A Limited Information Bayesian Forecasting Model of the Cattle SubSector

The first step towards forecasting the price and output of the cattle industry is understanding the dynamics of the livestock production process. This study follows up on the Weimar and Stillman (1990) paper by using data from 1970 to 2005 to estimate the parameters that characterizes the cattle output supply. The model is then used to estimate forecast values for the periods 2006 and 2007. Bayesian limited information likelihood method is used to estimate the parameters when endogeneity exists between these variables. The forecasting ability of the model for a two-step ahead forecast for majority of the variables are relatively good and test statistic of the forecast are reported.Cattle, Bayesian, forecasting, Inventory, Slaughter, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing, Production Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Value of Single Source and Backgrounded Cattle as Measured by Health and Feedlot Profitability

Commingling cattle in the feedlot increases the odds of cattle getting sick. However, backgrounded cattle are less susceptible to diseases which allow the generalizing statements like "backgrounding is just like single source". Using data from over 15,000 cattle fed in 12 Iowa feedlots, we show that although backgrounded cattle do better than preconditioned cattle commingled in the feedlot, they have poorer carcass quality, health, and performance than single source cattle. Backgrounded cattle should be discounted $8.24/head relative to single source, and only received a small premium over multi-source preconditioned cattle though not significantly different.Livestock Production/Industries,

Model uncertainty in characterizing recreation demand

A Bayesian variable selection procedure is used to control for uncertainty in the specification of a recreational demand model. Specifically, we propose a model that draws on the Bayesian paradigm to integrate the variable selection process into the model and reflect the accompanying uncertainty about which is the best specification used for counterfactual predictions. The advantage of this procedure over previous non-Bayesian approaches is that overcomes the problem of pre-testing in specification searches

The effect of financial development on poverty and inequality in African countries

Understanding the factors that are important in determining poverty and inequality is one of the steps in the fight to eradicate poverty in the world. This is particularly so for African countries because when compared to other regions, Africa has the largest concentration of people living below the poverty line. This article examines the effect of financial development as measured by private credit and broad money (M2) on poverty and inequality in African countries. The empirical results indicate that financial development has not had a significant effect on poverty and inequality in African countries. Macroeconomic variables such as low inflation and trade openness were found to be statistically significant, implying that they can help reduce the level of poverty and inequality. Our results confirm the deficiencies in African financial systems and highlight the fact that more effortshttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-9957hb201

Climate change and economic growth in Africa : an econometric analysis

The economic landscape of most African countries depends essentially on the dynamics of climate change. Key sectors driving their economic performance and livelihoods such as agriculture, forestry, energy, tourism, coastal and water resources are highly vulnerable to climate change. This article examines the empirical linkage between economic growth and climate change in Africa. Using annual data for 34 countries from 1961 to 2009, we find a negative impact of climate change on economic growth. Our results show that a 1°C increase in temperature reduces gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 0.67 percentage point. Evidence from sensitivity analysis shows the two largest economies in the Sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria and South Africa) play a significant role in ameliorating the negative economic impact of climate change in the region. In addition to impact on Africa, this article provides estimates of the impact of climate change on GDP growth of these 34 countries, which can be valuable in appraising national adaptation plans.We do not find evidence that average long-run temperature changes affect long-run economic growth as measured by 5 year averages.University of Pretoria Research Development Programme Grant (RDP)http://jae.oxfordjournals.org2017-03-31hb201

Controlling for observed and unobserved site characteristics in RUM models of recreation demand

Random Utility Maximization (RUM) models of recreation demand are typically plagued by limited information on environmental and other attributes characterizing the available sites in the choice set. To the extent that these unobserved site attributes are correlated with the observed characteristics and/or the key travel cost variable, the resulting parameter estimates and subsequent welfare calculations are likely to be biased. In this paper we develop a Bayesian approach to estimating a RUM model that incorporates a full set of alternative specific constants, insulating the key travel cost parameter from the influence of the unobserved site attributes. In contrast to estimation procedures recently outlined in Murdock (2006), the posterior simulator we propose (combining data augmentation and Gibbs sampling techniques) can be used in the more general mixed logit framework in which some parameters of the conditional utility function are random. Following a series of generated data experiments to illustrate the performance of the simulator, we apply the estimation procedures to data from the Iowa Lakes Project. In contrast to an earlier study using the same data (Egan et al. [7]), we find that, with the addition of a full set of alternative specific constants, water quality attributes no longer appear to influence the choice of where to recreate

