Prediction Possibility in the Fractal Overlap Model of Earthquakes

The two-fractal overlap model of earthquake shows that the contact area distribution of two fractal surfaces follows power law decay in many cases and this agrees with the Guttenberg-Richter power law. Here, we attempt to predict the large events (earthquakes) in this model through the overlap time-series analysis. Taking only the Cantor sets, the overlap sizes (contact areas) are noted when one Cantor set moves over the other with uniform velocity. This gives a time series containing different overlap sizes. Our numerical study here shows that the cumulative overlap size grows almost linearly with time and when the overlapsizes are added up to a pre-assigned large event (earthquake) and then reset to `zero' level, the corresponding cumulative overlap sizes grows upto some discrete (quantised) levels. This observation should help to predict the possibility of `large events' in this (overlap) time series.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures. To be published as proc. NATO conf. CMDS-10, Soresh, Israel, July 2003. Eds. D. J. Bergman & E. Inan, KLUWER PUB

Genetic and biogeochemical investigation of sedimentary nitrogen cycling communities responding to tidal and seasonal dynamics in Cape Fear River Estuary

Tidal and seasonal fluctuations in the oligohaline reaches of estuaries may alter geochemical features that influence structure and function of microbial communities involved in sedimentary nitrogen (N) cycling. In order to evaluate sediment community responses to short-term (tidal) and long-term (seasonal) changes in different tidal regimes, nitrogen cycling rates and genes were quantified in three sites that span a range of tidal influence in the upper portion of the Cape Fear River Estuary. Environmental parameters were monitored during low and high tides in winter and spring. N-15 tracer incubation experiments were conducted to measure nitrification, denitrification, anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox), and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonia (DNRA). Abundances of functional genes including bacterial and archaeal ammonia monooxygenase (amoA), nitrite reductases (nirS and nrfA), nitrous oxide reductase (nosZ), and hydrazine oxidoreductase (hzo) were measured using quantitative PCR assays. Denitrification rates were highest among the measured N cycling processes while bacteria carrying nrfA genes were most abundant. A discernable pattern in the short-term variation of N cycling rates and gene abundance was not apparent under the different tidal regimes. Significant seasonal variation in nitrification, denitrification, and anammox rates as well as bacterial amoA, nirS and nosZ gene abundance was observed, largely explained by increases in substrate availability during winter, with sediment ammonium playing a central role. These results suggest that the coupling of nitrification to N removal pathways is primarily driven by organic carbon mineralization and independent of tidal or salinity changes. Finally, changes in denitrification and nitrification activities were strongly reflected by the abundance of the respective functional genes, supporting a linkage between the structure and function of microbial communities. (c) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Monetary valuation of salinity impacts and microbial pollution in the Olifants Water Management Area, South Africa

This paper estimates costs associated with water pollution in the Olifants River Water Management Area (WMA) in South Africa, and, more specifically, the area represented by the Loskop Dam Water User Association. We focus on the impacts of salinisation on commercial irrigated agriculture, and of microbial pollution on the general population of the WMA, many of whom do not have access to municipal water and sanitation services, leaving them vulnerable to microbial pollution inthe water resource. Costs associated with salinity are estimates based on the impacts of increased salinity on the value of marginal product of certain irrigated crops. Costs associated with microbial pollution are estimated based on the direct and indirect costs of human health impacts as a result of microbial pollution in the study area. These monetary value estimates give an indication of the magnitude of the cost of water pollution to society in the WMA. It is concluded that the once-off cost required to provide some pollution prevention infrastructure will be lower than the current annual cost burden of pollution on society in the WMA, and that pollution prevention is therefore cost effective

Bounded Determinization of Timed Automata with Silent Transitions

Deterministic timed automata are strictly less expressive than their non-deterministic counterparts, which are again less expressive than those with silent transitions. As a consequence, timed automata are in general non-determinizable. This is unfortunate since deterministic automata play a major role in model-based testing, observability and implementability. However, by bounding the length of the traces in the automaton, effective determinization becomes possible. We propose a novel procedure for bounded determinization of timed automata. The procedure unfolds the automata to bounded trees, removes all silent transitions and determinizes via disjunction of guards. The proposed algorithms are optimized to the bounded setting and thus are more efficient and can handle a larger class of timed automata than the general algorithms. The approach is implemented in a prototype tool and evaluated on several examples. To our best knowledge, this is the first implementation of this type of procedure for timed automata.Comment: 25 page

Genetics and the Sociology of Identity.

notes: PMCID: PMC4025619types: JOURNAL ARTICLEN/AThe editorial work for this Special Issue was funded by the ESRC grants to CESAGEN (RES-145- 28-0003), EGENIS (RES-145-28-0001), the Genomics Forum (RES-145-28-0005), and INNOGEN (RES-145-28-0002)

The Relationship Between Lifelong Exercise Volume and Coronary Atherosclerosis in Athletes.

