Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning

Anthropogenic warming has led to an unprecedented year-round reduction in Arctic sea ice extent. This has far-reaching consequences for indigenous and local communities, polar ecosystems, and global climate, motivating the need for accurate seasonal sea ice forecasts. While physics-based dynamical models can successfully forecast sea ice concentration several weeks ahead, they struggle to outperform simple statistical benchmarks at longer lead times. We present a probabilistic, deep learning sea ice forecasting system, IceNet. The system has been trained on climate simulations and observational data to forecast the next 6 months of monthly-averaged sea ice concentration maps. We show that IceNet advances the range of accurate sea ice forecasts, outperforming a state-of-the-art dynamical model in seasonal forecasts of summer sea ice, particularly for extreme sea ice events. This step-change in sea ice forecasting ability brings us closer to conservation tools that mitigate risks associated with rapid sea ice loss

The SPHERE Study. Secondary prevention of heart disease in general practice: protocol of a randomised controlled trial of tailored practice and patient care plans with parallel qualitative, economic and policy analyses. [ISRCTN24081411]

BACKGROUND: The aim of the SPHERE study is to design, implement and evaluate tailored practice and personal care plans to improve the process of care and objective clinical outcomes for patients with established coronary heart disease (CHD) in general practice across two different health systems on the island of Ireland. CHD is a common cause of death and a significant cause of morbidity in Ireland. Secondary prevention has been recommended as a key strategy for reducing levels of CHD mortality and general practice has been highlighted as an ideal setting for secondary prevention initiatives. Current indications suggest that there is considerable room for improvement in the provision of secondary prevention for patients with established heart disease on the island of Ireland. The review literature recommends structured programmes with continued support and follow-up of patients; the provision of training, tailored to practice needs of access to evidence of effectiveness of secondary prevention; structured recall programmes that also take account of individual practice needs; and patient-centred consultations accompanied by attention to disease management guidelines. METHODS: SPHERE is a cluster randomised controlled trial, with practice-level randomisation to intervention and control groups, recruiting 960 patients from 48 practices in three study centres (Belfast, Dublin and Galway). Primary outcomes are blood pressure, total cholesterol, physical and mental health status (SF-12) and hospital re-admissions. The intervention takes place over two years and data is collected at baseline, one-year and two-year follow-up. Data is obtained from medical charts, consultations with practitioners, and patient postal questionnaires. The SPHERE intervention involves the implementation of a structured systematic programme of care for patients with CHD attending general practice. It is a multi-faceted intervention that has been developed to respond to barriers and solutions to optimal secondary prevention identified in preliminary qualitative research with practitioners and patients. General practitioners and practice nurses attend training sessions in facilitating behaviour change and medication prescribing guidelines for secondary prevention of CHD. Patients are invited to attend regular four-monthly consultations over two years, during which targets and goals for secondary prevention are set and reviewed. The analysis will be strengthened by economic, policy and qualitative components

Insightful Problem Solving in an Asian Elephant

The “aha” moment or the sudden arrival of the solution to a problem is a common human experience. Spontaneous problem solving without evident trial and error behavior in humans and other animals has been referred to as insight. Surprisingly, elephants, thought to be highly intelligent, have failed to exhibit insightful problem solving in previous cognitive studies. We tested whether three Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) would use sticks or other objects to obtain food items placed out-of-reach and overhead. Without prior trial and error behavior, a 7-year-old male Asian elephant showed spontaneous problem solving by moving a large plastic cube, on which he then stood, to acquire the food. In further testing he showed behavioral flexibility, using this technique to reach other items and retrieving the cube from various locations to use as a tool to acquire food. In the cube's absence, he generalized this tool utilization technique to other objects and, when given smaller objects, stacked them in an attempt to reach the food. The elephant's overall behavior was consistent with the definition of insightful problem solving. Previous failures to demonstrate this ability in elephants may have resulted not from a lack of cognitive ability but from the presentation of tasks requiring trunk-held sticks as potential tools, thereby interfering with the trunk's use as a sensory organ to locate the targeted food

