Too much consensus could be harmful : measuring the degree of implementation of the Washington consensus and its impact on economic growth

In this paper, we construct a unique quantitative measure of the depth and pace of all aspects of IFI programs — the Washington consensus index (WCI), and we investigate their whole impact on economic growth. Two main conclusions emerge. Firstly, among observed countries, those who come up to Consensus expectations maintain a relatively high degree of government involvement. Secondly, when combined with usual explanatory variables, WCI presents a significant non-linear relation with the probability of getting a higher growth than others get. Thus, it seems that a “too fast” and/or a “too far” implementation of IFI programs, especially in regard of deregulation and monetary orthodoxy, can harm growth in developing countries. L’objectif de ce papier est double. Dans un premier temps, nous construisons un indicateur quantitatif mesurant le degré d’application des programmes des IFI – l’indicateur du consensus de Washington – pour ensuite évaluer par ce biais l’impact de ces programmes sur la croissance économique d’un certain nombre de pays en développement. Deux principales conclusions apparaissent. D’une part, parmi les pays observés, ceux qui répondent le mieux aux attentes des IFI le font en maintenant un certain degré d’implication de l’Etat. D’autre part, une fois introduit dans un modèle usuel de croissance, notre indicateur présente une relation non-linéaire avec la probabilité de bénéficier d’un taux de croissance économique supérieur à celui des autres pays. Ainsi, il apparaît qu’une mise en œuvre trop rapide ou trop importante des programmes des IFI, particulièrement en termes de déréglementation et de politique monétaire, nuit à la croissance des pays en développement. (Full text in english)

Piero Sraffa (1898-1983) : actualité de la théorie des prix de production

Within the context of circuit theory, we show that the works of Sraffa are still relevant and form, together with those of Keynes, the foundations of the post-classical paradigm in construction. Sraffa brings his production prices theory and stresses on social conflicts. Keynes provides, through his effective demand theory, the way of determining quantities that lacks to Sraffa and facilitate money integration. (Full text in French)

La dette des pays en développement : bilan et perspectives

La crise de la dette qui a débuté en 1982 est la conséquence d'un certain laxisme de la part des créanciers quant aux prêts accordés, d'une mauvaise utilisation des sommes reçues parles dirigeants des pays en développement et de la politique anti inflationniste menée au début des années 1980 par les pays occidentaux. Cette crise a été gérée, avec l'accord des créanciers, par les institutions financières internationales. Ainsi, le FMI et la Banque mondiale ont conditionné toute restructuration de dette à l'adoption de programmes d'ajustement structurel qui, loin de régler les maux dont souffrent les PED, ont conduit à la crise des années 1990 et se sont traduits par une mise sous tutelle des économies des pays en développement. Si les institutions financières internationales tentent d'infléchir leurs politiques, celles-ci participent toujours d'une logique libérale. En définitive, si l'on veut redonner une certaine liberté d'action aux PED, il convient de supprimer cet instrument de domination que constitue leur dette extérieure. Une telle annulation trouve des justifications tant économiques quepolitiques. The debt crisis which began in 1982 is the consequence of a certain laxism on behalf ofthe creditors as for the granted loans, of a misuse of the sums received by the leaders of thedeveloping countries and the anti inflationary policy followed at the beginning of the 1980's by the Western countries. This crisis has been managed, with the agreement of the creditors, by theinternational financial institutions. Thus, the IMF and the World Bank conditioned anyreorganization of debt to the adoption of structural adjustment programs which, far fromregulating the evils from which the developing countries suffer, led to the crisis of the 1990'sand resulted in a setting under supervision of the developing countries economies. If theinternational financial institutions try to modify their policies, those always take part of aliberal logic. Fundamentaly, if one wants to restore a certain liberty of action to thedeveloping countries, it is advisable to remove this instrument of domination which theirforeign debt constitutes. Such a cancellation finds justifications as well economic aspolitical. (Full text in French)

Demande effective, monnaie et prix de production : une extension circuitiste de la Théorie générale

Within the context of circuit theory, we show that the works of Keynes, expanded by those of Sraffa, are still relevant and form the foundations of the post-classical paradigm in construction, that puts together the contributions of neo-Ricardian and post-Keynesian analysis. Sraffa brings his production prices theory and stresses on social conflicts. Keynes provides, through his effective demand theory, the way of determining quantities that lacks to Sraffa and facilitate money integration. The final model brings to the fore that monetary interest rate is a key variable of the system. It allows to determinate wage rate, produced quantities, employment level, expected rate of profit and therefore prices. The wage rate is negociated before knowing the level of employment. It is a cost of production expressing the state of class struggle. The model also shows that disequilibrium is the result of wrong expectations about investment. (Full text in French)

Which development for the 21st century? Reflections on sustainable development\r\n (In French)

The objective of this paper, which synthesizes various researches, is twofold. First, starting from empirical studies, we show that development policies implemented since the beginning of the international debt crisis of 1982 led to a failure, showing that the Washington consensus based approach of development is unsustainable. Thus, from a heterodox perspective, we investigate the theoretical debate aiming at constructing a strong sustainability.Washington consensus, sustainable development, debt, Keynes, post Keynesians.

