Poverty, Resource Scarcity and Incentives for Soil and Water Conservation: Analysis of Interactions with a Bio-economic Model

The paper examines the interlinkages between population pressure and poverty, possible impacts on household welfare and land management, and the consequent pathways of development in a low potential rural economy. A dynamic non-separable bio-economic model, calibrated using data from the Ethiopian highlands, is used to trace key relationships between population pressure, poverty and soil fertility management in smallholder agriculture characterized by high levels of soil degradation. Farm households maximize their discounted utility over the planning horizon. Land, labor and credit markets are imperfect. Hence, production, consumption and investment decisions are jointly determined in each period. The level of soil degradation is endogenous and has feedback effects on the stock and quality of the resource base. This may in turn influence land management choices. Under high population pressure, land becomes dearer relative to labor. This is likely to induce conservation investments, especially when conservation technologies do not take land out of production. When markets are imperfect, poverty in vital assets (e.g., oxen and labor) limits the ability or the willingness to invest in conservation and may lead to a less sustainable pathway. Boserup-type responses are more likely when (privately) profitable technologies exist and market imperfections do not limit farm-households' investment options.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Impacts of improving water management of smallholder agriculture in the Upper Blue Nile Basin

With its total area of about 200,000 square kilometers (km2), which is 20% of the country’s land mass, and accommodating 25% of the population, the Upper Blue Nile Basin (Abbay) is one of the most important river basins in Ethiopia. About 40% of agricultural products and 45% of the surface water of the country are contributed by this basin. However, the characteristic-intensive biophysical variation, rapid population growth, land degradation, climatic fluctuation and resultant low agricultural productivity and poverty are posing daunting challenges to sustainability of agricultural production systems in the basin. This calls for technological interventions that not only enhance productivity and livelihoods in the basin, but also bring about positive spillover effects on downstream water users. In this study, the farming systems in the basin have been stratified and characterized; and promising agricultural water management technologies, which may upgrade the productivity of smallholder rainfed agriculture while improving downstream water quality, have been identified. As a consequence, supplementary and full irrigation using rainwater and drainage of waterlogged soils are recognized as being among the promising agricultural water management technologies that can be easily scaled-up in the basin. The magnitude of the impacts of these technologies on the productivity of the upstream farming systems and the concomitant effects on the downstream water flow and quality are under investigation, assuming an assortment of scenarios.Length: pp.7-21River basinsFarming systemsCerealsRainfed farmingWater harvestingIrrigated farming

Assessment of local land and water institutions in the Blue Nile and their impact on environmental management

Land and water institutions play a vital role in managing and sustaining land and water resources as well as enhancing economic development and poverty alleviation efforts. While a lot has been done in terms of understanding the micro-determinants of farmers’ decisions in land and water conservation, there is little attempt to understand the broad macro-institutional and organizational issues that influence land and water management decisions. The objective of the study was to assess institutional arrangements and challenges for improved land and water management in the Ethiopian part of the Blue Nile Basin (Tana and Beles subbasins). Focus group discussions and key informant interviews were held in Amhara and Benishangul Gumuz regions with important stakeholders such as the bureaus of Agriculture and Rural Development, Water Resources Development, Environmental Protection and Land Use Administration (EPLUA), National Agricultural Research Systems, and important NGOs, operating in the area of land and water management, and selected community members. As the major findings in this study, we outlined major land and water-related institutional arrangements that are currently in place and their design features, in order to identify those institutions related to superior performance. We highlighted major institutional and policy gaps and actions that are required to respond to emerging issues of environmental degradation, upstream/downstream linkages and climate change. Such analysis of institutions and their design features provides useful insights and contributes to the debate on institutional reform for improved land and water management in the Blue Nile Basin, in general. By doing so, it identifies the gaps in institutional arrangements and policies and potential remedies.Length: pp.185-231InstitutionsOrganizationsWater policyRiver basinsWater managementLand managementWatershed management

Collective Action for Integrated Community Watershed Management in Semi-Arid India: Analysis of Multiple Livelihood Impacts and the Drivers of Change

Spatial and temporal attributes of watersheds and associated market failures require institutional arrangements for coordinating use and management of natural resources. Effective collective action (CA) for watershed management has the potential to provide multiple economic and environmental benefits - tangible and non-tangible - to rural communities. This allows smallholder farmers to jointly invest in management practices that provide collective benefits to community members. The functions of the group can also extend to include provision of new services like collective marketing of products and essential inputs. While watershed management contributes to resource productivity and sustainability, increased commercialization and market access open opportunities to diversify into high-value crops, creating incentives for agricultural intensification. However, evaluating the multi-faceted impacts of integrated watershed management interventions is complicated by problems of measurement, valuation and attribution. While, more rigorous methods for evaluating such impacts in the context of developing countries are beginning to emerge, this study employs a mix of qualitative and quantitative methods for evaluating these multi-faceted impacts from a case study of a watershed project in semi-arid India. Results from qualitative insights are confirmed through econometric analyses and empirical measurements using proper count erfactuals. The study analyses the drought mitigation, economic and environmental gains along with linked benefits for commercialization of production and increased farmer participation in markets.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Evaluation of current and future water resources development in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

Lakes / Weirs / Environmental flows / Water resources development / Models / Ethiopia / Lake Tana Basin / Chara Chara Weir

Determinants of Agricultural Technology adoption: the case of improved groundnut varieties in Malawi

