Changing minds: Children's inferences about third party belief revision

By the age of 5, children explicitly represent that agents can have both true and false beliefs based on epistemic access to information (e.g., Wellman, Cross, & Watson, 2001). Children also begin to understand that agents can view identical evidence and draw different inferences from it (e.g., Carpendale & Chandler, 1996). However, much less is known about when, and under what conditions, children expect other agents to change their minds. Here, inspired by formal ideal observer models of learning, we investigate children's expectations of the dynamics that underlie third parties' belief revision. We introduce an agent who has prior beliefs about the location of a population of toys and then observes evidence that, from an ideal observer perspective, either does, or does not justify revising those beliefs. We show that children's inferences on behalf of third parties are consistent with the ideal observer perspective, but not with a number of alternative possibilities, including that children expect other agents to be influenced only by their prior beliefs, only by the sampling process, or only by the observed data. Rather, children integrate all three factors in determining how and when agents will update their beliefs from evidence.National Science Foundation (U.S.). Division of Computing and Communication Foundations (1231216)National Science Foundation (U.S.). Division of Research on Learning in Formal and Informal Settings (0744213)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (STC Center for Brains, Minds and Machines Award CCF-1231216)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (0744213

Changing minds: Children’s inferences about third party belief revision

By the age of 5, children explicitly represent that agents can have both true and false beliefs based on epistemic access to information (e.g., Wellman, Cross, & Watson, 2001). Children also begin to understand that agents can view identical evidence and draw different inferences from it (e.g., Carpendale & Chandler, 1996). However, much less is known about when, and under what conditions, children expect other agents to change their minds. Here, inspired by formal ideal observer models of learning, we investigate children’s expectations of the dynamics that underlie third parties’ belief revision. We introduce an agent who has prior beliefs about the location of a population of toys and then observes evidence that, from an ideal observer perspective, either does, or does not justify revising those beliefs. We show that children’s inferences on behalf of third parties are consistent with the ideal observer perspective, but not with a number of alternative possibilities, including that children expect other agents to be influenced only by their prior beliefs, only by the sampling process, or only by the observed data. Rather, children integrate all three factors in determining how and when agents will update their beliefs from evidence.Young children use others’ prior beliefs and data to predict when third parties will retain their beliefs and when they will change their minds.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142970/1/desc12553_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142970/2/desc12553.pd

Rapid estimation of sugar release from winter wheat straw during bioethanol production using FTIR-photoacoustic spectroscopy

BACKGROUND: Complexity and high cost are the main limitations for high-throughput screening methods for the estimation of the sugar release from plant materials during bioethanol production. In addition, it is important that we improve our understanding of the mechanisms by which different chemical components are affecting the degradability of plant material. In this study, Fourier transform infrared photoacoustic spectroscopy (FTIR-PAS) was combined with advanced chemometrics to develop calibration models predicting the amount of sugars released after pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis of wheat straw during bioethanol production, and the spectra were analysed to identify components associated with recalcitrance. RESULTS: A total of 1122 wheat straw samples from nine different locations in Denmark and one location in the United Kingdom, spanning a large variation in genetic material and environmental conditions during growth, were analysed. The FTIR-PAS spectra of non-pretreated wheat straw were correlated with the measured sugar release, determined by a high-throughput pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis (HTPH) assay. A partial least square regression (PLSR) calibration model predicting the glucose and xylose release was developed. The interpretation of the regression coefficients revealed a positive correlation between the released glucose and xylose with easily hydrolysable compounds, such as amorphous cellulose and hemicellulose. Additionally, a negative correlation with crystalline cellulose and lignin, which inhibits cellulose and hemicellulose hydrolysis, was observed. CONCLUSIONS: FTIR-PAS was used as a reliable method for the rapid estimation of sugar release during bioethanol production. The spectra revealed that lignin inhibited the hydrolysis of polysaccharides into monomers, while the crystallinity of cellulose retarded its hydrolysis into glucose. Amorphous cellulose and xylans were found to contribute significantly to the released amounts of glucose and xylose, respectively. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13068-015-0267-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

