Use of neuraminidase inhibitors for rapid containment of influenza: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual and household transmission studies

Objectives: To assess the effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors for use in rapid containment of influenza. Method: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis in accordance with the PRISMA statement. Healthcare databases and sources of grey literature were searched up to 2012 and records screened against protocol eligibility criteria. Data extraction and risk of bias assessments were performed using a piloted form. Results were synthesised narratively and we undertook meta-analyses to calculate pooled estimates of effect, statistical heterogeneity and assessed publication bias. Findings: Nine randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and eight observational studies met the inclusion criteria. Neuraminidase inhibitors provided 67 to 89% protection for individuals following prophylaxis. Meta-analysis of individual protection showed a significantly lower pooled odds of laboratory confirmed seasonal or influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 infection following oseltamivir usage compared to placebo or no therapy (n=8 studies; odds ratio (OR) 50.11; 95% confidence interval (CI)=50.06 to 0.20; p<0.001; I-2=58.7%). This result was comparable to the pooled odds ratio for individual protection with zanamivir (OR=0.23; 95% CI 0.16 to 0.35). Similar point estimates were obtained with widely overlapping 95% CIs for household protection with oseltamivir or zanamivir. We found no studies of neuraminidase inhibitors to prevent population-wide community transmission of influenza. Conclusion: Oseltamivir and zanamivir are effective for prophylaxis of individuals and households irrespective of treatment of the index case. There are no data which directly support an effect on wider community transmission

Development of a near-real-time global in situ daily precipitation dataset for 0000–0000 UTC

In this study, we have developed a global in situ daily precipitation dataset based on quasi-real-time sub-daily observations of precipitation totals for the 0000–0000 UTC (Co-ordinated Universal Time) day everywhere in the world. The sub-daily precipitation data from meteorological stations are obtained via the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Global Telecommunication System (GTS) and China Meteorological Administration Net (CMANet) archived by the National Meteorological Information Centre (NMIC) in China and the Integrated Surface Database (ISD) released by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) in the USA. We have combined these three sources into a global dataset, referred to as NMIC. Accumulated precipitation totals (depending on the country and the WMO region) are transmitted at a variety of times on the GTS. Of these, about 4,500 stations report daily for the 0000–0000 UTC day. Here, we significantly add to this, by developing two-way accumulation algorithms to decompose other reported sub-daily totals to shorter intervals, and then re-cumulate them where possible to the 0000–0000 UTC day. Using these algorithms, we increase by 51.1% of the number of stations during 2009–2016 to around 6,800 day−1. Additionally, date boundary adjustment (sliding between 1 and 6 hours either side of 0000 UTC) raises the data volume to between 7,800 and 8,700 day−1. We compare our NMIC product with the First Guess Daily (FGD) product from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and GHCN-Daily from NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information). Root mean square differences between our NMIC and GPCC FGD products over the 2009–2016 period are around 3.4–3.7 mm·day−1 and the average consistency percentage is about 75.1–76.8%. Greater differences between NMIC and GHCN-daily are found which are probably due to the non-uniform date boundary in GHCN-Daily

Global-scale evaluation of 22 precipitation datasets using gauge observations and hydrological modeling

