Measuring the NAIRU with Reduced Uncertainty: A Multiple-Indicator Common-Cycle Approach

Standard estimates of the NAIRU or natural rate of unemployment are subject to considerable uncertainty. We show in this paper that using multiple indicators to extract an estimated NAIRU cuts in half uncertainty as measured by variance and gives a 33% reduction in the confidence band. The inclusion of an Okun's Law relation is particularly valuable. The essential notion is the existence of a common cyclical force driving the macroeconomic variables. Model comparisons based on the use of Bayes factors favor the idea of a common cyclical component. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Destruction of superconductivity through phase fluctuations in ultrathin a -MoGe films

Superconductivity occurs in metals when attractive interactions between electrons promote the formation of Cooper pairs which get locked in a phase-coherent state, leading to superfluid behavior. In situations where the phase stiffness falls below the pairing energy, the superconducting transition temperature Tc is driven by phase fluctuations and pairing can continue to survive above Tc. Such a behavior has long been thought of as the hallmark of unconventional superconductivity. Here we combine sub-K scanning tunneling spectroscopy, magnetic penetration depth measurements, and magnetotransport measurements to show that in ultrathin amorphous MoGe (a-MoGe) films the superfluid density is strongly suppressed by quantum phase fluctuations at low temperatures for thickness below 5 nm. This is associated with a rapid decrease in the superconducting transition temperature Tc and the emergence of a pronounced pseudogap above Tc. These observations suggest that even in conventional superconductors strong disorder and low dimensionality will ultimately trigger a Bosonic route for the destruction of superconductivity