Sustainable Development in a Post Keynesian Perspective: Return to Basics of Ecodevelopment (In French)

While sustainable development is a unanimously accepted watchword today, we wish to show that the post Keynesian school, even if it did not emphasize on environmental issues and, generally speaking, on sustainable development as such, has tools that make it relevant on this topic. Indeed, post Keynesian sustainable development can be close to Sachs’ ecodevelopment, which is inspired by Kalecki. Thus, post Keynesianism and ecodevelopment share the same position related to economic growth. They meet, via the concept of radical uncertainty, on the importance of the precautionary principle. If the implications of the principle of effective demand seem to oppose them, these divergences can be easily overcome.sustainable development, ecodevelopment, Kalecki, Keynes, Sachs, post Keynesian

Which development for the 21st century? Reflections on sustainable development (In French)

The objective of this paper, which synthesizes various researches, is twofold. First, starting from empirical studies, we show that development policies implemented since the beginning of the international debt crisis of 1982 led to a failure, showing that the Washington consensus based approach of development is unsustainable. Thus, from a heterodox perspective, we investigate the theoretical debate aiming at constructing a strong sustainability.Washington consensus, sustainable development, debt, Keynes, post Keynesians

L'impact du consensus de Washington sur les pays en développement : une évaluation empirique

Le retournement idéologique opéré au début des années 1980 marque l'avènement de stratégies de développement libérales qui fondent le consensus de Washington. Nous souhaitons mesurer l'impact de ce dernier sur les pays en développement. Pour ce faire, nous créons dans un premier temps un indicateur numérique de suivi du consensus de Washington. Cet indicateur multidimensionnel est obtenu par une analyse en composantes principales de ses dix dimensions. Il permet de chiffrer, de 1980 à 2000, le degré d'engagement de 98 pays en développement dans le train de mesures prôné par les institutions financières internationales. D'autre part, il montre que le consensus de Washington n'est pas applicable dans l'intégralité de ses dix dimensions. Sur la base de cet indicateur, il est alors possible dans un second temps de confronter le degré de mise en œuvre du consensus au degré de réalisation de certains objectifs tels que la croissance, le développement, la réduction de la dette, la baisse des inégalités ou encore l'ouverture au commerce mondial. Ce faisant, nous montrons que les pays appliquant fidèlement les recommandations du consensus de Washington n'ont globalement pas obtenu de meilleurs résultats que les autres. Face à ce constat d'échec, la voie du post-consensus est alors explorée. The ideological reversal operated at the beginning of the 80's marks the advent of liberal development strategies which found the Washington consensus. We are interested in measuring the impact of this last on developing countries. With this intention, we initially create a numerical indicator of Washington consensus adoption. This multidimensional indicator is obtained by means of a principal components analysis of its ten dimensions. It makes it possible to quantify, from 1980 to 2000, the degree of commitment of 98 developing countries in the batch of measures advocated by the international financial institutions. Moreover, it shows that the Washington consensus is not applicable in the whole of its ten dimensions. On the basis of this indicator, it is then possible to confront the degree of implementation of the consensus with the degree of achievement of objectives such as growth, development, debt reduction, inequalities drop or world trade opening. By doing this, we show that assiduous countries did not obtain better results than the others. Facing this acknowledgement of failure, the way of post-consensus is then explored. (Full text in french)

Les promesses non tenues du (second) consensus de Washington dans les pays d'Amérique latine et des Caraïbes (1990-2003)

L’objectif de ce papier est double. Nous souhaitons dans un premier temps voir comment, et dans quelle mesure, les pays latino-américains et caribéens ont appliqué les préceptes du second consensus de Washington, c’est-à-dire d’un consensus qui met l’accent sur la libéralisation des mouvements de capitaux. Puis, nous mettons en évidence les effets de ce train de réformes sur leurs économies. Nous constatons ainsi que les pays ayant le plus scrupuleusement suivi ces prescriptions n’ont pas obtenu de meilleurs résultats économiques. Nous notons au contraire que leur situation en matière d’inégalité et d’endettement s’est beaucoup plus dégradée. The objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we show how, and to what extent, Latin-American and Caribbean countries applied the precepts of the second Washington consensus, i.e. a consensus which stresses the capital account liberalization. Secondly, we highlight the effects of this set of reforms on their economies. Thus, we show that countries having most scrupulously followed these recommendations did not obtain better economic results. On the contrary, their situation as regards inequality and debt is getting worse than others. (Full text in french)

Towards an other development (In French)

Starting from a definition of the concept of development centered on the satisfaction of the essential needs, health, education, feeding, we show that the present pattern of development, while trying to impose Western values all over the world, prevents developing countries from building their future and, on the contrary, maintains them under the domination of Occidental countries. If the liberalism carried out during the twenty last years accelerated the merchandization of the world, capitalist system in its mondialized version has to be re-examined. Maximum profit research, primacy of private economic values, competition and technical progress must be questioned. The other development wants, starting from the current situation, to take the measurement of the essential changes that we must implement as quickly as possible. Thus, in order to replace humans at the center of economic system, we have to grant a more important place to the non-commercial activities and the non-monetary relations, like gift, which implies to reconsider the unlimited growth target and to define a new measurement of wealth. We will be able to avoid the ecological disaster announced only by reintroducing ethical and moral values and by adopting with respect to technical progress a principle of reason.Capitalism, Development, Globalization, Decrease