Evaluating a selective prevention programme for binge drinking among young adolescents: study protocol of a randomized controlled trial

Contains fulltext : 99319.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)Background In comparison to other Europe countries, Dutch adolescents are at the top in drinking frequency and binge drinking. A total of 75% of the Dutch 12 to 16 year olds who drink alcohol also engage in binge drinking. A prevention programme called Preventure was developed in Canada to prevent adolescents from binge drinking. This article describes a study that aims to assess the effects of this selective school-based prevention programme in the Netherlands. Methods A randomized controlled trial is being conducted among 13 to 15-year-old adolescents in secondary schools. Schools were randomly assigned to the intervention and control conditions. The intervention condition consisted of two 90 minute group sessions, carried out at the participants' schools and provided by a qualified counsellor and a co-facilitator. The intervention targeted young adolescents who demonstrated personality risk for alcohol abuse. The group sessions were adapted to four personality profiles. The control condition received no further intervention above the standard substance use education sessions provided in the Dutch national curriculum. The primary outcomes will be the percentage reduction in binge drinking, weekly drinking and drinking-related problems after three specified time periods. A screening survey collected data by means of an Internet questionnaire. Students have completed, or will complete, a post-treatment survey after 2, 6, and 12 months, also by means of an online questionnaire. Discussion This study protocol presents the design and current implementation of a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of a selective alcohol prevention programme. We expect that a significantly lower number of adolescents will binge drink, drink weekly, and have drinking-related problems in the intervention condition compared to the control condition, as a result of this intervention.9 p

Transcriptome Analysis of Epithelial and Stromal Contributions to Mammogenesis in Three Week Prepartum Cows

Transcriptome analysis of bovine mammary development has provided insight into regulation of mammogenesis. However, previous studies primarily examined expression of epithelial and stromal tissues combined, and consequently did not account for tissue specific contribution to mammary development. Our objective was to identify differences in gene expression in epithelial and intralobular stromal compartments. Tissue was biopsied from non-lactating dairy cows 3 weeks prepartum, cut into explants and incubated for 2 hr with insulin and hydrocortisone. Epithelial and intralobular stromal tissues were isolated with laser capture microdissection. Global gene expression was measured with Bovine Affymetrix GeneChips, and data were preprocessed using RMA method. Moderated t-tests from gene-specific linear model analysis with cell type as a fixed effect showed more than 3,000 genes were differentially expressed between tissues (P<0.05; FDR<0.17). Analysis of epithelial and stromal transcriptomes using Database for Annotation, Visualization and Integrated Discovery (DAVID) and Ingenuity Pathways Analysis (IPA) showed that epithelial and stromal cells contributed distinct molecular signatures. Epithelial signatures were enriched with gene sets for protein synthesis, metabolism and secretion. Stromal signatures were enriched with genes that encoded molecules important to signaling, extracellular matrix composition and remodeling. Transcriptome differences also showed evidence for paracrine interactions between tissues in stimulation of IGF1 signaling pathway, stromal reaction, angiogenesis, neurogenesis, and immune response. Molecular signatures point to the dynamic role the stroma plays in prepartum mammogenesis and highlight the importance of examining the roles of cell types within the mammary gland when targeting therapies and studying mechanisms that affect milk production

Methodological issues in cross-cultural research

Regardless of whether the research goal is to establish cultural universals or to identify and explain cross-cultural differences, researchers need measures that are comparable across different cultures when conducting cross-cultural studies. In this chapter, we describe two major strategies for enhancing cross-cultural comparability. First, we discuss a priori methods to ensure the comparability of data in cross-cultural surveys. In particular, we review findings on cross-cultural differences based on the psychology of survey response and provide suggestions on how to deal with these cultural differences in the survey design stage. Second, we discuss post hoc methods to ascertain data comparability and enable comparisons in the presence of threats to equivalence

Scoring method of a Situational Judgment Test:influence on internal consistency reliability, adverse impact and correlation with personality?

textabstractSituational Judgment Tests (SJTs) are increasingly used for medical school selection. Scoring an SJT is more complicated than scoring a knowledge test, because there are no objectively correct answers. The scoring method of an SJT may influence the construct and concurrent validity and the adverse impact with respect to non-traditional students. Previous research has compared only a small number of scoring methods and has not studied the effect of scoring method on internal consistency reliability. This study compared 28 different scoring methods for a rating SJT on internal consistency reliability, adverse impact and correlation with personality. The scoring methods varied on four aspects: the way of controlling for systematic error, and the type of reference group, distance and central tendency statistic. All scoring methods were applied to a previously validated integrity-based SJT, administered to 931 medical school applicants. Internal consistency reliability varied between .33 and .73, which is likely explained by the dependence of coefficient alpha on the total score variance. All scoring methods led to significantly higher scores for the ethnic majority than for the non-Western minorities, with effect sizes ranging from 0.48 to 0.66. Eighteen scoring methods showed a significant small positive correlation with agreeableness. Four scoring methods showed a significant small positive correlation with conscientiousness. The way of controlling for systematic error was the most influential scoring method aspect. These results suggest that the increased use of SJTs for selection into medical school must be accompanied by a thorough examination of the scoring method to be used

The role of the myosin ATPase activity in adaptive thermogenesis by skeletal muscle

