Studies of opinion stability for small dynamic networks with opportunistic agents

There are numerous examples of societies with extremely stable mix of contrasting opinions. We argue that this stability is a result of an interplay between society network topology adjustment and opinion changing processes. To support this position we present a computer model of opinion formation based on some novel assumptions, designed to bring the model closer to social reality. In our model, the agents, in addition to changing their opinions due to influence of the rest of society and external propaganda, have the ability to modify their social network, forming links with agents sharing the same opinions and cutting the links with those they disagree with. To improve the model further we divide the agents into `fanatics' and `opportunists', depending on how easy is to change their opinions. The simulations show significant differences compared to traditional models, where network links are static. In particular, for the dynamical model where inter-agent links are adjustable, the final network structure and opinion distribution is shown to resemble real world observations, such as social structures and persistence of minority groups even when most of the society is against them and the propaganda is strong.Comment: Revised version accepted by International Journal of Modern Physics C Added analysis, references and a new figur

Distribution of extracellular flavins in a coastal marine basin and their relationship to redox gradients and microbial community members

The flavins (including flavin mononucleotide (FMN) and riboflavin (RF)) are a class of organic compounds synthesized by organisms to assist in critical redox reactions. While known to be secreted extracellularly by some species in laboratory-based cultures, flavin concentrations are largely unreported in the natural environment. Here, we present pore water and water column profiles of extracellular flavins (FMN and RF) and two degradation products (lumiflavin and lumichrome) from a coastal marine basin in the Southern California Bight alongside ancillary geochemical and 16S rRNA microbial community data. Flavins were detectable at picomolar concentrations in the water column (93–300 pM FMN, 14–40 pM RF) and low nanomolar concentrations in pore waters (250–2070 pM FMN, 11–210 pM RF). Elevated pore water flavin concentrations displayed an increasing trend with sediment depth and were significantly correlated with the total dissolved Fe (negative) and Mn (positive) concentrations. Network analysis revealed a positive relationship between flavins and the relative abundance of Dehalococcoidia and the MSBL9 clade of Planctomycetes, indicating possible secretion by members of these lineages. These results suggest that flavins are a common component of the so-called shared extracellular metabolite pool, especially in anoxic marine sediments where they exist at physiologically relevant concentrations for metal oxide reduction

Are Newspapers’ Online Discussion Boards Democratic Tools or Conspiracy Theories’ Engines? A Case Study on an Eastern European “Media War”

This article analyzes quantitatively and qualitatively 1,583 comments by national newspapers’ online readers in Bulgaria. It investigates readers’ reactions to articles discussing the media war between the biggest press groups—one owned by a Member of Parliament known as “the Murdoch of the East.” The study explores how these stories influence the relationship between newspapers and their readers, and whether they enhance the democratic potential of online discussion. The results show a higher level of reader engagement than in established democracies or nondemocracies. The online space provides an arena for democratic conversations and it is also used as an engine for conspiracy theories

Temporal evolution of shallow marine diagenetic environments: Insights from carbonate concretions

Early diagenesis of marine organic matter dramatically impacts Earth's surface chemistry by changing the burial potential of carbon and promoting the formation of authigenic mineral phases including carbonate concretions. Marine sediment-hosted carbonate concretions tend to form as a result of microbial anaerobic diagenetic reactions that degrade organic matter and methane, some of which require an external oxidant. Thus, temporal changes in the oxidation state of Earth's oceans may impart a first-order control on concretion authigenesis mechanisms through time. Statistically significant variability in concretion carbonate carbon isotope compositions indicates changes in shallow marine sediment diagenesis associated with Earth's evolving redox landscape. This variability manifests itself as an expansion in carbon isotope composition range broadly characterized by an increase in maximum and decrease in minimum isotope values through time. Reaction transport modelling helps to constrain the potential impacts of shifting redox chemistry and highlights the importance of organic carbon delivery to the seafloor, marine sulfate concentrations, methane production and external methane influx. The first appearance of conclusively anaerobic oxidation of methane-derived concretions occurs in the Carboniferous and coincides with a Paleozoic rise in marine sulfate. The muted variability recognized in older concretions (and in particular for Precambrian concretions) likely reflects impacts of a smaller marine sulfate reservoir and perhaps elevated marine dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations. Causes of the increase in carbon isotope maximum values through time are more confounding, but may be related to isotopic equilibration of dissolved inorganic carbon with externally derived methane. Ultimately the concretion isotope record in part reflects changes in organic matter availability and marine oxidation state, highlighting connections with the subsurface biosphere and diagenesis throughout geologic time

Contextual Analysis of Stakeholder Opinion on Management and Leadership Competencies for Undergraduate Medical Education: Informing Course Design