The association between care co-ordination and emergency department use in older managed care enrollees

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between care co-ordination and use of the Emergency Department (ED) in older managed care enrollees. DESIGN: Nested case-control with 103 cases (used the ED) and 194 controls (did not use the ED). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Older patients with multiple chronic illnesses enrolled in a care management programme of a large group-model health maintenance organisation with more than 50,000 members over the age of 64. Better care co-ordination was defined as timely follow-up after a change in treatment; fewer decision-makers involved with the care plan; and a higher patient-perceived rating of overall care co-ordination. Logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between ED use (the outcome variable) and measures of care co-ordination (the predictor variables). RESULTS: Self-reported care co-ordination was not significantly different between cases and controls for any of the four classifications of inappropriate ED use. Similarly, no differences were found in the number of different physicians or medication prescribers involved in the patients' care. Four-week follow-up after potentially high-risk events for subsequent ED use, including changes in chronic disease medications, missed encounters, and same day encounters, did not differ between subjects with inappropriate ED use and controls. CONCLUSION: Existing measures of care co-ordination were not associated with inappropriate ED use in this study of older adults with complex care needs. The absence of an association may, in part, be attributable to the paucity of validated measures to assess care co-ordination, as well as the methodological complexity inherent in studying this topic. Future research should focus on the development of new measures and on approaches that better isolate the role of care co-ordination from other potential variables that influence utilisation

Stark Effect of Interactive Electron-hole pairs in Spherical Semiconductor Quantum Dots

We present a theoretical variational approach, based on the effective mass approximation (EMA), to study the quantum-confinement Stark effects for spherical semiconducting quantum dots in the strong confinement regime of interactive electron-hole pair and limiting weak electric field. The respective roles of the Coulomb potential and the polarization energy are investigated in details. Under reasonable physical assumptions, analytical calculations can be performed. They clearly indicate that the Stark shift is a quadratic function of the electric field amplitude in the regime of study. The resulting numerical values are found to be in good agreement with experimental data over a significant domain of validity

Do contaminants compromise the use of recycled nutrients in organic agriculture? A review and synthesis of current knowledge on contaminant concentrations, fate in the environment and risk assessment

Use of nutrients recycled from societal waste streams in agriculture is part of the circular economy, and in line with organic farming principles. Nevertheless, diverse contaminants in waste streams create doubts among organic farmers about potential risks for soil health. Here, we gather the current knowledge on contaminant levels in waste streams and recycled nutrient sources, and discuss associated risks. For potentially toxic elements (PTEs), the input of zinc (Zn) and copper (Cu) from mineral feed supplements remains of concern, while concentrations of PTEs in many waste streams have decreased substantially in Europe. The same applies to organic contaminants, although new chemical groups such as flame retardants are of emerging concern and globally contamination levels differ strongly. Compared to inorganic fertilizers, application of organic fertilizers derived from human or animal feces is associated with an increased risk for environmental dissemination of antibiotic resistance. The risk depends on the quality of the organic fertilizers, which varies between geographical regions, but farmland application of sewage sludge appears to be a safe practice as shown by some studies (e.g. from Sweden). Microplastic concentrations in agricultural soils show a wide spread and our understanding of its toxicity is limited, hampering a sound risk assessment. Methods for assessing public health risks for organic contaminants must include emerging contaminants and potential interactions of multiple compounds. Evidence from long-term field experiments suggests that soils may be more resilient and capable to degrade or stabilize pollutants than often assumed. In view of the need to source nutrients for expanding areas under organic farming, we discuss inputs originating from conventional farms vs. non-agricultural (i.e. societal) inputs. Closing nutrient cycles between agriculture and society is feasible in many cases, without being compromised by contaminants, and should be enhanced, aided by improved source control, waste treatment and sound risk assessments