Resting skeletal muscle is a major contributor to adaptive thermogenesis, i.e., the thermogenesis that changes in response to exposure to cold or to overfeeding. The identification of the “furnace” that is responsible for increased heat generation in resting muscle has been the subject of a number of investigations. A new state of myosin, the super relaxed state (SRX), with a very slow ATP turnover rate has recently been observed in skeletal muscle (Stewart et al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107:430–435, 2010). Inhibition of the myosin ATPase activity in the SRX was suggested to be caused by binding of the myosin head to the core of the thick filament in a structural motif identified earlier by electron microscopy. To be compatible with the basal metabolic rate observed in vivo for resting muscle, most myosin heads would have to be in the SRX. Modulation of the population of this state, relative to the normal relaxed state, was proposed to be a major contributor to adaptive thermogenesis in resting muscle. Transfer of only 20% of myosin heads from the SRX into the normal relaxed state would cause muscle thermogenesis to double. Phosphorylation of the myosin regulatory light chain was shown to transfer myosin heads from the SRX into the relaxed state, which would increase thermogenesis. In particular, thermogenesis by myosin has been proposed to play a role in the dissipation of calories during overfeeding. Up-regulation of muscle thermogenesis by pharmaceuticals that target the SRX would provide new approaches to the treatment of obesity or high blood sugar levels

An evaluation of 9-1-1 calls to assess the effectiveness of dispatch-assisted cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) instructions: design and methodology

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cardiac arrest is the leading cause of mortality in Canada, and the overall survival rate for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest rarely exceeds 5%. Bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) has been shown to increase survival for cardiac arrest victims. However, bystander CPR rates remain low in Canada, rarely exceeding 15%, despite various attempts to improve them. Dispatch-assisted CPR instructions have the potential to improve rates of bystander CPR and many Canadian urban communities now offer instructions to callers reporting a victim in cardiac arrest. Dispatch-assisted CPR instructions are recommended by the International Guidelines on Emergency Cardiovascular Care, but their ability to improve cardiac arrest survival remains unclear.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The overall goal of this study is to better understand the factors leading to successful dispatch-assisted CPR instructions and to ultimately save the lives of more cardiac arrest patients. The study will utilize a before-after, prospective cohort design to specifically: 1) Determine the ability of 9-1-1 dispatchers to correctly diagnose cardiac arrest; 2) Quantify the frequency and impact of perceived agonal breathing on cardiac arrest diagnosis; 3) Measure the frequency with which dispatch-assisted CPR instructions can be successfully completed; and 4) Measure the impact of dispatch-assisted CPR instructions on bystander CPR and survival rates.</p> <p>The study will be conducted in 19 urban communities in Ontario, Canada. All 9-1-1 calls occurring in the study communities reporting out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in victims 16 years of age or older for which resuscitation was attempted will be eligible. Information will be obtained from 9-1-1 call recordings, paramedic patient care reports, base hospital records, fire medical records and hospital medical records. Victim, caller and system characteristics will be measured in the study communities before the introduction of dispatch-assisted CPR instructions (before group), during the introduction (run-in phase), and following the introduction (after group).</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The study will obtain information essential to the development of clinical trials that will test a variety of educational approaches and delivery methods for telephone cardiopulmonary resuscitation instructions. This will be the first study in the world to clearly quantify the impact of dispatch-assisted CPR instructions on survival to hospital discharge for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest victims.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00664443</p

Mental and substance use disorders from early adolescence to young adulthood among indigenous young people: Final diagnostic results from an 8-year panel study

Objective: Our objective was to investigate change in prevalence rates for mental and substance abuse disorders between early adolescence and young adulthood in a cohort of indigenous adolescents who participated in an 8-year panel study.Method: The data are from a lagged, sequential study of 671 indigenous adolescents (Wave 1) from a single culture in the Northern Midwest USA and Canada. At Wave 1 (mean age 11.3 years, Wave 4 (mean age 14.3 years), Wave 6 (mean age 16.2 years), and at Wave 8 (mean age 18.3 years) the tribally enrolled adolescents completed a computer-assisted personal interview that included DISC-R assessment for 11 diagnoses. Our yearly retention rates by diagnostic wave were: Wave 2, 94.7 %; Wave 4, 87.7 %; Wave 6, 88.0 %; Wave 8, 78.5 %.Results: The findings show a dramatic increase in lifetime prevalence rates for substance use disorders. By young adulthood, over half had met criteria of substance abuse or dependence disorder. Also at young adulthood, 58.2 % had met lifetime criteria of a single substance use or mental disorder and 37.2 % for two or more substance use or mental disorders. The results are compared to other indigenous diagnostic studies and to the general population.Conclusions: A mental health crisis exists within the indigenous populations that participated in this study. Innovations within current mental health service systems are needed to address the unmet demand of adolescents and families.Peer reviewedSociolog

Inflammation and breast cancer. Metalloproteinases as common effectors of inflammation and extracellular matrix breakdown in breast cancer

Two rapidly evolving fields are converging to impact breast cancer: one has identified novel substrates of metalloproteinases that alter immune cell function, and the other has revealed a role for inflammation in human cancers. Evidence now shows that the mechanisms underlying these two fields interact in the context of breast cancer, providing new opportunities to understand this disease and uncover novel therapeutic strategies. The metalloproteinase class of enzymes is well studied in mammary gland development and physiology, but mostly in the context of extracellular matrix modification. Aberrant metalloproteinase expression has also been implicated in breast cancer progression, where these genes act as tumor modifiers. Here, we review how the metalloproteinase axis impacts mammary physiology and tumorigenesis and is associated with inflammatory cell influx in human breast cancer, and evaluate its potential as a regulator of inflammation in the mammary gland