A Combining Forecasting Modeling and Its Application

Part 5: Modelling and SimulationInternational audienceThe supply chain coordination has abstracted more and more attention from industries and academics. This paper studies a Bayesian combination forecasting model to integrate multiple forecasting resources and coordinate forecasting process among partners in retail supply chain. The simulation results based on the retail sales data show the effectiveness of this Bayesian combination forecasting model to coordinate the collaborative forecasting process. This Bayesian combination forecasting model can improve demand forecasting accuracy of supply chain

An Isocurvature Mechanism for Structure Formation

We examine a novel mechanism for structure formation involving initial number density fluctuations between relativistic species, one of which then undergoes a temporary downward variation in its equation of state and generates superhorizon-scale density fluctuations. Isocurvature decaying dark matter models (iDDM) provide concrete examples. This mechanism solves the phenomenological problems of traditional isocurvature models, allowing iDDM models to fit the current CMB and large-scale structure data, while still providing novel behavior. We characterize the decaying dark matter and its decay products as a single component of ``generalized dark matter''. This simplifies calculations in decaying dark matter models and others that utilize this mechanism for structure formation.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, submitted to PRD (rapid communications

Cosmological Consequences of String-forming Open Inflation Models

We present a study of open inflation cosmological scenarios in which cosmic strings form betwen the two inflationary epochs. It is shown that in these models strings are stretched outside the horizon due to the inflationary expansion but must necessarily re-enter the horizon before the epoch of equal matter and radiation densities. We determine the power spectrum of cold dark matter perturbations in these hybrid models, finding good agreement with observations for values of $\Gamma=\Omega_0h\sim0.3$ and comparable contributions from the active and passive sources to the CMB. Finally, we briefly discuss other cosmological consequences of these models.Comment: 11 LaTeX pages with 3 eps figure

Observational constraints on braneworld chaotic inflation

We examine observational constraints on chaotic inflation models in the Randall-Sundrum Type II braneworld. If inflation takes place in the high-energy regime, the perturbations produced by the quadratic potential are further from scale-invariance than in the standard cosmology, in the quartic case more or less unchanged, while for potentials of greater exponent the trend is reversed. We test these predictions against a data compilation including the WMAP measurements of microwave anisotropies and the 2dF galaxy power spectrum. While in the standard cosmology the quartic potential is at the border of what the data allow and all higher powers excluded, we find that in the high-energy regime of braneworld inflation even the quadratic case is under strong observational pressure. We also investigate the intermediate regime where the brane tension is comparable to the inflationary energy scale, where the deviations from scale-invariance prove to be greater.Comment: 5 pages RevTeX4 file with three figures incorporated. Minor changes to match version accepted by Physical Review

Chaotic Inflationary Universe on Brane

The chaotic inflationary model of the early universe, proposed by Linde is explored in the brane world considering matter described by a minimally coupled self interacting scalar field. We obtain cosmological solutions which admit evolution of a universe either from a singularity or without a singularity. It is found that a very weakly coupled self-interacting scalar field is necessary for a quartic type potential in the brane world model compared to that necessary in general relativity. In the brane world sufficient inflation may be obtained even with an initial scalar field having value less than the Planck scale. It is found that if the universe is kinetic energy dominated to begin with, it transits to an inflationary stage subsequently.Comment: 13 pages, no fig., accepted in Physical Review

Constraints on diffuse neutrino background from primordial black holes

We calculated the energy spectra and the fluxes of electron neutrino emitted in the process of evaporation of primordial black holes (PBHs) in the early universe. It was assumed that PBHs are formed by a blue power-law spectrum of primordial density fluctuations. We obtained the bounds on the spectral index of density fluctuations assuming validity of the standard picture of gravitational collapse and using the available data of several experiments with atmospheric and solar neutrinos. The comparison of our results with the previous constraints (which had been obtained using diffuse photon background data) shows that such bounds are quite sensitive to an assumed form of the initial PBH mass function.Comment: 18 pages,(with 7 figures

The Sagnac Effect in curved space-times from an analogy with the Aharonov-Bohm Effect

