Demographic profiles and environmental drivers of variation relate to individual breeding state in a long-lived trans-oceanic migratory seabird, the Manx shearwater

Understanding the points in a species breeding cycle when they are most vulnerable to environmental fluctuations is key to understanding interannual demography and guiding effective conservation and management. Seabirds represent one of the most threatened groups of birds in the world, and climate change and severe weather is a prominent and increasing threat to this group. We used a multi-state capture-recapture model to examine how the demographic rates of a long-lived trans-oceanic migrant seabird, the Manx shearwater Puffinus puffinus, are influenced by environmental conditions experienced at different stages of the annual breeding cycle and whether these relationships vary with an individual's breeding state in the previous year (i.e., successful breeder, failed breeder and non-breeder). Our results imply that populations of Manx shearwaters are comprised of individuals with different demographic profiles, whereby more successful reproduction is associated with higher rates of survival and breeding propensity. However, we found that all birds experienced the same negative relationship between rates of survival and wind force during the breeding season, indicating a cost of reproduction (or central place constraint for non-breeders) during years with severe weather conditions. We also found that environmental effects differentially influence the breeding propensity of individuals in different breeding states. This suggests individual spatio-temporal variation in habitat use during the annual cycle, such that climate change could alter the frequency that individuals with different demographic profiles breed thereby driving a complex and less predictable population response. More broadly, our study highlights the importance of considering individual-level factors when examining population demography and predicting how species may respond to climate change

Integrating evolution into ecological modelling: accommodating phenotypic changes in agent based models.

PMCID: PMC3733718This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a 'phenotypic gambit' approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in timing of breeding and fecundity) within a population, using, as an example, seasonal breeding. Fitness per phenotype calculated as the individual's contribution to population growth on an annual basis coincide with the population dynamics per phenotype. Simplified model variants were explored to examine whether the complexity included in the model is justified. Outputs from the spatially implicit model underestimated the number of individuals across all phenotypes. When no phenotype transitions are included (i.e. offspring always inherit their parent's phenotype) numbers of all individuals are always underestimated. We conclude that by using a phenotypic gambit approach evolutionary dynamics can be incorporated into individual based models, and that all that is required is an understanding of the probability of offspring inheriting the parental phenotype

An absolute sodium abundance for a cloud-free 'hot Saturn' exoplanet.

Broad absorption signatures from alkali metals, such as the sodium (Na I) and potassium (K I) resonance doublets, have long been predicted in the optical atmospheric spectra of cloud-free irradiated gas giant exoplanets1-3. However, observations have revealed only the narrow cores of these features rather than the full pressure-broadened profiles4-6. Cloud and haze opacity at the day-night planetary terminator are considered to be responsible for obscuring the absorption-line wings, which hinders constraints on absolute atmospheric abundances7-9. Here we report an optical transmission spectrum for the 'hot Saturn' exoplanet WASP-96b obtained with the Very Large Telescope, which exhibits the complete pressure-broadened profile of the sodium absorption feature. The spectrum is in excellent agreement with cloud-free, solar-abundance models assuming chemical equilibrium. We are able to measure a precise, absolute sodium abundance of logεNa = [Formula: see text], and use it as a proxy for the planet's atmospheric metallicity relative to the solar value (Zp/Zʘ = [Formula: see text]). This result is consistent with the mass-metallicity trend observed for Solar System planets and exoplanets10-12

Mapping Robots to Therapy and Educational Objectives for Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

The aim of this study was to increase knowledge on therapy and educational objectives professionals work on with children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and to identify corresponding state of the art robots. Focus group sessions (n = 9) with ASD professionals (n = 53) from nine organisations were carried out to create an objectives overview, followed by a systematic literature study to identify state of the art robots matching these objectives. Professionals identified many ASD objectives (n = 74) in 9 different domains. State of the art robots addressed 24 of these objectives in 8 domains. Robots can potentially be applied to a large scope of objectives for children with ASD. This objectives overview functions as a base to guide development of robot interventions for these children

