Decomposing the drivers of polar amplification with a single-column model

This is the final version. Available from the American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this record. The code and data needed to reproduce all figures, tables, and supplemental figures are available at https:// github.com/matthewjhenry/HMLR19_SCM. Documentation for the Python ClimLab package can be found at https://climlab. readthedocs.io/. The top-of-atmosphere albedo data from the Cloud and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) can be found at https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/. The CMIP6 data are available on the Earth System Grid Federation database. TThe precise mechanisms driving Arctic amplification are still under debate. Previous attribution methods compute the vertically uniform temperature change required to balance the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance caused by each forcing and feedback, with any departures from vertically uniform warming collected into the lapse-rate feedback. We propose an alternative attribution method using a single-column model that accounts for the forcing dependence of high-latitude lapse-rate changes. We examine this method in an idealized general circulation model (GCM), finding that, even though the column-integrated carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing and water vapor feedback are stronger in the tropics, they contribute to polar-amplified surface warming as they produce bottom-heavy warming in high latitudes. A separation of atmospheric temperature changes into local and remote contributors shows that, in the absence of polar surface forcing (e.g., sea ice retreat), changes in energy transport are primarily responsible for the polar-amplified pattern of warming. The addition of surface forcing substantially increases polar surface warming and reduces the contribution of atmospheric dry static energy transport to the warming. This physically based attribution method can be applied to comprehensive GCMs to provide a clearer view of the mechanisms behind Arctic amplification.Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of CanadaNational Science Foundation (USA

Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth

Climate risks increase with mean global temperature, so knowledge about the amount of future global warming should better inform risk assessments for policymakers. Expected near-term warming is encapsulated by the transient climate response (TCR), formally defined as the warming following 70 years of 1% per year increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, by which point atmospheric CO2 has doubled. Studies based on Earth’s historical energy budget have typically estimated lower values of TCR than climate models, suggesting that some models could overestimate future warming. However, energy-budget estimates rely on historical temperature records that are geographically incomplete and blend air temperatures over land and sea ice with water temperatures over open oceans. We show that there is no evidence that climate models overestimate TCR when their output is processed in the same way as the HadCRUT4 observation-based temperature record3, 4. Models suggest that air-temperature warming is 24% greater than observed by HadCRUT4 over 1861–2009 because slower-warming regions are preferentially sampled and water warms less than air5. Correcting for these biases and accounting for wider uncertainties in radiative forcing based on recent evidence, we infer an observation-based best estimate for TCR of 1.66 °C, with a 5–95% range of 1.0–3.3 °C, consistent with the climate models considered in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report

Orbitally forced ice sheet fluctuations during the Marinoan Snowball Earth glaciation

Two global glaciations occurred during the Neoproterozoic. Snowball Earth theory posits that these were terminated after millions of years of frigidity when initial warming from rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations was amplified by the reduction of ice cover and hence a reduction in planetary albedo. This scenario implies that most of the geological record of ice cover was deposited in a brief period of melt-back. However, deposits in low palaeo-latitudes show evidence of glacial–interglacial cycles. Here we analyse the sedimentology and oxygen and sulphur isotopic signatures of Marinoan Snowball glaciation deposits from Svalbard, in the Norwegian High Arctic. The deposits preserve a record of oscillations in glacier extent and hydrologic conditions under uniformly high atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We use simulations from a coupled three-dimensional ice sheet and atmospheric general circulation model to show that such oscillations can be explained by orbital forcing in the late stages of a Snowball glaciation. The simulations suggest that while atmospheric CO2 concentrations were rising, but not yet at the threshold required for complete melt-back, the ice sheets would have been sensitive to orbital forcing. We conclude that a similar dynamic can potentially explain the complex successions observed at other localities

Genetic Diversity and Antimicrobial Resistance of Escherichia coli from Human and Animal Sources Uncovers Multiple Resistances from Human Sources

Escherichia coli are widely used as indicators of fecal contamination, and in some cases to identify host sources of fecal contamination in surface water. Prevalence, genetic diversity and antimicrobial susceptibility were determined for 600 generic E. coli isolates obtained from surface water and sediment from creeks and channels along the middle Santa Ana River (MSAR) watershed of southern California, USA, after a 12 month study. Evaluation of E. coli populations along the creeks and channels showed that E. coli were more prevalent in sediment compared to surface water. E. coli populations were not significantly different (P = 0.05) between urban runoff sources and agricultural sources, however, E. coli genotypes determined by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) were less diverse in the agricultural sources than in urban runoff sources. PFGE also showed that E. coli populations in surface water were more diverse than in the sediment, suggesting isolates in sediment may be dominated by clonal populations.Twenty four percent (144 isolates) of the 600 isolates exhibited resistance to more than one antimicrobial agent. Most multiple resistances were associated with inputs from urban runoff and involved the antimicrobials rifampicin, tetracycline, and erythromycin. The occurrence of a greater number of E. coli with multiple antibiotic resistances from urban runoff sources than agricultural sources in this watershed provides useful evidence in planning strategies for water quality management and public health protection

Alternative oxidase gene family in Hypericum perforatum L.: characterization and expression at the post-germinative phase

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity

ISSN:1752-0908ISSN:1752-089