Time series estimates of the US new Keynesian Phillips curve with structural breaks

This paper uses recent US data to estimate the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) with three modifications. Firstly, the variables in the NKPC are found to be nonstationary. Therefore, it is estimated with the time series methods and the cointegrating equations are tested for structural breaks. Secondly, inflationary expectations are proxied with the survey data. Thirdly, unlike in the hybrid NKPC, the effects of the lagged inflation rates are introduced into the dynamic adjustment equations. This offers an opportunity to estimate these dynamic effects with a more general specification instead of the restricted partial adjustment mechanism underlying the hybrid NKPC. Our NKPC, with these changes, is consistent with its underlying micro foundations and forward looking expectations. The results of our NKPC can explain the dynamics of the US inflation rate as well as any other alternative model.US New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Forward looking expectations, Survey data, Wage share, Cointegration

What Caused the Decline in the US Saving Ratio?

We investigate whether the mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW) mechanism is useful for explaining the large declines in the US personal saving ratio in the last two decades. MEW depends on house price inflation and mortgage rates. In addition stock prices may affect saving ratio. Therefore, we estimate a VEC model with these four variables. The impulse response analysis shows that saving ratio decreases with positive shocks to asset prices and increases with positive shocks to mortgage rates.Saving ratio MEW VEC asset prices interest rates

From fix to fit into the autoptic human brains.

Formalin-fixed, paraffinembedded (FFPE) human brain tissues are very often stored in formalin for long time. Formalin fixation reduces immunostaining, and the DNA/RNA extraction from FFPE brain tissue becomes suboptimal. At present, there are different protocols of fixation and several procedures and kits to extract DNA/RNA from paraffin embedding tissue, but a gold standard protocol remains distant. In this study, we analyzed four types of fixation systems and compared histo and immuno-staining. Based on our results, we propose a modified method of combined fixation in formalin and formic acid for the autoptic adult brain to obtain easy, fast, safe and efficient immunolabelling of long-stored FFPE tissue. In particular, we have achieved an improved preservation of cellular morphology and obtained success in postmortem immunostaining for NeuN. This nuclear antigen is an important marker for mapping neurons, for example, to evaluate the histopathology of temporal lobe epilepsy or to draw the topography of cardiorespiratory brainstem nuclei in sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS). However, NeuN staining is frequently faint or lost in postmortem human brain tissues. In addition, we attained Fluoro Jade C staining, a marker of neurodegeneration, and immunofluorescent staining for stem cell antigens in the postnatal human brain, utilizing custom fit fixation procedures

Estimates of the demand for US consumer borrowings

This paper explains non-mortgage borrowing by U.S. households with demand-side factors, viz. disposable income, wealth and interest rate. The life cycle hypothesis and a standard two period consumption model are the basis of our theoretical model. We find with the cointegration techniques that current disposable income, past wealth, and interest rate explain consumer borrowing over 50 years.consumer borrowing, disposable income, wealth, interest rates, US economy

Flattening of the Phillips Curve and the Role of Oil Price: An Unobserved Components Model for the USA and Australia

We use the unobserved components model of Harvey (1989 and 2011) to estimate the Phillips curve (PC) for the USA and Australia, by augmenting it with oil prices. We found that the level coefficient of inflation and the coefficient of demand pressure have declined and contributed to the flattening of the Phillips curve. But the coefficient of oil prices has increased and has partly offset these effects. Therefore, oil prices are likely to play a significant role in future inflation rates.Unobserved components, Harvey, USA, Australia, Flattening of the Phillips curve and Oil prices

HCU400: An Annotated Dataset for Exploring Aural Phenomenology Through Causal Uncertainty

The way we perceive a sound depends on many aspects-- its ecological frequency, acoustic features, typicality, and most notably, its identified source. In this paper, we present the HCU400: a dataset of 402 sounds ranging from easily identifiable everyday sounds to intentionally obscured artificial ones. It aims to lower the barrier for the study of aural phenomenology as the largest available audio dataset to include an analysis of causal attribution. Each sample has been annotated with crowd-sourced descriptions, as well as familiarity, imageability, arousal, and valence ratings. We extend existing calculations of causal uncertainty, automating and generalizing them with word embeddings. Upon analysis we find that individuals will provide less polarized emotion ratings as a sound's source becomes increasingly ambiguous; individual ratings of familiarity and imageability, on the other hand, diverge as uncertainty increases despite a clear negative trend on average

The dynamics of French public debt: Paths for fiscal consolidations

We analyze possible targets for the French debt-to-GDP ratio with a small model. The role of the US and German GDP growth, prices of raw materials, ECB monetary policy, and domestic policy is analyzed in the debt dynamics. We find that external conditions, together with policies to stimulate growth and to generate a government surplus, play a fundamental role in the French fiscal consolidation.Debt to GDP Ratio, French Economy, International Factors

Time Series Estimates of the Italian Consumer Confidence Indicator

This work shows that Italian consumer confidence indicator (CCI) is non-stationary and, therefore, can be estimated with the time series methods. It is found that a long-run relationship exists between CCI, short-term interest rate, industrial production index and the difference between perceived and measured inflation. The use of time series methods to estimate CCI for Italy is a novelty in the literature.Consumer confidence indicator, Short-term interest rate, Perceived rate of inflation, Cointegration.

The dynamics of Spanish public debt and sustainable paths for fiscal consolidation

This paper analyses possible patterns for the Spain debt-to-GDP ratio with a small macroeconomic model. The role of international macroeconomic variables (such as the US and French GDP growth rates, prices of raw materials, ECB monetary policy stance) and domestic policy instruments is analyzed in the debt dynamics. We find that external conditions, together with policies aimed to stimulate the growth and fulfilling Maastricht restrictions on deficit, play a fundamental role for fiscal consolidation in Spain and help to reach a sustainable pattern.Debt to GDP Ratio, Spain Economy, International Factors, SUR