Abstract. We undertook a comprehensive evaluation of 22 gridded (quasi-)global (sub-)daily precipitation (P) datasets for the period 2000–2016. Thirteen non-gauge-corrected P datasets were evaluated using daily P gauge observations from 76 086 gauges worldwide. Another nine gauge-corrected datasets were evaluated using hydrological modeling, by calibrating the HBV conceptual model against streamflow records for each of 9053 small to medium-sized ( <  50 000 km2) catchments worldwide, and comparing the resulting performance. Marked differences in spatio-temporal patterns and accuracy were found among the datasets. Among the uncorrected P datasets, the satellite- and reanalysis-based MSWEP-ng V1.2 and V2.0 datasets generally showed the best temporal correlations with the gauge observations, followed by the reanalyses (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and NCEP-CFSR) and the satellite- and reanalysis-based CHIRP V2.0 dataset, the estimates based primarily on passive microwave remote sensing of rainfall (CMORPH V1.0, GSMaP V5/6, and TMPA 3B42RT V7) or near-surface soil moisture (SM2RAIN-ASCAT), and finally, estimates based primarily on thermal infrared imagery (GridSat V1.0, PERSIANN, and PERSIANN-CCS). Two of the three reanalyses (ERA-Interim and JRA-55) unexpectedly obtained lower trend errors than the satellite datasets. Among the corrected P datasets, the ones directly incorporating daily gauge data (CPC Unified, and MSWEP V1.2 and V2.0) generally provided the best calibration scores, although the good performance of the fully gauge-based CPC Unified is unlikely to translate to sparsely or ungauged regions. Next best results were obtained with P estimates directly incorporating temporally coarser gauge data (CHIRPS V2.0, GPCP-1DD V1.2, TMPA 3B42 V7, and WFDEI-CRU), which in turn outperformed the one indirectly incorporating gauge data through another multi-source dataset (PERSIANN-CDR V1R1). Our results highlight large differences in estimation accuracy, and hence the importance of P dataset selection in both research and operational applications. The good performance of MSWEP emphasizes that careful data merging can exploit the complementary strengths of gauge-, satellite-, and reanalysis-based P estimates

Measurement of the cosmic microwave background polarization lensing power spectrum from two years of POLARBEAR data

We present a measurement of the gravitational lensing deflection power spectrum reconstructed with two seasons of cosmic microwave background polarization data from the POLARBEAR experiment. Observations were taken at 150 GHz from 2012 to 2014 and surveyed three patches of sky totaling 30 square degrees. We test the consistency of the lensing spectrum with a cold dark matter cosmology and reject the no-lensing hypothesis at a confidence of 10.9σ, including statistical and systematic uncertainties. We observe a value of AL = 1.33 ± 0.32 (statistical) ±0.02 (systematic) ±0.07 (foreground) using all polarization lensing estimators, which corresponds to a 24% accurate measurement of the lensing amplitude. Compared to the analysis of the first- year data, we have improved the breadth of both the suite of null tests and the error terms included in the estimation of systematic contamination

Global Reconstruction of Naturalized River Flows at 2.94 Million Reaches

Spatiotemporally continuous global river discharge estimates across the full spectrum of stream orders are vital to a range of hydrologic applications, yet they remain poorly constrained. Here we present a carefully designed modeling effort (Variable Infiltration Capacity land surface model and Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge river routing model) to estimate global river discharge at very high resolutions. The precipitation forcing is from a recently published 0.1° global product that optimally merged gauge-, reanalysis-, and satellite-based data. To constrain runoff simulations, we use a set of machine learning-derived, global runoff characteristics maps (i.e., runoff at various exceedance probability percentiles) for grid-by-grid model calibration and bias correction. To support spaceborne discharge studies, the river flowlines are defined at their true geometry and location as much as possible—approximately 2.94 million vector flowlines (median length 6.8 km) and unit catchments are derived from a high-accuracy global digital elevation model at 3-arcsec resolution (~90 m), which serves as the underlying hydrography for river routing. Our 35-year daily and monthly model simulations are evaluated against over 14,000 gauges globally. Among them, 35% (64%) have a percentage bias within ±20% (±50%), and 29% (62%) have a monthly Kling-Gupta Efficiency ≥0.6 (0.2), showing data robustness at the scale the model is assessed. This reconstructed discharge record can be used as a priori information for the Surface Water and Ocean Topography satellite mission's discharge product, thus named “Global Reach-level A priori Discharge Estimates for Surface Water and Ocean Topography”. It can also be used in other hydrologic applications requiring spatially explicit estimates of global river flows

Psychological stress and other potential triggers for recurrences of herpes simplex virus eye infections