Background -Higher levels of physical activity are associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular events. Nevertheless, there is debate on the dose-response relationship of exercise and CVD outcomes and whether high volumes of exercise may accelerate coronary atherosclerosis. We aimed to determine the relationship between lifelong exercise volumes and coronary atherosclerosis. Methods -Middle aged men engaged in competitive or recreational leisure sports underwent a non-contrast and contrast-enhanced computed tomography scan to assess coronary artery calcification (CAC) and plaque characteristics. Participants reported lifelong exercise history patterns. Exercise volumes were multiplied by Metabolic Equivalent of Task (MET) scores to calculate MET-min/week. Participants were categorized as 2000 MET-min/week. Results -284 men (55±7 years) were included. CAC was present in 150/284 (53%) participants with a median CAC score of 35.8 [9.3-145.8). Athletes with a lifelong exercise volume >2000 MET-min/week (n=75) had a significantly higher CAC score (9.4 [0-60.9] versus 0 [0-43.5], p=.02) and prevalence of CAC (68%,ORadjusted=3.2 (95%CI: 1.6-6.6)) and plaque (77%, ORadjusted=3.3 (95%CI: 1.6-7.1)) compared to 0, there was no difference in CAC score (p=.20), area (p=.21), density (p=.25) and regions of interest (p=.20) across exercise volume groups. Among participants with plaque, the most active group (>2000 MET-min/week) had a lower prevalence of mixed plaques (48% versus 69%, ORadjusted=0.35 (95%CI: 0.15-0.85) and more often had only calcified plaques (38% versus 16%, ORadjusted=3.57 (95%CI: 1.28-9.97)) compared to the least active group (2000 MET-min/week group had a higher prevalence of CAC and atherosclerotic plaques. The most active group did however have a more benign composition of plaques, with fewer mixed plaques and more often only calcified plaques. These observations may explain the increased longevity typical of endurance athletes despite the presence of more coronary atherosclerotic plaque in the most active participants

Pentoxifylline Plus Prednisolone versus Pentoxifylline Only for Severe Alcoholic Hepatitis: A Randomized Controlled Clinical Trial

Background: Prednisolone and pentoxifylline (PTX) have been shown to be individually useful in severe alcoholic hepatitis with Maddrey discriminant function (MDF) score .32. Previous report suggests that PTX is probably superior to prednisolone alone. However the efficacy of PTX and prednisolone combination over PTX alone in the management of acute alcoholic hepatitis (MDF score ≥32) is yet unrevealed.Aim: The present study was initiated to find out the efficacy of combined pentoxifylline and prednisolone versus PTX alone in acute alcoholic  hepatitis in respect of short and intermediate term outcomes.Subjects and Methods: A total of 124 patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis (MDF score ≥32) initially were evaluated. 62 patients who fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria were randomized and divided into 2 groups. Group 1 received PTX only, whereas Group 2 received PTX plus Prednisolone. The total duration of follow-up was 12 months. Studentfs t-test, Chi-square test, the Kaplan-Meier methods were used forstatistical analysis. Results: A total of 60 patients, 30 in each group were available for finalanalysis. In Group-1, 6 patients expired at the end of 1 year (5 within 3 months and another after 3 months). In Group 2, 10 patients expired at the end of 1 year (9 within 3 months and another after 3 months). Though survival probability is higher among Group 1 patients but the difference is not statistically significant.Conclusion: The combination of PTX plus Prednisolone yields no additional benefit in terms of mortality and morbidity from that of PTX monotherapy.Keywords: Alcoholic hepatitis, Maddrey discriminant function score,  Pentoxifylline, Prednisolon

The environmental fate of organic pollutants through the global microbial metabolism

