1 research outputs found
Predictability of Self-Organizing Systems
We study the predictability of large events in self-organizing systems. We
focus on a set of models which have been studied as analogs of earthquake
faults and fault systems, and apply methods based on techniques which are of
current interest in seismology. In all cases we find detectable correlations
between precursory smaller events and the large events we aim to forecast. We
compare predictions based on different patterns of precursory events and find
that for all of the models a new precursor based on the spatial distribution of
activity outperforms more traditional measures based on temporal variations in
the local activity.Comment: 15 pages, plain.tex with special macros included, 4 figure