Development of Casbar: a Two-phase Flow Code for the Interior Ballistics Problem

Accurate modelling of gun interior ballistic processes aids in the design and analysis of guns and their propelling charges. Presently, the most accurate modelling of the interior ballistics problem is provided by two-phase, multidimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes. We present our development of a CFD code, Casbar, which solves a two-phase (gas/particulate) flow problem in axisymmetric geometries. Our model is based on the governing equations for two-phase flow derived from separated flow theory. A finite-volume discretisation of the governing equations is used. The resulting set of equations is solved with a timestep-splitting approach based on the separation of various physical processes. We also present the modelling for the component physics such as propellant combustion and interphase drag. In addition, the solver includes the motion of the projectile and its influence on the flow dynamics. The capabilities of the code are demonstrated with some verification exercises

Pre-supernova alert system for Super-Kamiokande

In 2020, the Super-Kamiokande (SK) experiment moved to a new stage (SK-Gd) in which gadolinium (Gd) sulfate octahydrate was added to the water in the detector, enhancing the efficiency to detect thermal neutrons and consequently improving the sensitivity to low energy electron anti-neutrinos from inverse beta decay (IBD) interactions. SK-Gd has the potential to provide early alerts of incipient core-collapse supernovae through detection of electron anti-neutrinos from thermal and nuclear processes responsible for the cooling of massive stars before the gravitational collapse of their cores. These pre-supernova neutrinos emitted during the silicon burning phase can exceed the energy threshold for IBD reactions. We present the sensitivity of SK-Gd to pre-supernova stars and the techniques used for the development of a pre-supernova alarm based on the detection of these neutrinos in SK, as well as prospects for future SK-Gd phases with higher concentrations of Gd. For the current SK-Gd phase, high-confidence alerts for Betelgeuse could be issued up to 9 hr in advance of the core collapse itself

Search for proton decay via p→μ+K0 in 0.37 megaton-years exposure of Super-Kamiokande

We searched for proton decay via p→μ+K0 in 0.37  Mton⋅years of data collected between 1996 and 2018 from the Super-Kamiokande water Cherenkov experiment. The selection criteria were defined separately for K0S and K0L channels. No significant event excess has been observed. As a result of this analysis, which extends the previous search by an additional 0.2  Mton⋅years of exposure and uses an improved event reconstruction, we set a lower limit of 3.6×1033  years on the proton lifetime

Analyzing Recent Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Trends in Tunisia between 1997 and 2009.

BACKGROUND: In Tunisia, Cardiovascular Diseases are the leading causes of death (30%), 70% of those are coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths and population studies have demonstrated that major risk factor levels are increasing. OBJECTIVE: To explain recent CHD trends in Tunisia between 1997 and 2009. METHODS: DATA SOURCES: Published and unpublished data were identified by extensive searches, complemented with specifically designed surveys. ANALYSIS: Data were integrated and analyzed using the previously validated IMPACT CHD policy model. Data items included: (i)number of CHD patients in specific groups (including acute coronary syndromes, congestive heart failure and chronic angina)(ii) uptake of specific medical and surgical treatments, and(iii) population trends in major cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), diabetes and physical inactivity). RESULTS: CHD mortality rates increased by 11.8% for men and 23.8% for women, resulting in 680 additional CHD deaths in 2009 compared with the 1997 baseline, after adjusting for population change. Almost all (98%) of this rise was explained by risk factor increases, though men and women differed. A large rise in total cholesterol level in men (0.73 mmol/L) generated 440 additional deaths. In women, a fall (-0.43 mmol/L), apparently avoided about 95 deaths. For SBP a rise in men (4 mmHg) generated 270 additional deaths. In women, a 2 mmHg fall avoided 65 deaths. BMI and diabetes increased substantially resulting respectively in 105 and 75 additional deaths. Increased treatment uptake prevented about 450 deaths in 2009. The most important contributions came from secondary prevention following Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) (95 fewer deaths), initial AMI treatments (90), antihypertensive medications (80) and unstable angina (75). CONCLUSIONS: Recent trends in CHD mortality mainly reflected increases in major modifiable risk factors, notably SBP and cholesterol, BMI and diabetes. Current prevention strategies are mainly focused on treatments but should become more comprehensive

What will the cardiovascular disease slowdown cost? Modelling the impact of CVD trends on dementia, disability, and economic costs in England and Wales from 2020-2029.

