Development of proglacial lakes and evaluation of related outburst susceptibility at the Adygine ice-debris complex, northern Tien Shan

The formation and development of glacial lakes in mountainous regions is one of the consequences of glacier recession. Such lakes may drain partially or completely when the stability of their dams is disturbed or as a consequence of impacts. We present a case study from the Central Asian mountain range of Tien Shan – a north-oriented tributary of the Adygine Valley, where the retreat of a polythermal glacier surrounded by permafrost has resulted in the formation of several generations of lakes. The aim of this study was to analyse the past development of different types of glacial lakes influenced by the same glacier, to project the site's future development, and to evaluate the outburst susceptibility of individual lakes with an outlook for expected future change. We addressed the problem using a combination of methods, namely bathymetric, geodetic and geophysical on-site surveys, satellite images and digital elevation model analysis, and modelling of glacier development. Based on this case of the glacial lakes being of varied age and type, we demonstrated the significance of glacier ice in lake development. Lake 3, which is in contact with the glacier terminus, has changed rapidly over the last decade, expanding both in area and depth and increasing its volume by more than 13 times (7800 to 106&thinsp;000&thinsp;m3). The hydrological connections and routing of glacier meltwater have proved to be an important factor as well, since most lakes in the region are drained by subsurface channels. As the site is at the boundary between continuous and discontinuous permafrost, the subsurface water flow is strongly governed by the distribution of non-frozen zones above, within, or beneath the perennially frozen ground. In the evaluation of lake outburst susceptibility, we have highlighted the importance of field data, which can provide crucial information on lake stability. In our case, an understanding of the hydrological system at the site, and its regime, helped to categorise Lake 2 as having low outburst susceptibility, while Lake 1 and Lake 3 were labelled as lakes with medium outburst susceptibility. Further development of the site will be driven mainly by rising air temperatures and increasingly negative glacier mass balance. All three climate model scenarios predicted a significant glacier areal decrease by 2050, specifically leaving 73.2&thinsp;% (A1B), 62.3&thinsp;% (A2), and 55.6&thinsp;% (B1) of the extent of the glacier in 2012. The glacier retreat will be accompanied by changes in glacier runoff, with the first peak expected around 2020, and the formation of additional lakes.</p