Bayesian networks for identifying incorrect probabilistic intuitions in a climate trend uncertainty quantification context

Probabilistic thinking can often be unintuitive. This is the case even for simple problems, let alone the more complex ones arising in climate modelling, where disparate information sources need to be combined. The physical models, the natural variability of systems, the measurement errors and their dependence upon the observational period length should be modelled together in order to understand the intricacies of the underlying processes. We use Bayesian networks (BNs) to connect all the above-mentioned pieces in a climate trend uncertainty quantification framework. Inference in such models allows us to observe some seemingly nonsensical outcomes. We argue that they must be pondered rather than discarded until we understand how they arise. We would like to stress that the main focus of this paper is the use of BNs in complex probabilistic settings rather than the application itself.Accepted Author ManuscriptApplied Probabilit

Orbit and Clock Product Generation

Many sophisticated Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) applications require high-precision satellite orbit and clock products. The GNSS orbits and clocks are usually derived from the analysis of tracking data collected by a globally distributed GNSS receiver network. The estimation process adjusts parameters for the satellite orbits, transmitter and receiver clocks, station positions, tropospheric delays, Earth orientation, intersystem and interfrequency biases, and carrier-phase ambiguities. The estimation requires detailed modeling of geophysical processes, atmospheric and relativistic effects, receiver tracking modes, antenna phase centers, spacecraft properties, and attitude control algorithms. This chapter describes precise orbit and clock determination of the GNSS constellations as performed by the analysis centers of the International GNSS Service, including models, estimation strategies, products, and the combination of orbit and clock solutions