Replacement of Contentious Inputs in Organic Farming Systems (RELACS) – a comprehensive Horizon 2020 project

Organic farmers adhere to high standards in producing quality food while protecting the environment. However, organic farming needs to improve continuously to keep meeting its ambitious objectives. The project ‘Replacement of Contentious Inputs in Organic Farming Systems’ (RELACS) will foster the development and adoption of cost-efficient and environmentally safe tools and technologies to further reduce the use of external inputs on organic farms across Europe as well as in Non EU Mediterranean countries. Project partners will provide scientific support to develop fair and implementable EU rules to improve current practices in organic farming. Farm advisory networks in 11 European countries will reach out to farmers to ensure effective dissemination and adoption of the tools and techniques

Timelike surfaces of constant mean curvature 1 in anti-de Sitter 3-space

It is shown that timelike surfaces of constant mean curvature 1 in anti-de Sitter 3-space can be constructed from a pair of Lorentz holomorphic and Lorentz antiholomorphic null curves in PSL(2,R) via Bryant type representation formulae. These formulae are used to investigate an explicit one-to-one correspondence, the so-called Lawson correspondence, between timelike surfaces of constant mean curvature 1 in anti-de Sitter 3-space and timelike minimal surfaces in Minkowski 3-space. The hyperbolic Gauss map of timelike surfaces in anti-de Sitter 3-space, which is a close analogue of the classical Gauss map is considered. It is discussed that the hyperbolic Gauss map plays an important role in the study of timelike surfaces of constant mean curvature 1 in anti-de Sitter 3-space. In particular, the relationship between the Lorentz holomorphicity of the hyperbolic Gauss map and timelike surfaces of constant mean curvature 1 in anti-de Sitter 3-space is studied.Comment: 47 pages, 24 figures, references revised, Annals of Global Analysis and Geometr

Use of Risk Models to Predict Death in the Next Year Among Individual Ambulatory Patients With Heart Failure

Importance: The clinical practice guidelines for heart failure recommend the use of validated risk models to estimate prognosis. Understanding how well models identify individuals who will die in the next year informs decision making for advanced treatments and hospice. Objective: To quantify how risk models calculated in routine practice estimate more than 50% 1-year mortality among ambulatory patients with heart failure who die in the subsequent year. Design, Setting, and Participants: Ambulatory adults with heart failure from 3 integrated health systems were enrolled between 2005 and 2008. The probability of death was estimated using the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) and the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) risk calculator. Baseline covariates were collected from electronic health records. Missing covariates were imputed. Estimated mortality was compared with actual mortality at both population and individual levels. Main Outcomes and Measures: One-year mortality. Results: Among 10930 patients with heart failure, the median age was 77 years, and 48.0% of these patients were female. In the year after study enrollment, 1661 patients died (15.9% by life-table analysis). At the population level, 1-year predicted mortality among the cohort was 9.7% for the SHFM (C statistic of 0.66) and 17.5% for the MAGGIC risk calculator (C statistic of 0.69). At the individual level, the SHFM predicted a more than 50% probability of dying in the next year for 8 of the 1661 patients who died (sensitivity for 1-year death was 0.5%) and for 5 patients who lived at least a year (positive predictive value, 61.5%). The MAGGIC risk calculator predicted a more than 50% probability of dying in the next year for 52 of the 1661 patients who died (sensitivity, 3.1%) and for 63 patients who lived at least a year (positive predictive value, 45.2%). Conversely, the SHFM estimated that 8496 patients (77.8%) had a less than 15% probability of dying at 1 year, yet this lower-risk end of the score range captured nearly two-thirds of deaths (n = 997); similarly, the MAGGIC risk calculator estimated a probability of dying of less than 25% for the majority of patients who died at 1 year (n = 914). Conclusions and Relevance: Although heart failure risk models perform reasonably well at the population level, they do not reliably predict which individual patients will die in the next year