In the context of the natural splitting, the standard relative dynamics can be expressed in terms of gravito-electromagnetic fields, which allow to formally introduce a gravito-magnetic Aharonov-Bohm effect. We showed elsewhere that this formal analogy can be used to derive the Sagnac effect in flat space-time as a gravito-magnetic Aharonov-Bohm effect. Here, we generalize those results to study the General Relativistic corrections to the Sagnac effect in some stationary and axially symmetric geometries, such as the space-time around a weakly gravitating and rotating source, Kerr space-time, G\"{odel} universe and Schwarzschild space-time.Comment: 14 pages, 1 EPS figure, LaTeX, accepted for publication in General Relativity and Gravitatio

Bounds from Primordial Black Holes with a Near Critical Collapse Initial Mass Function

Recent numerical evidence suggests that a mass spectrum of primordial black holes (PBHs) is produced as a consequence of near critical gravitational collapse. Assuming that these holes formed from the initial density perturbations seeded by inflation, we calculate model independent upper bounds on the mass variance at the reheating temperature by requiring the mass density not exceed the critical density and the photon emission not exceed current diffuse gamma-ray measurements. We then translate these results into bounds on the spectral index n by utilizing the COBE data to normalize the mass variance at large scales, assuming a constant power law, then scaling this result to the reheating temperature. We find that our bounds on n differ substantially (\delta n > 0.05) from those calculated using initial mass functions derived under the assumption that the black hole mass is proportional to the horizon mass at the collapse epoch. We also find a change in the shape of the diffuse gamma-ray spectrum which results from the Hawking radiation. Finally, we study the impact of a nonzero cosmological constant and find that the bounds on n are strengthened considerably if the universe is indeed vacuum-energy dominated today.Comment: 24 pages, REVTeX, 5 figures; minor typos fixed, two refs added, version to be published in PR

Limits on the gravity wave contribution to microwave anisotropies

We present limits on the fraction of large angle microwave anisotropies which could come from tensor perturbations. We use the COBE results as well as smaller scale CMB observations, measurements of galaxy correlations, abundances of galaxy clusters, and Lyman alpha absorption cloud statistics. Our aim is to provide conservative limits on the tensor-to-scalar ratio for standard inflationary models. For power-law inflation, for example, we find T/S<0.52 at 95% confidence, with a similar constraint for phi^p potentials. However, for models with tensor amplitude unrelated to the scalar spectral index it is still currently possible to have T/S>1.Comment: 23 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. D. Calculations extended to blue spectral index, Fig. 6 added, discussion of results expande

Inflation, cold dark matter, and the central density problem

A problem with high central densities in dark halos has arisen in the context of LCDM cosmologies with scale-invariant initial power spectra. Although n=1 is often justified by appealing to the inflation scenario, inflationary models with mild deviations from scale-invariance are not uncommon and models with significant running of the spectral index are plausible. Even mild deviations from scale-invariance can be important because halo collapse times and densities depend on the relative amount of small-scale power. We choose several popular models of inflation and work out the ramifications for galaxy central densities. For each model, we calculate its COBE-normalized power spectrum and deduce the implied halo densities using a semi-analytic method calibrated against N-body simulations. We compare our predictions to a sample of dark matter-dominated galaxies using a non-parametric measure of the density. While standard n=1, LCDM halos are overdense by a factor of 6, several of our example inflation+CDM models predict halo densities well within the range preferred by observations. We also show how the presence of massive (0.5 eV) neutrinos may help to alleviate the central density problem even with n=1. We conclude that galaxy central densities may not be as problematic for the CDM paradigm as is sometimes assumed: rather than telling us something about the nature of the dark matter, galaxy rotation curves may be telling us something about inflation and/or neutrinos. An important test of this idea will be an eventual consensus on the value of sigma_8, the rms overdensity on the scale 8 h^-1 Mpc. Our successful models have values of sigma_8 approximately 0.75, which is within the range of recent determinations. Finally, models with n>1 (or sigma_8 > 1) are highly disfavored.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures. Minor changes made to reflect referee's Comments, error in Eq. (18) corrected, references updated and corrected, conclusions unchanged. Version accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. D, scheduled for 15 August 200