Revisiting the Decline i he Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Further Evidence from Developing Countries.

The main purpose of the paper is to contribute to the empirical works relating to exchange rate pass-through. Indeed, we revisit the Taylor (2000) proposition for some developing countries in order to examine the decline in their pass-through coefficients, and to find possible explanations for this. To that effect, we adopt an empirical methodology based on some structural breaks and cointegration tests proposed respectively by Bai and Perron (1998), and Gregory and Hansen (1996). Our work is motivated by the fact that during the 1990s, some developing countries shifted their monetary policy in order to reduce the inflation.Exchange rate pass-through ; Developing countries ; Structural changes ; Cointegration tests.

Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?

This paper compares the GDP forecasting performance of alternative factor models based on monthly time series for the French economy. These models are based on static and dynamic principal components. The dynamic principal components are obtained using time and frequency domain methods. The forecasting accuracy is evaluated in two ways for GDP growth. First, we question whether it is more appropriate to use aggregate or disaggregate data (with three disaggregating levels) to extract the factors. Second, we focus on the determination of the number of factors obtained either from various criteria or from a fixed choice.GDP forecasting ; Factor models ; Data aggregation.

Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise.

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of quarterly GDP growth. Amongst the latter, we consider small bridge equations and forecast equations in which the bridging between monthly and quarterly data is achieved through a regression on factors extracted from large monthly datasets. The forecasting exercise is performed in a simulated real-time context, which takes account of publication lags in the individual series. In general, we find that models that exploit monthly information outperform models that use purely quarterly data and, amongst the former, factor models perform best.Bridge models ; Dynamic factor models ; real-time data flow.

Short-Term Forecasting of GDP Using Large Monthly Datasets: A Pseudo Real-Time Forecast Evaluation Exercise

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of quarterly GDP growth. Amongst the latter, we consider small bridge equations and forecast equations in which the bridging between monthly and quarterly data is achieved through a regression on factors extracted from large monthly datasets. The forecasting exercise is performed in a simulated real-time context, which takes account of publication lags in the individual series. In general, we find that models that exploit monthly information outperform models that use purely quarterly data and, amongst the former, factor models perform best.Bridge models, Dynamic factor models, real-time data flow model

OPTIM : un outil de prévision trimestrielle du PIB de la France.

Le modèle OPTIM permet de prévoir, chaque mois, les taux de croissance du PIB de la France et de ses principales composantes, pour le trimestre en cours et le trimestre suivant. Ce modèle mobilise un large éventail de données macro-économiques mensuelles et de données d’enquête, sélectionnées par une procédure statistique automatique.Prévision, taux de croissance du PIB, modèle d’étalonnage, approche “general-to-specific”.

Monthly forecasting of French GDP: A revised version of the OPTIM model.

This paper presents a revised version of the model OPTIM, proposed by Irac and Sédillot (2002), used at the Banque de France in order to predict French GDP quarterly growth rate, for the current and next quarters. The model is designed to be used on a monthly basis by integrating monthly economic information through bridge models, for both supply and demand sides of GDP. For each GDP component, bridge equations are specified by using a general-to-specific approach implemented in an automated way by Hoover and Perez (1999) and improved by Krolzig and Hendry (2001). This approach allows to select explanatory variables among a large data set of hard and soft data. The final choice of equations relies on a recursive forecast study, which also helps to assess the forecasting performance of the revised OPTIM model in the prediction of aggregated GDP. This study is based on pseudo real-time forecasts taking publication lags into account. It turns out that the model outperforms benchmark models.GDP forecasting ; Bridge models ; General-to-specific approach

Améloblastome mandibulaire place de la radiothérapie

L’améloblastome est la tumeur odontogénique la plus fréquente. il  représente 1% des tumeurs mandibulaires et maxillaires et atteint la mandibule dans 80% des cas. Son traitement se base essentiellement sur la chirurgie lorsque cela est possible. La radiothérapie est réservée aux formes inopérables localement évoluées et métastatiques. Les auteurs rapportent le cas d’un patient présentant un améloblastome mandibulaire kystique traité par radiothérapie exclusive.Mots clés: Améloblastome, mandibule, radiothérapi