The production of new chemicals for industrial or therapeutic applications exceeds our ability to generate experimental data on their biological fate once they are released into the environment. Typically, mixtures of organic pollutants are freed into a variety of sites inhabited by diverse microorganisms, which structure complex multispecies metabolic networks. A machine learning approach has been instrumental to expose a correlation between the frequency of 149 atomic triads (chemotopes) common in organo-chemical compounds and the global capacity of microorganisms to metabolise them. Depending on the type of environmental fate defined, the system can correctly predict the biodegradative outcome for 73–87% of compounds. This system is available to the community as a web server (http://www.pdg.cnb.uam.es/BDPSERVER). The application of this predictive tool to chemical species released into the environment provides an early instrument for tentatively classifying the compounds as biodegradable or recalcitrant. Automated surveys of lists of industrial chemicals currently employed in large quantities revealed that herbicides are the group of functional molecules more difficult to recycle into the biosphere through the inclusive microbial metabolism

Comparative physiology of Australian quolls (Dasyurus; Marsupialia)

Quolls (Dasyurus) are medium-sized carnivorous dasyurid marsupials. Tiger (3,840 g) and eastern quolls (780 g) are mesic zone species, northern quolls (516 g) are tropical zone, and chuditch (1,385 g) were once widespread through the Australian arid zone. We found that standard physiological variables of these quolls are consistent with allometric expectations for marsupials. Nevertheless, inter-specific patterns amongst the quolls are consistent with their different environments. The lower T ^sub b^ of northern quolls (34°C) may provide scope for adaptive hyperthermia in the tropics, and they use torpor for energy/water conservation, whereas the larger mesic species (eastern and tiger quolls) do not appear to. Thermolability varied from little in eastern (0.035°C °C^sup -1^) and tiger quolls (0.051°C ºC^sup -1^) to substantial in northern quolls (0.100°C ºC^sup -1^) and chuditch (0.146°C ºC^sup -1^), reflecting body mass and environment. Basal metabolic rate was higher for eastern quolls (0.662 ± 0.033 ml O^sub 2^ g^sup -1^ h^sup -1^), presumably reflecting their naturally cool environment. Respiratory ventilation closely matched metabolic demand, except at high ambient temperatures where quolls hyperventilated to facilitate evaporative heat loss; tiger and eastern quolls also salivated. A higher evaporative water loss for eastern quolls (1.43 ± 0.212 mg H^sub 2^O g^sup -1^ h^sup -1^) presumably reflects their more mesic distribution. The point of relative water economy was low for tiger (-1.3°C), eastern (-12.5°C) and northern (+3.3) quolls, and highest for the chuditch (+22.6°C). We suggest that these differences in water economy reflect lower expired air temperatures and hence lower respiratory evaporative water loss for the arid-zone chuditch relative to tropical and mesic quolls

Assessing housing approaches for Iraq: Learning from the world experience

Iraq is facing a housing shortage of around 1.0 million housing units, which is equivalent to around 25% of its current housing stock. At the same time, it suffers from having a low housing production. As a first Step towards managing this challenge, the country needs to identify a proper approach to drive developments. For this purpose, a new Iraqi National Housing Policy was issued in 2010. It proposed adopting private sector-led pro- duction to handle the housing problems. However, within a context dominated by instability, a negative in- vestment environment, and weak private sector, the Policy's approach has not been applicable. The private sector has not been able to take this role. Accordingly, a comprehensive investigation is required to assess the possible housing approaches and to define a prospective way forward for the country, which has not been found in previous literature. This paper aims to address this challenge by exploring and investigating what has been done by other countries to successfully manage problems similar to those currently faced by Iraq. The research methodology underpinning this paper includes a mathematical extrapolation of data stemming from UN-Habitat housing statistics as well as a wide-ranging literature review. The results demonstrate that supporting the formal private sector-led housing production is a promising principal approach. It has enabled countries to have sus- tainable housing development. However, due to Iraq's current situation and the inability of its formal sector to satisfy large needs, an interim approach is needed. This should support the public sector intervention and, mainly, adopt informal housing related strategies, such as self-help housing. This is to be done alongside the efforts to support the formal private sector to take its principal role. This research's approach of using a mathematical extrapolation to guide investigating and examining previous literature is highlighted by the research as an innovative approach that has not been adopted by previous studies. It can be used to have a comprehensive investigation of various housing aspects in all countries