ESTIMATING EXPORT EQUATIONS

Accurate estimates of the price and income elasticities of exports are valuable for growth policies based on trade promotion. However, not sufficient attention seems to have been paid to the specification of the relative price variable in some influential empirical works. This paper estimates the export equation for Fiji to show that inappropriate specification of the relative price variable may give under estimates of the price elasticity and over estimates of the income elasticity.Exports, Price and Income Elasticities, Export-lead Growth Policy.

A Panel Data Approach to the Contribution of Trade to the Growth of Selected East Asian Countries

Panel data methods are used to estimate the contribution of openness of trade to the long term or the steady state rate of growth of output (SSGR) of selected East Asia countries viz., Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Hong Kong, Korea and the Philippines. Since SSGR is unobservable, its estimates are derived by estimating modified production functions and by imposing the equilibrium conditions of the Solow (1956) growth model. Panel cointegration tests showed that there is a well defined long run relation between output, trade ratio and capital. Growth accounting exercise showed that factor accumulation is the dominant contributor to the SSGR of this region. Openness of trade, however, has made a significant contribution to SSGR by 1999-2003.Panel unit root and cointegration tests, Trade Openness, Total Factor Productivity and East Asian Countries

Demand for Money in India: 1953-2003

The demand for money, especially in the developing countries, is an important relationship for formulating appropriate monetary policy and targeting monetary variables. In this paper we estimate the demand for narrow money in India and evaluate its robustness. It is found that there is a stable demand for money for almost half a century from 1953 to 2003. There is no evidence for any significant effects of the $1991$ financial reforms.Demand for money, Developing countries, Income and interest rate elasticities, Cointegration, Financial reforms.

Effects of Trade Openness on the Steady State Growth Rates of Selected Asian Countries with an Extended Exogenous Growth Model

The Solow growth model is extended with an endogenous growth framework to estimate the effects of trade openness on the steady state growth rate (SSGR). Estimates of the augmented production functions are used to compute the SSGRs for Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, India and Thailand. That good policies increase the growth effects of openness is also tested with an interactive term. Our results show that Singapore has the highest SSGR of 2.75%, followed by Hong Kong and Thailand with 2.5%. India and Malaysia have lower SSGRs of 1.7% and 0.5% respectively.Exogenous and Endogenous Growth, Trade Openness, Steady State Growth Rate, Country Specific Estimates with Time Series Data, Asian Countries

A COINTEGRATION AND ERROR CORRECTION APPROACH TO DEMAND FOR MONEY IN FIJI: 1971-2002

Demand for money is an important macroeconomic relationship. Its stability has implications for the choice of monetary policy targets. This paper estimates demand for narrow money in Fiji and evaluates its robustness and stability. It is found that there is a well determined stable demand for money in Fiji, for three decades, from 1971 to 2002 and its dynamics are adequately captured by the cointegration and error- correction models. Income and interest rate elasticities are found to be significant.Demand for money, Monetary policy, Income and interest rate elasticities, Cointegration, Error correction, Unit roots, Stability.

An extension to the neoclassical growth modelto Estimate Growth and Level Effects

The neoclassical growth model was extended by Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992) to estimate the level effects of additional factors like human capital. We suggest a further extension to capture their permanent growth effects. Time series data from Fiji are used to show that the growth effect of human capital, although small, is significant. Furthermore, in our sample the specifications with a permanent growth effect performed better than specifications with only level effects.The Solow Growth Model; Production Function; Shift Variables; Human Capital Level and Growth Effects

Effects of schooling levels on economic growth: time-series evidence from Guatemala

This paper examines the determinants of economic growth in Guatemala, with a particular focus on the schooling level. Results based on an error-correction methodology show a better educated labour force has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Consistent with micro evidence for Guatemala, primary education is more important than secondary and tertiary education. These findings are robust while changing the conditioning variables, controlling for data issues and endogeneity. Due to social and political conflict, the average per capita growth rate in Guatemala has been low.Economic growth, education, error-correction model, Guatemala

Do we need time series econometrics

Whether or not there is a need for the unit roots and cointegration based time series econometric methods is a methodological issue. An alternative is the econometrics of the London School of Economics (LSE) and Hendry approach based on the simpler classical methods of estimation. This is known as the general to specific method (GETS). Like all other methodological issues it is difficult to resolve which approach is better. However, we think that GETS is conceptually simpler and very useful in applied work.GETS, Cointegration, Box-Jenkins’s Equations, Hendry, Granger

What is the Long Run Growth Rate of the East Asian Tigers?

New panel data estimates for the four East Asian Tigers show that the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth is much higher than past estimates. An extended production function with learning by doing implies that TFP is about 3.5% and these countries will grow at this rate in the long run.Asian Tigers, Systems Dynamic GMM, Growth Accounting, Factor Accumulation as Residual.

What is the Long Run Growth Rate of the East Asian Tigers?

New panel data estimates for the four East Asian Tigers show that the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth is much higher than past estimates. An extended production function with learning by doing implies that TFP is about 3.5% and these countries will grow at this rate in the long run.Asian Tigers, Systems Dynamic GMM, Growth Accounting, Factor Accumulation as Residual