Genome and Transcriptome Analysis of the Food-Yeast Candida utilis

The industrially important food-yeast Candida utilis is a Crabtree effect-negative yeast used to produce valuable chemicals and recombinant proteins. In the present study, we conducted whole genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of C. utilis, which showed that this yeast diverged long before the formation of the CUG and Saccharomyces/Kluyveromyces clades. In addition, we performed comparative genome and transcriptome analyses using next-generation sequencing, which resulted in the identification of genes important for characteristic phenotypes of C. utilis such as those involved in nitrate assimilation, in addition to the gene encoding the functional hexose transporter. We also found that an antisense transcript of the alcohol dehydrogenase gene, which in silico analysis did not predict to be a functional gene, was transcribed in the stationary-phase, suggesting a novel system of repression of ethanol production. These findings should facilitate the development of more sophisticated systems for the production of useful reagents using C. utilis

A Phenotypic Profile of the Candida albicans Regulatory Network

Candida albicans is a normal resident of the gastrointestinal tract and also the most prevalent fungal pathogen of humans. It last shared a common ancestor with the model yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae over 300 million years ago. We describe a collection of 143 genetically matched strains of C. albicans, each of which has been deleted for a specific transcriptional regulator. This collection represents a large fraction of the non-essential transcription circuitry. A phenotypic profile for each mutant was developed using a screen of 55 growth conditions. The results identify the biological roles of many individual transcriptional regulators; for many, this work represents the first description of their functions. For example, a quarter of the strains showed altered colony formation, a phenotype reflecting transitions among yeast, pseudohyphal, and hyphal cell forms. These transitions, which have been closely linked to pathogenesis, have been extensively studied, yet our work nearly doubles the number of transcriptional regulators known to influence them. As a second example, nearly a quarter of the knockout strains affected sensitivity to commonly used antifungal drugs; although a few transcriptional regulators have previously been implicated in susceptibility to these drugs, our work indicates many additional mechanisms of sensitivity and resistance. Finally, our results inform how transcriptional networks evolve. Comparison with the existing S. cerevisiae data (supplemented by additional S. cerevisiae experiments reported here) allows the first systematic analysis of phenotypic conservation by orthologous transcriptional regulators over a large evolutionary distance. We find that, despite the many specific wiring changes documented between these species, the general phenotypes of orthologous transcriptional regulator knockouts are largely conserved. These observations support the idea that many wiring changes affect the detailed architecture of the circuit, but not its overall output

Mother's occupation and sex ratio at birth

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Many women are working outside of the home, occupying a multitude of jobs with varying degrees of responsibilities and levels of psychological stress. We investigated whether different job types in women are associated with child sex at birth, with the hypothesis that women in job types, which are categorized as "high psychological stress" jobs, would be more likely to give birth to a daughter than a son, as females are less vulnerable to unfavourable conditions during conception, pregnancy and after parturition, and are less costly to carry to term.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We investigated the effects of mother's age, maternal and paternal job type (and associated psychological stress levels) and paternal income on sex ratio at birth. Our analyses were based on 16,384 incidences of birth from a six-year (2000 to 2005 inclusive) childbirth dataset from Addenbrooke's Hospital in Cambridge, UK. We obtained a restricted data set from Addenbrooke's hospital with: maternal age, maternal and paternal occupations, and whether or not the child was first-born.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Women in job types that were categorized as "high stress" were more likely to give birth to daughters, whereas women in job types that were categorized as "low stress" had equal sex ratios or a slight male bias in offspring. We also investigated whether maternal age, and her partner's income could be associated with reversed offspring sex ratio. We found no association between mother's age, her partner's job stress category or partner income on child sex. However, there was an important interaction between job stress category and partner income in some of the analyses. Partner income appears to attenuate the association between maternal job stress and sex ratios at moderate-income levels, and reverse it at high-income levels.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>To our knowledge this is the first report on the association between women's job type stress categories and offspring sex ratio in humans, and the potential mitigating effect of their partners' income.</p

Measuring the positive psychological well-being of people with rheumatoid arthritis: a cross-sectional validation of the subjective vitality scale

