Macroeconometric Modelling with a Global Perspective

This paper provides a synthesis and further development of a global modelling approach introduced in Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner (2004), where country specific models in the form of VARX* structures are estimated relating a vector of domestic variables to their foreign counterparts and then consistently combined to form a Global VAR (GVAR). It is shown that VARX* models can be derived as the solution to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model where over-identifying long-run theoretical relations can be tested and imposed if acceptable. Similarly, short-run over-identifying theoretical restrictions can be tested and imposed if accepted. The assumption of the weak exogeneity of the foreign variables for the long-run parameters can be tested, where foreign variables can be interpreted as proxies for global factors. Rather than using deviations from ad hoc statistical trends, the equilibrium values of the variables reflecting the long-run theory embodied in the model can be calculated

Investments in recessions

We argue that the strategy literature has been virtually silent on the issue of recessions, and that this constitutes a regrettable sin of omission. A key route to rectify this omission is to focus on how recessions affect investment behavior, and thereby firms stocks of assets and capabilities which ultimately will affect competitive outcomes. In the present paper we aim to contribute by analyzing how two key aspects of recessions, demand reductions and reductions in credit availability, affect three different types of investments: physical capital, R&D and innovation and human- and organizational capital. We point out that recessions not only affect the level of investment, but also the composition of investments. Some of these effects are quite counterintuitive. For example, investments in R&D are more sensitive to credit constraints than physical capital is. Investments in human capital grow as demand falls, and both R&D and human capital investments show important nonlinearities with respect to changes in demand

Can Europe recover without credit?

Data from 135 countries covering five decades suggests that creditless recoveries, in which the stock of real credit does not return to the pre-crisis level for three years after the GDP trough, are not rare and are characterised by remarkable real GDP growth rates: 4.7 percent per year in middle-income countries and 3.2 percent per year in high-income countries. However, the implications of these historical episodes for the current European situation are limited, for two main reasons. First, creditless recoveries are much less common in highincome countries, than in low-income countries which are financially undeveloped. European economies heavily depend on bank loans and research suggests that loan supply played a major role in the recent weak credit performance of Europe. There are reasons to believe that, despite various efforts, normal lending has not yet been restored. Limited loan supply could be disruptive for the European economic recovery and there has been only a minor substitution of bank loans with debt securities. Second, creditless recoveries were associated with significant real exchange rate depreciation, which has hardly occurred so far in most of Europe. This stylised fact suggests that it might be difficult to re-establish economic growth in the absence of sizeable real exchange rate depreciation, if credit growth does not return

Overtime working, the Phillips curve and the wage curve: British engineering, 1926-66

This paper shows that wage-unemployment elasticities derived from estimated wage curves and Phillips curves may be critically dependent on the measurement of wages. Incorporating hourly wage earnings, that include the influence of overtime payments, can lead to seriously distorted results. Meaningful elasticities are obtained only if hourly standard wages form the basis of analysis. Work is based on a unique data set describing two homogeneous blue-collar occupational groups - skilled fitters and unskilled labourers - in the British engineering industry. Each group is also divided into timeworkers and piece-rate workers. Data are aggregated into a panel of 28 local labour markets and cover the highly contrasting periods, 1928-1938 and 1954-1966

Sources of pro-cyclicality in east Asian financial systems

Procyclicality is a normal feature of economic systems, but financial sector weaknesses can exacerbate it sufficiently to pose a threat to macroeconomic and financial stability. These include shortcomings in bank risk management and governance, in supervision and in terms of dependence on volatile sources of funds. The paper tests econometrically for the importance of such features leading to pro-cyclicality in the financial systems of 11 East Asian countries. This analysis makes it possible to identify specific policy measures for East Asian countries that could limit the extent to which financial systems exacerbate pro-cyclicality