The transmission of world maize price to South African maize market : a threshold cointegration approach

This paper seeks to provide an explanation for the relationship between domestic maize price in South Africa and world maize prices in order to evaluate co-movement and transmission of world prices to domestic prices in Sub-Sahara African countries. This is done by comparing nested and non-nested models that capture di erent forms of nonlinearity in the price spread. Adopting a Bayesian approach that allows for comparison of models using Bayes Factor, we found that the relationship between South African price and world price for maize indicates the presence of nonlinearity in price transmission with three regimes that is triggered by the price spread in previous period.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1574-08622015-07-31hb201

Shocks in food availability and intrahousehold resources allocation : evidence on children nutrition outcomes in Ethiopia

This paper examines the intra-gender nutrition outcome both with and without the presence of household level shock using Living Standards Measurement Study- Integrated Survey (LSMS) panel data in Ethiopia. We used a mixed-effect estimation strategy to analyze how parents’ gender preference affects resource allocation between boys and girls, and nutrition outcomes. We used a gender dummy and found that child gender dummy interaction with household level shock index variables does not have a significant effect on child nutrition. The results indicate that nutrition equality could be due to (1) the girls’ biological bodily development that causes differences in trouble tolerance such that the girls’ nutrition remains the same as that of boys and (2) the boys’ physical exercises which cause weight loss such that it brings their nutrition down making it equal to that of the girls’. The results suggest the need for energy food supplementation for boys and a need for equal care for both girls and boys.The authors are grateful for the Ph.D. fellowship fund by NORHED Project on Capacity Building for Climate Smart Natural Resource Management and Policy (CLISNARP). Authors are also thankful for the World Bank for the publicly available Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) dataset in Ethiopia.https://link.springer.com/journal/40100am2020Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Developmen

Controlling for observed and unobserved site characteristics in RUM models of recreation demand

Recreation demand models are typically plagued by limited information on site attributes. If these unobserved site attributes are correlated with the observed characteristics and/or the travel cost variable, the resulting parameter estimates are likely to be biased. We develop a Bayesian approach to estimating a model that incorporates a full set of alternative-speci c constants, insulating the key travel cost parameter from the in uence of unobservables. The proposed posterior simulator can be used in the mixed logit framework in which some parameters of the conditional utility function are random. We apply the estimation procedures to data from the Iowa Lakes Project.Hatch Act and State of Iowa, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Science to Achieve Results (STAR) program.Grant R830818.http://ajae.oxfordjournals.org/hb201

Health-related quality of life and its contributory factors in allergic rhinitis patients in Nigeria

OBJECTIVES : To determine the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in allergic rhinitis patients as well as identify contributory factors to patient's well-being. METHODS : Cross-sectional study by multistage sampling. Four-month study duration (October 2013 to January 2014). The setting of the study was Kwara State, Nigeria, which has 16 local government areas with 3 senatorial districts, total land mass of 36,825km(2) with a population of 2,591,555. 132 consenting adults; 66 of them have allergic rhinitis (AR) using Score for Allergic Rhinitis (SFAR) instrument and 66 were age- and gender-matched controls (χ(2)=0, d.f.=1, P=1 and χ(2)=1.24, d.f.=2, P=0.54, respectively). Information on HRQoL was obtained using the 14-parameter mini-rhinoconjunctivitis quality of life questionnaire (mini-RQLQ). Socio-demographic variables possibly contributory to patient's well-being were obtained. Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney U tests were used to compare means. RESULTS : The overall Total Symptom Score (TSS) was 3.37±0.9, while male and female allergic patients and control TSS were 3.61±1.0; 3.16±0.8, and 0.98±0.2; 0.95±0.2, respectively. Effects of gender, marital status, senatorial districts, residential area and duration of symptoms had significant impact on the quality of life. The highest correlation with TSS and components of mini-RQOL questionnaire existed between nasal problems and other symptoms (r=0.866; 0.868). CONCLUSION : AR had appreciable impact on HRQoL of the participants. Gender, number of dependents, marital status, senatorial districts, residential area and duration of symptoms were major identifiable contributory factors to the patient's well-being.http://www.elsevier.com/locate/anl2017-04-30hb2016Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Developmen