Mesopredator Release by an Emergent Superpredator: A Natural Experiment of Predation in a Three Level Guild

Chakarov N, Krüger O. Mesopredator Release by an Emergent Superpredator: A Natural Experiment of Predation in a Three Level Guild. PLoS ONE. 2010;5(12): e15229.Background: Intraguild predation (IGP) is widespread but it is often neglected that guilds commonly include many layers of dominance within. This could obscure the effects of IGP making unclear whether the intermediate or the bottom mesopredator will bear higher costs from the emergence of a new top predator. Methodology/Principal Findings: In one of the most extensive datasets of avian IGP, we analyse the impact of recolonization of a superpredator, the eagle owl Bubo bubo on breeding success, territorial dynamics and population densities of two mesopredators, the northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis and its IG prey, the common buzzard Buteo buteo. The data covers more than two decades and encompass three adjacent plots. Eagle owls only recolonized the central plot during the second decade, thereby providing a natural experiment. Both species showed a decrease in standardized reproductive success and an increase in brood failure within 1.5 km of the superpredator. During the second decade, territory dynamics of goshawks was significantly higher in the central plot compared to both other plots. No such pattern existed in buzzards. Goshawk density in the second decade decreased in the central plot, while it increased in both other plots. Buzzard density in the second decade rapidly increased in the north, remained unchanged in the south and increased moderately in the center in a probable case of mesopredator release. Conclusions/Significance: Our study finds support for top-down control on the intermediate mesopredator and both top-down and bottom-up control of the bottom mesopredator. In the face of considerable costs of IGP, both species probably compete to breed in predator-free refugia, which get mostly occupied by the dominant raptor. Therefore for mesopredators the outcome of IGP might depend directly on the number of dominance levels which supersede them

The Environmental Dependence of Inbreeding Depression in a Wild Bird Population

BACKGROUND: Inbreeding depression occurs when the offspring produced as a result of matings between relatives show reduced fitness, and is generally understood as a consequence of the elevated expression of deleterious recessive alleles. How inbreeding depression varies across environments is of importance for the evolution of inbreeding avoidance behaviour, and for understanding extinction risks in small populations. However, inbreeding-by-environment (IxE) interactions have rarely been investigated in wild populations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We analysed 41 years of breeding events from a wild great tit (Parus major) population and used 11 measures of the environment to categorise environments as relatively good or poor, testing whether these measures influenced inbreeding depression. Although inbreeding always, and environmental quality often, significantly affected reproductive success, there was little evidence for statistically significant I x E interactions at the level of individual analyses. However, point estimates of the effect of the environment on inbreeding depression were sometimes considerable, and we show that variation in the magnitude of the I x E interaction across environments is consistent with the expectation that this interaction is more marked across environmental axes with a closer link to overall fitness, with the environmental dependence of inbreeding depression being elevated under such conditions. Hence, our analyses provide evidence for an environmental dependence of the inbreeding x environment interaction: effectively an I x E x E. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Overall, our analyses suggest that I x E interactions may be substantial in wild populations, when measured across relevant environmental contrasts, although their detection for single traits may require very large samples, or high rates of inbreeding

Genetic modifiers in rare disorders: the case of fragile X syndrome.

Methods employed in genome-wide association studies are not feasible ways to explore genotype-phenotype associations in rare disorders due to limited statistical power. An alternative approach is to examine relationships among specific single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), selected a priori, and behavioural characteristics. Here, we adopt this strategy to examine relationships between three SNPs (5-HTTLPR, MAOA, COMT) and specific clinically-relevant behaviours that are phenotypic of fragile X syndrome (FXS) but vary in severity and frequency across individuals. Sixty-four males with FXS participated in the current study. Data from standardised informant measures of challenging behaviour (defined as physical aggression, property destruction, stereotyped behaviour, and self-injury), autism symptomatology, attention-deficit-hyperactivity-disorder characteristics, repetitive behaviour and mood/interest and pleasure were compared between each SNP genotype. No association was observed between behavioural characteristics and either 5-HTTLPR (serotonin) or MAOA (monoamine oxidase) genotypes. However, compared to the COMT (dopamine) AG and GG genotypes, the AA genotype was associated with greater interest and pleasure in the environment, and with reduced risk for property destruction, stereotyped behaviour and compulsive behaviour. The results suggest that common genetic variation in the COMT genotype affecting dopamine levels in the brain may contribute to the variability of challenging and repetitive behaviours and interest and pleasure in this population. This study identifies a role for additional genetic risk in understanding the neural and genetic mechanisms contributing to phenotypic variability in neurodevelopmental disorders, and highlights the merit of investigating SNPs that are selected a priori on a theoretical basis in rare populations