Background: The study aimed to conduct a contextual analysis of interviews intended to assist with the future design of a feasible and relevant leadership and management course for undergraduate medical students at King Abdulaziz University (KAU), Saudi Arabia. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study conducted at King Abdulaziz University (KAU), Saudi Arabia, during 2019. An exploratory qualitative approach, utilizing systematic content analysis, was used. Data were collected using semi-structured interviews that were conducted with 10 leaders who were stakeholders at KAU, health service providers at KAU hospital, and stakeholders in the Ministry of Health. Results: This study revealed critical findings that highlighted the areas in which KAU could instill better and adequate leadership and management skills in their undergraduate medical students. Multiple core categories for a leadership and management curriculum emerged with many interrelated themes. Most participants mentioned that leadership can be taught and that early exposure is beneficial for developing skills. Additionally, they stated that leaders should have a vision and the ability to articulate that vision. Conclusions: Different implementation challenges were described in relation to the availability of human resources, the current short supply of suitable teachers, and program design. Teaching methods recommended included simulations, lectures, and a project-based approach. Assessment methods that were recommended included objective structured clinical examination (OSCE), formative and summative assessments, self-assessments, and portfolios

Cyber security fear appeals:unexpectedly complicated

Cyber security researchers are starting to experiment with fear appeals, with a wide variety of designs and reported efficaciousness. This makes it hard to derive recommendations for designing and deploying these interventions. We thus reviewed the wider fear appeal literature to arrive at a set of guidelines to assist cyber security researchers. Our review revealed a degree of dissent about whether or not fear appeals are indeed helpful and advisable. Our review also revealed a wide range of fear appeal experimental designs, in both cyber and other domains, which confirms the need for some standardized guidelines to inform practice in this respect. We propose a protocol for carrying out fear appeal experiments, and we review a sample of cyber security fear appeal studies, via this lens, to provide a snapshot of the current state of play. We hope the proposed experimental protocol will prove helpful to those who wish to engage in future cyber security fear appeal research

Intra-Campaign Changes in Voting Preferences: The Impact of Media and Party Communication

An increasing number of citizens change and adapt their party preferences during the electoral campaign. We analyze which short-term factors explain intra-campaign changes in voting preferences, focusing on the visibility and tone of news media reporting and party canvassing. Our analyses rely on an integrative data approach, linking data from media content analysis to public opinion data. This enables us to investigate the relative impact of news media reporting as well as party communication. Inherently, we overcome previously identified methodological problems in the study of communication effects on voting behavior. Our findings reveal that campaigns matter: Especially interpersonal party canvassing increases voters’ likelihood to change their voting preferences in favor of the respective party, whereas media effects are limited to quality news outlets and depend on individual voters’ party ambivalence

Childbearing intentions in a low fertility context: the case of Romania

This paper applies the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to find out the predictors of fertility intentions in Romania, a low-fertility country. We analyse how attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control relate to the intention to have a child among childless individuals and one-child parents. Principal axis factor analysis confirms which items proposed by the Generation and Gender Survey (GGS 2005) act as valid and reliable measures of the suggested theoretical socio-psychological factors. Four parity-specific logistic regression models are applied to evaluate the relationship between the socio-psychological factors and childbearing intentions. Social pressure emerges as the most important aspect in fertility decision-making among childless individuals and one-child parents, and positive attitudes towards childbearing are a strong component in planning for a child. This paper also underlines the importance of the region-specific factors when studying childbearing intentions: planning for the second child significantly differs among the development regions, representing the cultural and socio-economic divisions of the Romanian territory

Discussing prognosis with older people with musculoskeletal pain: a cross-sectional study in general practice

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prognosis has been described as an important but neglected branch of clinical science. While patients' views have been sought in the context of life-threatening illness, similar research is lacking for patients presenting with common, non-life-threatening musculoskeletal complaints. The aim of this study was to gauge whether and why older patients with musculoskeletal pain think prognostic information is important, and how often they felt prognosis was discussed in the general practice consultation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional survey of consecutive patients aged 50 years of over presenting with non-inflammatory musculoskeletal pain to 5 Central Cheshire general practices. The frequency of responses to the prognostic questions were described and the association with sociodemographic, presenting pain complaint, and psychosocial variables explored using logistic regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>502 participants (77%) responded to the postal questionnaire. 165 (33%) participants reported discussing prognosis in the consultation with their GP. Discussions about prognosis were more often reported by male patients (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.09, 2.71) and those for whom this was their first consultation (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.16, 2.80). 402 (82%) participants thought that prognostic information was important. This was highest among those currently in paid employment (OR 2.95, 95% CI 1.33, 6.57). The reasons patients gave for believing prognostic information was important included 'knowing for the sake of knowing' and planning future activity. Reasons for not believing prognostic information to be important included the belief that progression of pain was inevitable and that nothing could be done to help.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Prognostic information is thought to be important amongst older people with musculoskeletal pain yet discussions occur infrequently in primary care. Barriers to effective prognostic communication and the exact information needs of patients are still unknown and warrant further research.</p