REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND GIS METHODS FOR ASSESSMENT OF THE PLAGUE EPIZOOTIC ACTIVITY OF KAZAKH NATURAL PLAGUE FOCI

The plague natural foci of Kazakhstan are a complicated system of relations between the plague microbe, warm-blood host and vector. The complex approaches used for study of the processes of the plague epizooty and prognosis it. Use of computerized programs with the classic methods of study helps to process the data in time and space. For epidemiological and epizootological analysis the passport data of the strains Y. pestis isolated by Zhosaly Anti-plague Station of the Republic of Kazakhstan in 1990-2012 were processed. The Anti-plague Station carries out the epizootic study of the landscape and epizootology regions as the North Qizilqum, East Karakum, and West part of Aryskum-Dariyalyktakyr. From 1990 to 2012 there were 295 plague strains isolated, 57 % of them were isolated from rodents, and 49,3 % of them were isolated from vectors (ticks and fleas). The passport data for 1990-2011 of three mentioned above landscape and epizootology regions were processed by STATA 12 program; and the regression models of the North Qizilqum and East Karakum were created. The model shows that the plague epizooty activity has been declining by the years. The second model shows that the plague activity in the North Qizilqum has been increasing by the years. Also the passport data of the strains Y. pestis isolated in two natural plague foci of Central Asia desert plague focus as Qizilqum and Aryskum-Dariyalyktakyr natural foci were processed by ArcGIS 10. The regression analysis and modeling in ArcGIS 10 give the opportunities for carrying out of spatial and temporal characteristics of conditions of epizootic activities of the natural plague foci, for detection more possible regions where people livestock as camels can be infected with plague and for prevention of infection of people during their activities. Application of this analysis in the complex of epizootic and epidemiological analysis gives the possibility to prognosis of possible plague epidemic complications and make remote prognosis for carrying out of the prophylaxis measurements under the influences of anthropogenic transformation of the foci, social and climatic factors and can help to survey the foci and protect the population who live there. Use of the regression analysis in the epidemiological and epizootological monitoring of the plague in the natural plague foci can help to prognosis the dynamics of the plague epizooty in the foci and detect a correlation between the microbe, vector, and host of the plague

Zoning of the Territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan by the Degree of Intensity of the Epizootic Situation on Plague in Camels

The aim of the study was to improve epizootiological monitoring and increase the effectiveness of preventive (anti-epidemic) measures for camel plague control in Kazakhstan.Materials and methods. We used the data on epizootiological and epidemiological monitoring in natural plague foci of Kazakhstan, long-term measurements and indicators for the period of 2000–2020 of the anti-plague and veterinary services of the Republic for the analysis. To process the evidence, epidemiological, epizootiological, microbiological, and statistical research methods, as well as GIS technology were applied.Results and discussion. The number of camels has increased by 2.2 times in Kazakhstan over the past 20 years.  Where there were 98.2 thousand heads in 2000, it amounted to 216.4 thousand heads in 2020. Over the past 10 years, 152 camels died of unknown causes in the focal area of the country, but laboratory tests for plague turned out negative. According to the hazard criteria, the territory of the country has been conditionally divided into three zones: five regions with a high degree of hazard with a total area of 953.15 sq. km, five regions with medium degree of hazard with a total area of 1230.72 sq. km, and with a low degree of hazard – four regions and three cities of republican significance with a total area of 541.1 sq. km. Constant epizootiological monitoring over plague in camels is a necessity for the system of preventive measures

Mapping Plague Risk Using Super Species Distribution Models and Forecasts for Rodents in the Zhambyl Region, Kazakhstan

Abstract One of the most extensive natural plague centers, or foci, is located in Central Asia, in particular, the Zhambyl region in Southern Kazakhstan. Here, we conducted plague surveillance from 2000 to 2020 in the Zhambyl region in Kazakhstan and confirmed 3,072 cases of infected wild animals. We used Species Distribution Modeling by employing MaxEnt, and identified that the natural plague foci are primarily located in the Moiynqum, Betpaqdala, and Tauqum Deserts. The Zhambyl region's central part, including the Moiynqum and Sarysu districts, has a high potential risk of plague outbreak for the rural towns and villages. Since the phenomenon of climate change has been identified as a determinant that affects the rodent populations, thereby elevating the likelihood of an outbreak of plague, we investigated the potential dissemination routes of the disease under the changing climate conditions, thus creating Species Distribution Forecasts for the rodent species in southern part of Kazakhstan for the year 2100. By 2100, in case of increasing temperatures, the range of host species is likely to expand, leading to a higher risk of plague outbreaks. The highest risk of disease transmission can be expected at the outer limits of the modeled total distribution range, where infection rates are high, but antibody presence is low, making many species susceptible to the pathogen. To mitigate the risk of a potential plague outbreak, it is necessary to implement appropriate sanitary‐epidemiological measures and climate mitigation policies