To model the health impact and economic costs of the recent slowing of the historical decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence

The Fundamental Diagram of Pedestrian Movement Revisited

The empirical relation between density and velocity of pedestrian movement is not completely analyzed, particularly with regard to the `microscopic' causes which determine the relation at medium and high densities. The simplest system for the investigation of this dependency is the normal movement of pedestrians along a line (single-file movement). This article presents experimental results for this system under laboratory conditions and discusses the following observations: The data show a linear relation between the velocity and the inverse of the density, which can be regarded as the required length of one pedestrian to move. Furthermore we compare the results for the single-file movement with literature data for the movement in a plane. This comparison shows an unexpected conformance between the fundamental diagrams, indicating that lateral interference has negligible influence on the velocity-density relation at the density domain $1 m^{-2}<\rho<5 m^{-2}$. In addition we test a procedure for automatic recording of pedestrian flow characteristics. We present preliminary results on measurement range and accuracy of this method.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figure

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

OBJECTIVE: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland. METHODS: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted. RESULTS: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity

Correlations between capnographic waveforms and peak flow meter measurement in emergency department management of asthma

BACKGROUND The usual method for initial assessment of an acute asthma attack in the emergency room includes the use of peak flow measurement and clinical parameters. Both methods have their own disadvantages such as poor cooperation/effort from patients (peak flow meter) and lack of objective assessment (clinical parameters). We were looking into other methods for the initial asthma assessment, namely the use of capnography. The normal capnogram has an almost square wave pattern comprising phase 1, slope phase 2, plateau phase 3, phase 4 and angle alpha (between slopes 2 and 3). The changes in asthma include decrease in slope of phase 2, increase in slope 3 and opening of angle alpha. AIMS Our objective was to compare and assess the correlation between the changes in capnographic indices and peak flow measurement in non-intubated acute asthmatic patients attending the emergency room. METHODS We carried out a prospective study in a university hospital emergency department (ED). One hundred and twenty eight patients with acute asthma were monitored with peak flow measurements and then had a nasal cannula attached for microstream sampling of expired carbon dioxide. The capnographic waveform was recorded onto a PC card for indices analysis. The patients were treated according to departmental protocols. After treatment, when they were adjudged well for discharge, a second set of results was obtained for peak flow measurements and capnographic waveform recording. The pre-treatment and post-treatment results were then compared with paired samples t-test analysis. Simple and canonical correlations were performed to determine correlations between the assessment methods. A p value of below 0.05 was taken to be significant. RESULTS Peak flow measurements showed significant improvements post-treatment (p < 0.001). On the capnographic waveform, there was a significant difference in the slope of phase 3 (p < 0.001) and alpha angle (p < 0.001), but not in phase 2 slope (p = 0.35). Correlation studies done between the assessment methods and indices readings did not show strong correlations either between the measurements or the magnitude of change pre-treatment and post-treatment. CONCLUSION Peak flow measurements and capnographic waveform indices can indicate improvements in airway diameter in acute asthmatics in the ED. Even though the two assessment methods did not correlate statistically, capnographic waveform analysis presents several advantages in that it is effort independent and provides continuous monitoring of normal tidal respiration. They can be proposed for the monitoring of asthmatics in the ED

High energy emission from microquasars

The microquasar phenomenon is associated with the production of jets by X-ray binaries and, as such, may be associated with the majority of such systems. In this chapter we briefly outline the associations, definite, probable, possible, and speculative, between such jets and X-ray, gamma-ray and particle emission.Comment: Contributing chapter to the book Cosmic Gamma-Ray Sources, K.S. Cheng and G.E. Romero (eds.), to be published by Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 2004. (19 pages