Changes of Sand Fly Populations and Leishmania infantum Infection Rates in an Irrigated Village Located in Arid Central Tunisia

Citation: Barhoumi, W., Fares, W., Cherni, S., Derbali, M., Dachraoui, K., Chelbi, I., . . . Zhioua, E. (2016). Changes of Sand Fly Populations and Leishmania infantum Infection Rates in an Irrigated Village Located in Arid Central Tunisia. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 13(3), 10. doi:10.3390/ijerph13030329The current spread of zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL) throughout arid areas of Central Tunisia is a major public health concern. The main objective of this study is to investigate whether the development of irrigation in arid bio-geographical areas in Central Tunisia have led to the establishment of a stable cycle involving sand flies of the subgenus Larroussius and Leishmania infantum, and subsequently to the emergence of ZVL. Sand flies were collected from the village of Saddaguia, a highly irrigated zone located within an arid bio-geographical area of Central Tunisia by using modified Centers for Diseases Control (CDC) light traps. Morphological keys were used to identify sand flies. Collected sand flies were pooled with up to 30 specimens per pool according to date and tested by nested Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) DNA sequencing from positive pools was used to identify Leishmania spp. A total of 4915 sand flies (2422 females and 2493 males) were collected from Saddaguia in September and in October 2014. Morphological identification confirmed sand flies of the subgenus Larroussius to be predominant. PCR analysis followed by DNA sequencing indicated that 15 pools were infected with L. infantum yielding an overall infection rate of 0.6%. The majority of the infected pools were of sand fly species belonging to subgenus Larroussius. Intense irrigation applied to the arid bio-geographical areas in Central Tunisia is at the origin of the development of an environment capable of sustaining important populations of sand flies of the subgenus Larroussius. This has led to the establishment of stable transmission cycles of L. infantum and subsequently to the emergence of ZVL

Low energy measurement of the 7Be(p,gamma)8B cross section

We have measured the cross section of the 7Be(p,gamma)8B reaction for E_cm = 185.8 keV, 134.7 keV and 111.7 keV using a radioactive 7Be target (132 mCi). Single and coincidence spectra of beta^+ and alpha particles from 8B and 8Be^* decay, respectively, were measured using a large acceptance spectrometer. The zero energy S factor inferred from these data is 18.5 +/- 2.4 eV b and a weighted mean value of 18.8 +/- 1.7 eV b (theoretical uncertainty included) is deduced when combining this value with our previous results at higher energies.Comment: Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. Let

Activation of GPER Induces Differentiation and Inhibition of Coronary Artery Smooth Muscle Cell Proliferation

BACKGROUND: Vascular pathology and dysfunction are direct life-threatening outcomes resulting from atherosclerosis or vascular injury, which are primarily attributed to contractile smooth muscle cells (SMCs) dedifferentiation and proliferation by re-entering cell cycle. Increasing evidence suggests potent protective effects of G-protein coupled estrogen receptor 1 (GPER) activation against cardiovascular diseases. However, the mechanism underlying GPER function remains poorly understood, especially if it plays a potential role in modulating coronary artery smooth muscle cells (CASMCs). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The objective of our study was to understand the functional role of GPER in CASMC proliferation and differentiation in coronary arteries using from humans and swine models. We found that the GPER agonist, G-1, inhibited both human and porcine CASMC proliferation in a concentration- (10(−8) to 10(−5) M) and time-dependent manner. Flow cytometry revealed that treatment with G-1 significantly decreased the proportion of S-phase and G2/M cells in the growing cell population, suggesting that G-1 inhibits cell proliferation by slowing progression of the cell cycle. Further, G-1-induced cell cycle retardation was associated with decreased expression of cyclin B, up-regulation of cyclin D1, and concomitant induction of p21, and partially mediated by suppressed ERK1/2 and Akt pathways. In addition, G-1 induces SMC differentiation evidenced by increased α-smooth muscle actin (α-actin) and smooth muscle protein 22α (SM22α) protein expressions and inhibits CASMC migration induced by growth medium. CONCLUSION: GPER activation inhibits CASMC proliferation by suppressing cell cycle progression via inhibition of ERK1/2 and Akt phosphorylation. GPER may constitute a novel mechanism to suppress intimal migration and/or synthetic phenotype of VSMC