Objective To assess psychological stress and other factors as possible triggers of ocular herpes simplex virus (HSV) recurrences. Design A prospective cohort study nested in a randomized, placebo-controlled, clinical trial. Setting Fifty-eight community-based or university sites. Participants Immunocompetent adults (N = 308), aged 18 years or older, with a documented history of ocular HSV disease in the prior year and observed for up to 15 months. Exposure Variables Psychological stress, systemic infection, sunlight exposure, menstrual period, contact lens wear, and eye injury recorded on a weekly log. The exposure period was considered to be the week before symptomatic onset of a recurrence. Main Outcome Measure The first documented recurrence of ocular HSV disease, with exclusion of cases in which the exposure week log was completed late after the onset of symptoms. Results Thirty-three participants experienced a study outcome meeting these criteria. Higher levels of psychological stress were not associated with an increased risk of recurrence (rate ratio, 0.58; 95% confidence interval, 0.32-1.05; P = .07). No association was found between any of the other exposure variables and recurrence. When an analysis was performed including only the recurrences (n = 26) for which the exposure week log was completed late and after symptom onset, there was a clear indication of retrospective overreporting of high stress (P = .03) and systemic infection (P = .01). Not excluding these cases could have produced incorrect conclusions due to recall bias. Conclusions Psychological stress does not appear to be a trigger of recurrences of ocular HSV disease. If not accounted for, recall bias can substantially overestimate the importance of factors that do not have a causal association with HSV infection

Energy Flow in the Hadronic Final State of Diffractive and Non-Diffractive Deep-Inelastic Scattering at HERA

An investigation of the hadronic final state in diffractive and non--diffractive deep--inelastic electron--proton scattering at HERA is presented, where diffractive data are selected experimentally by demanding a large gap in pseudo --rapidity around the proton remnant direction. The transverse energy flow in the hadronic final state is evaluated using a set of estimators which quantify topological properties. Using available Monte Carlo QCD calculations, it is demonstrated that the final state in diffractive DIS exhibits the features expected if the interaction is interpreted as the scattering of an electron off a current quark with associated effects of perturbative QCD. A model in which deep--inelastic diffraction is taken to be the exchange of a pomeron with partonic structure is found to reproduce the measurements well. Models for deep--inelastic $ep$ scattering, in which a sizeable diffractive contribution is present because of non--perturbative effects in the production of the hadronic final state, reproduce the general tendencies of the data but in all give a worse description.Comment: 22 pages, latex, 6 Figures appended as uuencoded fil

A Search for Selectrons and Squarks at HERA

Data from electron-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 300 GeV are used for a search for selectrons and squarks within the framework of the minimal supersymmetric model. The decays of selectrons and squarks into the lightest supersymmetric particle lead to final states with an electron and hadrons accompanied by large missing energy and transverse momentum. No signal is found and new bounds on the existence of these particles are derived. At 95% confidence level the excluded region extends to 65 GeV for selectron and squark masses, and to 40 GeV for the mass of the lightest supersymmetric particle.Comment: 13 pages, latex, 6 Figure

Codes of Fair Competition: The National Recovery Act, 1933-1935, and the Women’s Dress Manufacturing Industry

Controversial issues prevalent in today’s ready-to-wear apparel industry include the right of workers to join unions, the proliferation of sweatshops and sweatshop conditions, and design piracy. The idea of forming codes of conduct to establish criteria of ethical business practices is not new to the apparel industry. Indeed, the women’s dress manufacturing industry discussed and debated codes of fair competition under the New Deal Policies of the National Recovery Act (NRA) of 1933 to 1935. Primary sources for this study included governmental hearings in the establishment of the NRA Dress Code, The New York Times, Women’s Wear Daily, and the Journal of the Patent Office Society. The history of the NRA codes implemented in the U.S. women’s ready-to-wear apparel industry provides an important case study highlighting the difficulties and complexities of creating and achieving industry-wide standard practices through self-regulation. The failure of the NRA demonstrates that even with the joint cooperation of industry, labor, and consumer groups and the backing of the force of law, codes of fair competition proved impossible to enforce