The 40 pc sample of white dwarfs from Gaia

We present a comprehensive overview of a volume-complete sample of white dwarfs located within 40 pc of the Sun, a significant proportion of which were detected in Gaia Data Release 3 (DR3). Our DR3 sample contains 1076 spectroscopically confirmed white dwarfs, with just five candidates within the volume remaining unconfirmed (> 99 per cent spectroscopic completeness). Additionally, 28 white dwarfs were not in our initial selection from Gaia DR3, most of which are in unresolved binaries. We use Gaia DR3 photometry and astrometry to determine a uniform set of white dwarf parameters, including mass, effective temperature, and cooling age. We assess the demographics of the 40 pc sample, specifically magnetic fields, binarity, space density, and mass distributions

Recent Shift in Climate Relationship Enables Prediction of the Timing of Bird Breeding

Large-scale climate processes influence many aspects of ecology including breeding phenology, reproductive success and survival across a wide range of taxa. Some effects are direct, for example, in temperate-zone birds, ambient temperature is an important cue enabling breeding effort to coincide with maximum food availability, and earlier breeding in response to warmer springs has been documented in many species. In other cases, time-lags of up to several years in ecological responses have been reported, with effects mediated through biotic mechanisms such as growth rates or abundance of food supplies. Here we use 23 years of data for a temperate woodland bird species, the great tit (Parus major), breeding in deciduous woodland in eastern England to demonstrate a time-lagged linear relationship between the on-set of egg laying and the winter index of the North Atlantic Oscillation such that timing can be predicted from the winter index for the previous year. Thus the timing of bird breeding (and, by inference, the timing of spring events in general) can be predicted one year in advance. We also show that the relationship with the winter index appears to arise through an abiotic time-lag with local spring warmth in our study area. Examining this link between local conditions and larger-scale processes in the longer-term showed that, in the past, significant relationships with the immediately preceding winter index were more common than those with the time-lagged index, and especially so from the late 1930s to the early 1970s. However, from the mid 1970s onwards, the time-lagged relationship has become the most significant, suggesting a recent change in climate patterns. The strength of the current time-lagged relationship suggests that it might have relevance for other temperature-dependent ecological relationships

Moving Just Like You: Motor Interference Depends on Similar Motility of Agent and Observer

Recent findings in neuroscience suggest an overlap between brain regions involved in the execution of movement and perception of another’s movement. This so-called “action-perception coupling” is supposed to serve our ability to automatically infer the goals and intentions of others by internal simulation of their actions. A consequence of this coupling is motor interference (MI), the effect of movement observation on the trajectory of one’s own movement. Previous studies emphasized that various features of the observed agent determine the degree of MI, but could not clarify how human-like an agent has to be for its movements to elicit MI and, more importantly, what ‘human-like’ means in the context of MI. Thus, we investigated in several experiments how different aspects of appearance and motility of the observed agent influence motor interference (MI). Participants performed arm movements in horizontal and vertical directions while observing videos of a human, a humanoid robot, or an industrial robot arm with either artificial (industrial) or human-like joint configurations. Our results show that, given a human-like joint configuration, MI was elicited by observing arm movements of both humanoid and industrial robots. However, if the joint configuration of the robot did not resemble that of the human arm, MI could longer be demonstrated. Our findings present evidence for the importance of human-like joint configuration rather than other human-like features for perception-action coupling when observing inanimate agents