EXOGENOUS PRODUCTION SHOCKS AND TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY AMONG TRADITIONAL IVORIEN RICE FARMERS

This paper uses a unique panel data set and data envelopment analysis (DEA) to obtain estimates of technical efficiency for 492 traditional rice plots in Côte d'Ivoire. The objective of this paper is to explore the importance of explicitly controlling for exogenous shocks to production in technical efficiency estimation. We show how omission of such variables in highly stochastic production environments can lead to serious inferential errors, with potentially significant policy implications. Conventional DEA estimation of a production frontier, followed by second-stage Tobit estimation of the correlates of plot- level technical efficiency, suggest widespread and substantial inefficiency related to crop fragmentation and seed varieties. However, when one controls for unobserved groupwise cross-sectional and intertemporal heterogeneity and introduces measurable exogenous shocks into the second-stage estimation, managerial characteristics become jointly insignificant and state-conditional technical efficiency becomes nearly universal. The implication is that conventional technical efficiency estimates that refute the classic Schultzian "poor but efficient" hypothesis may be incorrect because they ignore farmers' vulnerability to adverse states of nature against which they cannot insure.Africa (Sub-Saharan), Ivory Coast, production frontiers, agricultural productivity, rice., Crop Production/Industries, Productivity Analysis, O12, Q12, D2,

MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS, HUMAN CAPITAL AND PRODUCTIVE EFFICIENCY: EVIDENCE FROM WEST AFRICAN FARMERS

Little empirical work has quantified the transitory effects of macroeconomic shocks on farm-level production behavior. We develop a simple analytical model to explain how macroeconomic shocks might temporarily divert managerial attention, thereby affecting farm-level productivity, but perhaps to different degrees and for different durations across production units. We then successfully test hypotheses from that model using panel data bracketing massive currency devaluation in the west African nation of Cote d'Ivoire. We find a transitory increase in mean plot-level technical inefficiency among Ivorien rice producers and considerable variation in the magnitude and persistence of this effect, attributable largely to ex ante complexity of operations, and the educational attainment and off-farm employment status of the plot manager.Labor and Human Capital, O1, Q12, Q18,

Science Icebreaker Activities: An Example from Gravitational Wave Astronomy

At the beginning of a class or meeting an icebreaker activity is often used to help loosen the group and get everyone talking. Our motivation is to develop activities that serve the purpose of an icebreaker, but are designed to enhance and supplement a science-oriented agenda. The subject of this article is an icebreaker activity related to gravitational wave astronomy. We first describe the unique gravitational wave signals from three distinct sources: monochromatic binaries, merging compact objects, and extreme mass ratio encounters. These signals form the basis of the activity where participants work to match an ideal gravitational wave signal with noisy detector output for each type of source.Comment: Accepted to The Physics Teacher. Original manuscript divided into two papers at the request of the referee. For a related paper on gravitational wave observatories see physics/050920

A Spatio-Temporal Point Process Model for Ambulance Demand

Ambulance demand estimation at fine time and location scales is critical for fleet management and dynamic deployment. We are motivated by the problem of estimating the spatial distribution of ambulance demand in Toronto, Canada, as it changes over discrete 2-hour intervals. This large-scale dataset is sparse at the desired temporal resolutions and exhibits location-specific serial dependence, daily and weekly seasonality. We address these challenges by introducing a novel characterization of time-varying Gaussian mixture models. We fix the mixture component distributions across all time periods to overcome data sparsity and accurately describe Toronto's spatial structure, while representing the complex spatio-temporal dynamics through time-varying mixture weights. We constrain the mixture weights to capture weekly seasonality, and apply a conditionally autoregressive prior on the mixture weights of each component to represent location-specific short-term serial dependence and daily seasonality. While estimation may be performed using a fixed number of mixture components, we also extend to estimate the number of components using birth-and-death Markov chain Monte Carlo. The proposed model is shown to give higher statistical predictive accuracy and to reduce the error in predicting EMS operational performance by as much as two-thirds compared to a typical industry practice

Percolation Analysis of a Wiener Reconstruction of the IRAS 1.2 Jy Redshift Catalog

We present percolation analyses of Wiener Reconstructions of the IRAS 1.2 Jy Redshift Survey. There are ten reconstructions of galaxy density fields in real space spanning the range $\beta= 0.1$ to $1.0$, where ${\beta}={\Omega^{0.6}}/b$, $\Omega$ is the present dimensionless density and $b$ is the bias factor. Our method uses the growth of the largest cluster statistic to characterize the topology of a density field, where Gaussian randomized versions of the reconstructions are used as standards for analysis. For the reconstruction volume of radius, $R {\approx} 100 h^{-1}$ Mpc, percolation analysis reveals a slight `meatball' topology for the real space, galaxy distribution of the IRAS survey. cosmology-galaxies:clustering-methods:numericalComment: Revised version accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal, January 10, 1997 issue, Vol.47

Workshop on entrepreneurial finance: a summary

This Policy Discussion Paper summarizes papers that were presented at the Workshop on Entrepreneurial Finance, which was held March 12?13, 2009, at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Researchers presented new empirical research that exploits data sets on entrepreneurial activity that are based on broad and representative data samples. Papers in the workshop focused primarily on analyses of the sources and structure of start-up finance, including the importance of bank lending, venture capital, angel investors, and owner equity.Small business - Finance

Constraints on the distance to SGR 1806-20 from HI absorption

The giant flare detected from the magnetar SGR 1806-20 on 2004 December 27 had a fluence more than 100 times higher than the only two other SGR flares ever recorded. Whereas the fluence is independent of distance, an estimate for the luminosity of the burst depends on the source's distance, which has previously been argued to be ~15 kpc. The burst produced a bright radio afterglow, against which Cameron et al. (2005) have measured an HI absorption spectrum. This has been used to propose a revised distance to SGR 1806-20 of between 6.4 and 9.8 kpc. Here we analyze this absorption spectrum, and compare it both to HI emission data from the Southern Galactic Plane Survey and to archival 12-CO survey data. We confirm ~6 kpc, as a likely lower limit on the distance to SGR 1806-20, but argue that it is difficult to place an upper limit on the distance to SGR 1806-20 from the HI data currently available. The previous value of ~15 kpc thus remains the best estimate of the distance to the source.Comment: 3 pages, 1 embedded EPS figure. Added sentences to end of Abstract and Conclusion, clarifying that most likely distance is 15 kpc. ApJ Letters, in pres