L'adaptation au changement climatique dans le bassin de Tensift au Maroc par une gestion améliorée du bassin versant et le paiement pour les services environnementaux - rapport final

Ce projet bénéficie d'une subvention du Centre de recherches pour le développement international (CRDI), Ottawa, Canada.Le défi que le présent projet de recherche a essayé de relever est de trouver des pistes pour repenser la GIRE dans un contexte du changement climatique, tout en prenant en considération le maintien de la production des biens et services environnementaux. Ceci ne pourra se réaliser qu’à travers des actions permettant de prendre en considération la donne climatique et les instruments basés sur le marché (e.g. le Paiement pour les Services Environnementaux (PSE)) dans les politiques de gestion de l’eau

Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply and Demand in Rheraya Watershed (Morocco), with Potential Adaptation Strategies

Rheraya watershed already suffers from the impacts of climate variability and will be further affected by climate change. Severe water shortages and extremely fragile ecological conditions necessitate careful attention to water resources management. The aim of this study is to analyze Rheraya’s future water situation under different scenarios of socio-economic development and climate change until 2100. The Water Evaluation and Planning System model (WEAP) has been applied to estimate the current water demands and the increased water demands resulting from climate change. WEAP was calibrated using meteorological and demand observations, then, updated with present-day and future climatic conditions using the Statistical Down-scaling Model with two projections (A2, B2) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Those projections show an increase in temperature of about 2–3 °C and a reduction in precipitation of 40–60% with respect to baseline. The results show that the pressure on Rheraya’s water resources will increase, leading to greater competition for surface water, and that domestic, tourist, livestock and agricultural demands will not be met by the year 2100. The Results also demonstrate that the assessments of adaptation strategies proposed by decision makers are effective but not sustainable for the watershed