Prognosis of acute low back pain: design of a prospective inception cohort study

BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines generally portray acute low back pain as a benign and self-limiting condition. However, evidence about the clinical course of acute low back pain is contradictory and the risk of subsequently developing chronic low back pain remains uncertain. There are few high quality prognosis studies and none that have measured pain, disability and return to work over a 12 month period. This study aims to provide the first estimates of the one year prognosis of acute low back pain (pain of less than 2 weeks duration) in patients consulting primary care practitioners. A secondary aim is to identify factors that are associated with the prognosis of low back pain. METHODS/DESIGN: The study is a prospective inception cohort study. Consecutive patients consulting general medical practitioners, physiotherapists and chiropractors in the Sydney metropolitan region will complete a baseline questionnaire regarding their back pain. Subsequently these patients will be followed up by telephone 6 weeks, 3 months and 12 months after the initial consultation. Patients will be considered to have recovered from the episode of back pain if they have no pain and no limitation of activity, and have returned to pre-injury work status. Life tables will be generated to determine the one year prognosis of acute low back pain. Prognostic factors will be assessed using Cox regression. DISCUSSION: This study will provide the first estimates of the one year prognosis of acute low back pain in a representative sample of primary care patients

Frequency and Interrelations of Risk Factors for Chronic Low Back Pain in a Primary Care Setting

INTRODUCTION: Many risk factors have been identified for chronic low back pain (cLBP), but only one study evaluated their interrelations. We aimed to investigate the frequency of cLBP risk factors and their interrelations in patients consulting their general practitioners (GPs) for cLBP. METHODS: A cross-sectional, descriptive, national survey was performed. 3000 GPs randomly selected were asked to include at least one patient consulting for cLBP. Demographic, clinical characteristics and the presence of cLBP risk factors were recorded. The frequency of each cLBP risk factor was calculated and multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) was performed to study their interrelations. RESULTS: A total of 2068 GPs (68.9%) included at least 1 patient, for 4522 questionnaires analyzed. In the whole sample of patients, the 2 risk factors most commonly observed were history of recurrent LBP (72.1%) and initial limitation of activities of daily living (66.4%). For working patients, common professional risk factors were beliefs, that LBP was due to maintaining a specific posture at work (79.0%) and frequent heavy lifting at work (65.5%). On MCA, we identified 3 risk-factor dimensions (axes) for working and nonworking patients. The main dimension for working patients involved professional risk factors and among these factors, patients' job satisfaction and job recognition largely contribute to this dimension. DISCUSSION: Our results shed in light for the first time the interrelation and the respective contribution of several previously identified cLBP risk factors. They suggest that risk factors representing a "work-related" dimension are the most important cLBP risk factors in the working population

Clinical course and prognosis of musculoskeletal pain in patients referred for physiotherapy: does pain site matter?

Background: Danish patients with musculoskeletal disorders are commonly referred for primary care physiotherapy treatment but little is known about their general health status, pain diagnoses, clinical course and prognosis. The objectives of this study were to 1) describe the clinical course of patients with musculoskeletal disorders referred to physiotherapy, 2) identify predictors associated with a satisfactory outcome, and 3) determine the influence of the primary pain site diagnosis relative to those predictors. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of patients (n = 2,706) newly referred because of musculoskeletal pain to 30 physiotherapy practices from January 2012 to May 2012. Data were collected via a web-based questionnaire 1–2 days prior to the first physiotherapy consultation and at 6 weeks, 3 and 6 months, from clinical records (including primary musculoskeletal symptom diagnosis based on the ICPC-2 classification system), and from national registry data. The main outcome was the Patient Acceptable Symptom State. Potential predictors were analysed using backwards step-wise selection during longitudinal Generalised Estimating Equation regression modelling. To assess the influence of pain site on these associations, primary pain site diagnosis was added to the model. Results: Of the patients included, 66% were female and the mean age was 48 (SD 15). The percentage of patients reporting their symptoms as acceptable was 32% at 6 weeks, 43% at 3 months and 52% at 6 months. A higher probability of satisfactory outcome was associated with place of residence, being retired, no compensation claim, less frequent pain, shorter duration of pain, lower levels of disability and fear avoidance, better mental health and being a non-smoker. Primary pain site diagnosis had little influence on these associations, and was not predictive of a satisfactory outcome. Conclusion: Only half of the patients rated their symptoms as acceptable at 6 months. Although satisfactory outcome was difficult to predict at an individual patient level, there were a number of prognostic factors that were associated with this outcome. These factors should be considered when developing generic prediction tools to assess the probability of satisfactory outcome in musculoskeletal physiotherapy patients, because the site of pain did not affect that prognostic association