836 research outputs found

    Using network theory to identify the causes of disease outbreaks of unknown origin.

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    The identification of undiagnosed disease outbreaks is critical for mobilizing efforts to prevent widespread transmission of novel virulent pathogens. Recent developments in online surveillance systems allow for the rapid communication of the earliest reports of emerging infectious diseases and tracking of their spread. The efficacy of these programs, however, is inhibited by the anecdotal nature of informal reporting and uncertainty of pathogen identity in the early stages of emergence. We developed theory to connect disease outbreaks of known aetiology in a network using an array of properties including symptoms, seasonality and case-fatality ratio. We tested the method with 125 reports of outbreaks of 10 known infectious diseases causing encephalitis in South Asia, and showed that different diseases frequently form distinct clusters within the networks. The approach correctly identified unknown disease outbreaks with an average sensitivity of 76 per cent and specificity of 88 per cent. Outbreaks of some diseases, such as Nipah virus encephalitis, were well identified (sensitivity = 100%, positive predictive values = 80%), whereas others (e.g. Chandipura encephalitis) were more difficult to distinguish. These results suggest that unknown outbreaks in resource-poor settings could be evaluated in real time, potentially leading to more rapid responses and reducing the risk of an outbreak becoming a pandemic

    The Impact of the Unstructured Contacts Component in Influenza Pandemic Modeling

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    Individual based models have become a valuable tool for modeling the spatiotemporal dynamics of epidemics, e.g. influenza pandemic, and for evaluating the effectiveness of intervention strategies. While specific contacts among individuals into diverse environments (family, school/workplace) can be modeled in a standard way by employing available socio-demographic data, all the other (unstructured) contacts can be dealt with by adopting very different approaches. This can be achieved for instance by employing distance-based models or by choosing unstructured contacts in the local communities or by employing commuting data.Here we show how diverse choices can lead to different model outputs and thus to a different evaluation of the effectiveness of the containment/mitigation strategies. Sensitivity analysis has been conducted for different values of the first generation index G(0), which is the average number of secondary infections generated by the first infectious individual in a completely susceptible population and by varying the seeding municipality. Among the different considered models, attack rate ranges from 19.1% to 25.7% for G(0) = 1.1, from 47.8% to 50.7% for G(0) = 1.4 and from 62.4% to 67.8% for G(0) = 1.7. Differences of about 15 to 20 days in the peak day have been observed. As regards spatial diffusion, a difference of about 100 days to cover 200 km for different values of G(0) has been observed.To reduce uncertainty in the models it is thus important to employ data, which start being available, on contacts on neglected but important activities (leisure time, sport mall, restaurants, etc.) and time-use data for improving the characterization of the unstructured contacts. Moreover, all the possible effects of different assumptions should be considered for taking public health decisions: not only sensitivity analysis to various model parameters should be performed, but intervention options should be based on the analysis and comparison of different modeling choices

    Adherence to yoga and exercise interventions in a 6-month clinical trial

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To determine factors that predict adherence to a mind-body intervention in a randomized trial.</p> <p>Design</p> <p>We analyzed adherence data from a 3-arm trial involving 135 generally healthy seniors 65–85 years of age randomized to a 6-month intervention consisting of: an Iyengar yoga class with home practice, an exercise class with home practice, or a wait-list control group. Outcome measures included cognitive function, mood, fatigue, anxiety, health-related quality of life, and physical measures. Adherence to the intervention was obtained by class attendance and biweekly home practice logs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The drop-out rate was 13%. Among the completers of the two active interventions, average yoga class attendance was 77% and home practice occurred 64% of all days. Average exercise class attendance was 69% and home exercise occurred 54% of all days. There were no clear effects of adherence on the significant study outcomes (quality of life and physical measures). Class attendance was significantly correlated with baseline measures of depression, fatigue, and physical components of health-related quality of life. Significant differences in baseline measures were also found between study completers and drop-outs in the active interventions. Adherence was not related to age, gender, or education level.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Healthy seniors have good attendance at classes with a physically active intervention. Home practice takes place over half of the time. Decreased adherence to a potentially beneficial intervention has the potential to decrease the effect of the intervention in a clinical trial because subjects who might sustain the greatest benefit will receive a lower dose of the intervention and subjects with higher adherence rates may be functioning closer to maximum ability before the intervention. Strategies to maximize adherence among subjects at greater risk for low adherence will be important for future trials, especially complementary treatments requiring greater effort than simple pill-taking.</p

    Spinal stenosis subsequent to juvenile lumbar osteochondrosis

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    This paper describes eight patients with spinal stenosis associated with marked osteochondrous changes in the vertebral bodies due to juvenile lumbar osteochondrosis (Scheuermann's disease). In no case was the midsagittal or interpedicular diameter of the spinal canal indicative of bony stenosis. On the other hand, in the myelograms the sagittal diameter of the dural sac was in all cases significantly narrowed, a diagnostic sign of central spinal stenosis. Therefore, myelography should always be contemplated when osteochondrous changes are present and spinal stenosis is suspected clinically regardless of whether the spinal canal diameters are normal in plain films.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/46799/1/256_2004_Article_BF00204096.pd

    Cecal obstruction due to primary intestinal tuberculosis: a case series

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Primary intestinal tuberculosis is a rare variant of tuberculosis. The preferred treatment is usually pharmaceutical, but surgery may be required for complicated cases.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We report two cases of primary intestinal tuberculosis where the initial diagnosis was wrong, with colonic cancer suggested in the first case and a Crohn's disease complication in the second. Both of our patients were Caucasians of Greek nationality. In the first case (a 60-year-old man), a right hemicolectomy was performed. In the second case (a 26-year-old man), excision was impossible due to the local conditions and peritoneal implantations. Histopathology revealed an inflammatory mass of tuberculous origin in the first case. In the second, cell culture and polymerase chain reaction tests revealed <it>Mycobacterium tuberculosis</it>. Both patients were given anti-tuberculosis therapy and their post-operative follow-up was uneventful.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Gastrointestinal tuberculosis still appears sporadically and should be considered in the differential diagnosis along with other conditions of the bowel. The use of immunosuppressants and new pharmaceutical agents can change the prevalence of tuberculosis.</p
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