The Terms of Trade, Repudiation and Default on Sovereign Debt

A poor country with volatile export prices borrows in international markets. When debt is denominated in foreign currency, there is a temptation to repudiate when export prices are low. Excusable partial defaults reduce this temptation, and thus help to support lending.debt, default, terms of trade

The terms of trade, repudiation and default on sovereign debt

A poor country with volatile export prices borrows in international markets. When debt is denominated in foreign currency, there is a temptation to repudiate when export prices are low. Excusable partial defaults reduce this temptation, and help to support lending. The cases of debt denominated in domestic currency, and indexed to (a) consumer or (b) export prices, and (c) volatile output are also examined.

Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation Persistence

Some empirical research has suggested that inflation is more persistent under floating exchange rates. Theoretically, we should expect a higher variance of inflation persistence across countries under floating rates, but not necessarily a higher mean. It is shown that estimates of inflation persistence are biased upwards by underfitting mean shifts in the sample. After correction for mean shifts, there is evidence of greater inflation persistence in the post-Bretton Woods period, but no evidence of variation across exchange rate regimes. Monetary growth has been much less accommodative of inflation since 1979, with no difference between EMS and non-EMS countries. Copyright 2001, International Monetary Fund

THE CURRENCY DENOMINATION OF SOVEREIGN DEBT

This paper considers the currency composition of sovereign debt in the context of risk-sharing through excusable defaults. It is shown that monetary credibility is not a sufficient condition for borrowing in domestic currency. With real exchange rate risk, debt denominated in a borrowing country’s currency can be too state-contingent to support international lending on purely reputational considerations, even when debt denominated in the lending country’s currency is viable. The model can explain the geographical pattern of bond issuance, the phenomenon of “original sin”, and the concentration of defaults on foreign-currency debt.

FUNDAMENTALS AND EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY

Fundamentals may determine the range of real exchange rate fluctuation, through signals of misalignment, even if they are not a major influence on the level within that range. This can explain the puzzle that more open economies experience lower real exchange rate volatility. Adjustment of domestic prices to nominal exchange rate movements can account for only a small proportion of this effect. Sustainability analysis focuses on the ratio of the current account to GDP (rather than to total trade flows) as a misalignment signal, which implies narrower bounds for real exchange rates in more open economies.

Inflation Persistence and Exchange Rate Regimes: Evidence from Developing Countries

Using data for 102 developing countries, it is shown that inflation persistence is particularly high in countries with severe inflationary problems, and particularly low in countries on hard pegs. Inflation persistence is similar under floating and soft pegs.Inflation, persistence, exchange rates

Exchange Rate Regimes and Monetary Discipline - Only Hard Pegs Make a Difference

Previous research has suggested that pegged exchange rates are associated with lower inflation than floating rates. In which direction does the causality run? Using data from a large sample of developing countries from 1984 to 2000, we confirm that "hard" pegs (currency boards or a shared currency) reduce inflation and money growth. There is no evidence that "soft" pegs confer any monetary discipline. The choice between soft pegs and floats is determined by inflation: when inflation is low, pegs tend to be chosen and sustained, and when inflation is high, either floats are chosen or there are frequent regime switches.

Inflation persistence and exchange rate regimes: evidence from developing countries

Using data for 102 developing countries, it is shown that inflation persistence is particularly low in countries on hard pegs, and particularly high in countries with severe inflationary problems. Inflation persistence is similar under floating and soft pegs. The finding of low inflation persistence in hard pegs is a new result.

Biogeographical Conditions, the Transition to Agriculture and Long-Run Growth

We use new data on the timing of the transition to agriculture, developed by Putterman and Trainor (2006), to test the theory of Diamond (1997) and Olsson and Hibbs (2005) that an earlier transition is reflected in higher incomes today. Our results confirm the theory, even after controlling for institutional quality and other geographical factors. The date of transition is correlated with prehistoric biogeography (the availability of wild grasses and large domesticable animal species). The factors conducive to high per capita incomes today are good institutions, an early transition to agriculture, access to the sea and a low incidence of fatal malaria. Geographical influences have been at work in all of these proximate determinants of per capita income.agriculture, geography, growth, institutions

The Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes in Developing Countries - Does the Classifications Scheme Matter?

Official and four alternative regime classification schemes based on observed exchange rate behaviour are used to examine the relationship with inflation and growth in developing countries. For an identical sample of observations from 73 countries for 1984-2001, only the scheme based on parallel rates suggests a significant effect (negative) of floating on growth. Floats that claim to be pegs, or have high exchange rate volatility, are the ones with lower growth. Hard pegs offer inflation benefits. Floating is not consistently associated with higher inflation than soft pegs, and any apparent association is a possible by-product of the design of the classification algorithms.exchange rate regimes, growth, inflation