Introduction: People with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) frequently suffer from compromised physical and psychological health, however, little is known about positive indicators of health, due to a lack of validated outcome measures. This study aims to validate a clinically relevant outcome measure of positive psychological well-being for people with RA. The first study examined the reliability and factorial validity of the Subjective Vitality Scale (SVS), whilst study 2 tested the instruments convergent validity. Methods: In study 1, National Rheumatoid Arthritis Society members (N = 333; M age = 59.82 years SD = 11.00) completed a postal questionnaire. For study 2, participants (N = 106; M age = 56 years, SD = 12 years) were those recruited to a randomized control trial comparing two physical activity interventions who completed a range of health-related questionnaires. Results: The SVS had a high level of internal consistency (α = .93, Rho = .92). Confirmatory factor analysis supported the uni-dimensional factor structure of the questionnaire among RA patients [χ = 1327 (10), CFI = 1.0, SRMSR = .01 and RMSEA = .00 (.00 - .08)]. Support for the scales convergent validity was revealed by significant (p < .05) relationships, in expected directions, with health related quality of life (r = .59), physical function (r = .58), feelings of fatigue (r = −.70), anxiety (r = −.57) and depression (r = −.73). Conclusions: Results from two studies have provided support for the internal consistency, factorial structure and convergent validity of the Subjective Vitality Scale. Researchers and healthcare providers may employ this clinically relevant, freely available and brief assessment with the confidence that it is a valid and reliable measure of positive psychological well-being for RA patients

Transactional paths between children and parents in pediatric asthma: Associations between family relationships and adaptation

Introduction. The particular challenges posed by pediatric asthma may have a negative impact on the adaptation of children and their parents. From a transactional approach it is important to examine how reciprocal links between children and parents contribute to explain their adaptation and under which conditions these associations occur. This cross-sectional study aimed at examining the direct and indirect links between children’s and parents’ perceptions of family relationships and adaptation, separately (within-subjects) and across participants (cross-lagged effects), and the role of asthma severity in moderating these associations. Method. The sample comprised 257 children with asthma, aged between 8 and 18 years-old, and one of their parents. Both family members completed self-reported questionnaires on family relationships (cohesion and expressiveness) and adaptation indicators (quality of life and psychological functioning). Physicians assessed asthma severity. Structural Equation Modeling was used to test within-subjects and cross-lagged paths between children’s and parents’ family relationships and adaptation. Results. The model explained 47% of children’s and 30% of parents’ adaptation: family relationships were positively associated with adaptation, directly for children and parents, and indirectly across family members. Asthma severity moderated the association between family relationships and health-related quality of life for children: stronger associations were observed in the presence of persistent asthma. Conclusion. These results highlight the need of including psychological interventions in pediatric healthcare focused on family relationships as potential targets for improving children’s and parents’ quality of life and psychological functioning, and identified the children with persistent asthma as a group that would most benefit from family-based interventions.This study was supported by the R&D Unit Institute of Cognitive Psychology, Vocational and Social Development of the University of Coimbra (PEst-OE/PSI/UI0192/2011) and by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (PhD Grant SFRH/BD/69885/2010)

Mangrove trees affect the community structure and distribution of anammox bacteria at an anthropogenic-polluted mangrove in the Pearl River Delta reflected by 16S rRNA and hydrazine oxidoreductase (HZO) encoding gene analyses

Anaerobic ammonium oxidizing (anammox) bacterial community structures were investigated in surface (1–2 cm) and lower (20–21 cm) layers of mangrove sediments at sites located immediately to the mangrove trees (S0), 10 m (S1) and 1000 m (S2) away from mangrove trees in a polluted area of the Pearl River Delta. At S0, both 16S rRNA and hydrazine oxidoreductase (HZO) encoding genes of anammox bacteria showed high diversity in lower layer sediments, but they were not detectable in lower layer sediments in mangrove forest. S1 and S2 shared similar anammox bacteria communities in both surface and lower layers, which were quite different from that of S0. At all three locations, higher richness of anammox bacteria was detected in the surface layer than the lower layer; 16S rRNA genes revealed anammox bacteria were composed by four phylogenetic clusters affiliated with the “Scalindua” genus, and one group related to the potential anammox bacteria; while the hzo genes showed that in addition to sequences related to the “Scalindua”, sequences affiliated with genera of “Kuenenia”, “Brocadia”, and “Jettenia” were also detected in mangrove sediments. Furthermore, hzo gene abundances decreased from 36.5 × 104 to 11.0 × 104 copies/gram dry sediment in lower layer sediments while increased from below detection limit to 31.5 × 104 copies/gram dry sediment in lower layer sediments from S0 to S2. The results indicated that anammox bacteria communities might be strongly influenced by mangrove trees. In addition, the correlation analysis showed the redox potential and the molar ratio of ammonium to nitrite in sediments might be important factors affecting the diversity and distribution of anammox bacteria in mangrove sediments