This paper applies the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) framework on data obtained from a random cross-section sample of 594 farmers in Malawi to document the actual and potential adoption rates of improved groundnut varieties and their determinants conditional on farmers’ awareness of the technology. The fact that not all farmers are exposed to the new technologies makes it difficult to obtain consistent estimates of population adoption rates and their determinants using direct sample estimates and classical adoption models such as probit or tobit. Our approach tries to control for exposure and selection bias in assessing the adoption rate of technology and its determinants. Results indicate that only 26% of the sampled farmers grew at least one of the improved groundnut varieties. The potential adoption rate of improved groundnut for the population is estimated at 37% and the adoption gap resulting from the incomplete exposure of the population to the improved groundnut is 12%. We further find that the awareness of improved varieties is mainly influenced by information access variables, while adoption is largely influenced by economic constraints. The findings are indicative of the relatively large unmet demand for improved groundnut varieties suggesting that there is scope for increasing the adoption rate of improved groundnut varieties in Malawi once the farmers are made aware of the technologies and if other constraints such as lack of access to credit are addressed.groundnuts, adoption, Average Treatment Effect, Malawi, Crop Production/Industries,

Incidence and Predictors of Tuberculosis Among Adult PLWHA at Public Health Facilities of Hawassa City

Tuberculosis (TB) is the most frequently diagnosed opportunistic infection (OI) and disease in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), world-wide. This study aimed at determining the incidence and predictors of tuberculosis among people living with HIV.A Six year retrospective follow up study was conducted among adult PLHIV. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify predictors.A total of 554 patients were followed and produced 1830.3 person year of observation. One hundred sixty one new TB cases occurred during the follow up period. The overall incidence density of TB was 8.79 per 100 person-year (PY). It was high (148.71/100 PY) in the first year of enrolment. The cumulative proportion of TB free survival was 79% and 67% at the end of first and sixth years, respectively. Not having formal education(AHR=2.68, 95%CI: 1.41, 5.11 ), base line WHO clinical stage IV (AHR = 3.22, 95% CI=1.91-5.41), CD4 count <50 cell/ul (AHR=2.41, 95%CI=1.31, 4.42), Being bed redden (AHR= 2.89, 95%CI=1.72, 3.78), past TB history (AHR=1.65, 95% CI = 1.06,2.39), substance use (AHR=1.46, 95% CI=1.03,2.06) and being on pre ART (AHR=1.62, 95%CI:1.03-2.54 ) were independently predicted tuberculosis occurrence. Advanced WHO clinical stage, limited functional status, past TB history, addiction and low CD4 (<50cell/ul) count at enrollment were found to be the independent predictor of tuberculosis occurrence. Therefore early initiation of treatment and intensive follow up is important

Incidence and Predictors of Tuberculosis Among Adult PLWHA at Public Health Facilities of Hawassa City

Tuberculosis (TB) is the most frequently diagnosed opportunistic infection (OI) and disease in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), world-wide. This study aimed at determining the incidence and predictors of tuberculosis among people living with HIV.A Six year retrospective follow up study was conducted among adult PLHIV. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify predictors.A total of 554 patients were followed and produced 1830.3 person year of observation. One hundred sixty one new TB cases occurred during the follow up period. The overall incidence density of TB was 8.79 per 100 person-year (PY). It was high (148.71/100 PY) in the first year of enrolment. The cumulative proportion of TB free survival was 79% and 67% at the end of first and sixth years, respectively. Not having formal education(AHR=2.68, 95%CI: 1.41, 5.11 ), base line WHO clinical stage IV (AHR = 3.22, 95% CI=1.91-5.41), CD4 count <50 cell/ul (AHR=2.41, 95%CI=1.31, 4.42), Being bed redden (AHR= 2.89, 95%CI=1.72, 3.78), past TB history (AHR=1.65, 95% CI = 1.06,2.39), substance use (AHR=1.46, 95% CI=1.03,2.06) and being on pre ART (AHR=1.62, 95%CI:1.03-2.54 ) were independently predicted tuberculosis occurrence. Advanced WHO clinical stage, limited functional status, past TB history, addiction and low CD4 (<50cell/ul) count at enrollment were found to be the independent predictor of tuberculosis occurrence. Therefore early initiation of treatment and intensive follow up is important

Application of the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Model to simulate current and future water demand in the Blue Nile

The riparian countries of the Nile have agreed to collaborate in the development of its water resources for sustainable socioeconomic growth. Currently there is significant potential for expansion of hydropower and irrigation in the Blue Nile River in both Ethiopia and Sudan. However, the likely consequences of upstream development on downstream flows have not been fully assessed and the water resource implications of development in both countries are unclear. Against this background, the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was used to provide an assessment of both the current situation and a future (2015) scenario. The future scenario incorporated new irrigation and hydropower schemes on the main stem of the Nile and its principal tributaries. Data for all existing and planned schemes were obtained from the basin master plans as well as from scheme feasibility studies. Water use was simulated over a 32-year period of varying rainfall and flow. Preliminary results indicate that currently irrigation demand in Sudan is approximately 8.5 Bm3y-1 for 1.16 million hectares (mha). This compares to a total irrigation demand in Ethiopia of just 0.2 Bm3y-1. By 2015, with many existing schemes being extended in Sudan and new schemes being developed in both countries, irrigation demand is estimated to increase to 13.4 Bm3y-1 for 2.13 mha in Sudan and 1.1 Bm3y-1 for 210 thousand hectares (tha) in Ethiopia. The flow of the Blue Nile is estimated to decline from an average of 46.9 Bm3y-1 to 44.8 Bm3y-1 at the Ethiopia-Sudan border and from a current average of 43.2 Bm3y-1 to 36.2 Bm3y-1 at Khartoum (including evaporation from all reservoirs). Although total flows are reduced, greater regulation results in higher dry season flows at both locations.Length: pp.78-88River basin developmentSimulation modelsPlanningEvaluationWater demandReservoirsDams