Stock Market Response to Economic Growth and Interest Rate Volatility: Evidence from Nigeria

This study examined the relationship between macroeconomic variable volatility and stock market return within the context of Blanchard (1981) extension of the Hicks (1937) IS-LM hypothesis, using EGARCH estimation techniques to analysis monthly data sourced on the Nigerian economy from January 1985 to December 2013. Our result shows that stock prices responds significantly to innovations in the interest rate and the RGDP, we therefore recommends that policy makers on the one hand should consider volatility in both  the interest rate and the RGDP when making policies aimed at enhancing stock market development. On the other hand, market practitioners are expected to make provisions for volatility in interest rate and the RGDP when making portfolio decisions. Keywords: Interest rate, Real Gross Domestic Product, All Share Price, Volatility, EGARCH JEL Classifications: C22, G01, G14, G1

Effects of Global Decline in Oil Price on the Financial Performance of selected Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria.

The global decline in oil price have had a significant effect on the Nigerian economy especially the banking sector and this has led to some banks; revenue shortfalls, increase in their non-performing loans, layoff of staff, decrease in the bank deposit base, deterioration of the bank's asset quality, reduction in the banks ticket transactions e.tc. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to examine the effects of the global decline in oil price on the Nigerian banking sector. Descriptive statistics and Simple linear regression was used as a tool for data analysis which was run with a pool ordinary least square (OLS) and the findings revealed that there exists a positive and significant relationship between oil prices and the financial performance (three key performance index were used to measure performance such as; profit after tax, current ratio, and net interest margin) of the banks especially in the period characterized by the decline in oil price. This paper, therefore, recommends that the government should take proactive steps to revamp the Agricultural sector by empowering our local farmers while commercial farming should be encouraged. Banks should endeavor to imbibe diversification of their investments and engage in financial innovation in other to improve their performance so as to enable them to be competitive globally. Keywords: Oil price, Syndicated loans, Oil and gas sector, Profitability, Deposit money banks JEL Classifications: Q40, Q43, G21 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.751

Economic growth, exchange rate and remittance nexus : evidence from Africa

This paper examined the nexus between economic growth and exchange rate, remittances, trade, and agricultural output based on data sourced from 1980 to 2018 for 10 selected African economies. We employed both the Dumitrescu and Hurlin time-domain Granger causality test and the Croux and Reusens frequency domain Granger causality test. Results from the timedomain test suggests that causality only exists between economic growth and both exchange rate and trade, with no significant relationship between economic growth and both remittances and agricultural output. When we employed frequency domain model in our analysis, the results suggested that there is a bi-directional temporary and permanent causality between economic growth and exchange rate, trade, agriculture, and remittances. Our results suggest the validity of both the J-Curve and Marshall–Lerner hypotheses in the studied economies. Our study offers some relevant policy implications.DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT : Data for the study were sourced from World Development Indicators (various issues) https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators.The Management of Bowen University, Iwo Nigeria for funding the article processing fee.https://www.mdpi.com/journal/jrfmEconomic

Monetary Policy Dynamics and the Stock Market Movements: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

The contributions of the stock market to economic growth can never be over-emphasized. In this paper, we used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bound testing estimation techniques to examine the existence of any relationship between monetary policy instruments and the stock market in Nigeria based on the data sourced from 1985 to 2013. From the results obtained, it can be deduced that monetary policy instruments significantly exerts on stock market behaviour in Nigeria. We recommends that policy makers should put in place policies that aimed at adjusting the interest rate upward, reduce or at best keep at constant the money supply growth rate, increase the net credit to the private sector and manipulate the exchange rate regime so as to boost stock market

Stock Market Response to Economic Growth and Interest Rate Volatility: Evidence from Nigeria

This study examined the relationship between macroeconomic variable volatility and stock market return within the context of Blanchard (1981) extension of the Hicks (1937) IS-LM hypothesis, using exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedascity estimation techniques to analysis monthly data sourced on the Nigerian economy from January 1985 to December 2013. Our result shows that stock prices responds significantly to innovations in the interest rate and the real gross domestic product (RGDP), we therefore recommends that policy makers on the one hand should consider volatility in both the interest rate and the RGDP when making policies aimed at enhancing stock market development. On the other hand, market practitioners are expected to make provisions for volatility in interest rate and the RGDP when making portfolio decisions

Testing mean-reversion in agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from wavelet analysis

This study examines the validity of the random walk hypothesis for some selected soft agricultural commodity prices within the context of heterogeneous market hypothesis and mean reversion hypothesis. The study employs a battery of traditional unit root tests, GARCH-based models and a novel frequency-based wavelet analysis to analyze daily data sourced from 6th of Jan 1986 to 29th Dec 2018. Contrary to other existing studies that employed only traditional time domain unit root tests, our results reveal that soft commodity prices are mean reverting, suggesting the existence of potential excess returns for investors. Overall, our results show that the selected soft commodity series are inefficient when we factored in heteroscedascity and frequency domain into our model. Our study is an improvement on the existing studies as we analyze our data using both time and frequency domain estimates. Besides, unlike other studies that did not offer structural breaks, the current study provides structural break dates with major events in the global socioeconomic space, which are key to identifying the date of bubbles and potential signs of commodity price bubbles. Our findings have some critical implications for investors, policy maker

EXAMINING THE EFFECTS OF OIL PRICE LONG MEMORY AND EXCHANGE RATE LONG MEMORY ON STOCK MARKET BEHAVIOR IN NIGERIA

The study examined the effect oil price long memory and exchange rate long memory on Nigeria's stock. We have used ARMA estimating techniques to assess whether one or both variables exert impact on the stock market in Nigeria. Our result shows that long memory stock price is driven by a long memory of the exchange rate and long stock of the oil price. We therefore recommend that policymakers pursue policies aimed at stabilizing, on the one hand, the exchange rate regime and ensuring the economy has a position in net oil exportations. We also recommend the development of portfolio strategies by market practitioners so that long-term memory in exchange rates as well as in oil pricing are considered when making investment decision

Economic Growth, Exchange Rate and Remittance Nexus: Evidence from Africa

This paper examined the nexus between economic growth and exchange rate, remittances, trade, and agricultural output based on data sourced from 1980 to 2018 for 10 selected African economies. We employed both the Dumitrescu and Hurlin time-domain Granger causality test and the Croux and Reusens frequency domain Granger causality test. Results from the time-domain test suggests that causality only exists between economic growth and both exchange rate and trade, with no significant relationship between economic growth and both remittances and agricultural output. When we employed frequency domain model in our analysis, the results suggested that there is a bi-directional temporary and permanent causality between economic growth and exchange rate, trade, agriculture, and remittances. Our results suggest the validity of both the J-Curve and Marshall–Lerner hypotheses in the studied economies. Our study offers some relevant policy implications