Forecasting the Yield Curve for the Euro Region

This paper compares the forecast precision of the Functional Signal plus Noise (FSN), the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DL), and a random walk model. The empirical results suggest that both outperform the random walk at short horizons (one-month) and that the the FSN model outperforms the DL at the one-month forecasting horizon. The conclusions provided in this paper are important for policy makers, fixed income portfolio managers, financial institutions and academics.

Myopic Loss Aversion and House-Money Effect Overseas: an experimental approach

Recent literature has found two behavioral effects - house-money and myopic loss aversion (MLA) - in several experimental designs. We show that although we can find a house-money effect using survey methods this evidence disappears when we study investment decision within a multi-period investment experiment. Loss aversion is found to govern the risk-taking behavior of subjects in dynamic settings, overcoming the house-money effect. These results are robust to experiments conducted in two different countries, Spain and Brazil.

Fast-ignition design transport studies: realistic electron source, integrated PIC-hydrodynamics, imposed magnetic fields

Transport modeling of idealized, cone-guided fast ignition targets indicates the severe challenge posed by fast-electron source divergence. The hybrid particle-in-cell [PIC] code Zuma is run in tandem with the radiation-hydrodynamics code Hydra to model fast-electron propagation, fuel heating, and thermonuclear burn. The fast electron source is based on a 3D explicit-PIC laser-plasma simulation with the PSC code. This shows a quasi two-temperature energy spectrum, and a divergent angle spectrum (average velocity-space polar angle of 52 degrees). Transport simulations with the PIC-based divergence do not ignite for > 1 MJ of fast-electron energy, for a modest 70 micron standoff distance from fast-electron injection to the dense fuel. However, artificially collimating the source gives an ignition energy of 132 kJ. To mitigate the divergence, we consider imposed axial magnetic fields. Uniform fields ~50 MG are sufficient to recover the artificially collimated ignition energy. Experiments at the Omega laser facility have generated fields of this magnitude by imploding a capsule in seed fields of 50-100 kG. Such imploded fields are however more compressed in the transport region than in the laser absorption region. When fast electrons encounter increasing field strength, magnetic mirroring can reflect a substantial fraction of them and reduce coupling to the fuel. A hollow magnetic pipe, which peaks at a finite radius, is presented as one field configuration which circumvents mirroring.Comment: 16 pages, 17 figures, submitted to Phys. Plasma

Concentração e Inadimplência nas Carteiras de Empréstimos dos Bancos Brasileiros

This paper evaluates the loans market in Brazil in the 2003 to 2008 period. It measures diversification and nonperforming loans for Banks credit portfolios. We employ the credit risk bureau database, which classifies loans by sector and risk. Results show an increase in higher risk loans and diversification in low risk loans. The non-performing loans figures have shown a downward trend for most economic activities.

O Comportamento Cíclico do Capital dos Bancos Brasileiros

In the context of the implementation of the Basel II accord, this paper analyzes the cyclical behavior of Brazilian bank capital under the current regulation. We use an unbalanced panel data of banks operating in Brazil between 2003 and 2008 to estimate an equation of the bank economic capital. Our results show that this variable moves with the business cycle.

Multi-filament structures in relativistic self-focusing

A simple model is derived to prove the multi-filament structure of relativistic self-focusing with ultra-intense lasers. Exact analytical solutions describing the transverse structure of waveguide channels with electron cavitation, for which both the relativistic and ponderomotive nonlinearities are taken into account, are presented.Comment: 21 pages, 12 figures, submitted to Physical Review

Zettawatt-Exawatt Lasers and Their Applications in Ultrastrong-Field Physics: High Energy Front

Since its birth, the laser has been extraordinarily effective in the study and applications of laser-matter interaction at the atomic and molecular level and in the nonlinear optics of the bound electron. In its early life, the laser was associated with the physics of electron volts and of the chemical bond. Over the past fifteen years, however, we have seen a surge in our ability to produce high intensities, five to six orders of magnitude higher than was possible before. At these intensities, particles, electrons and protons, acquire kinetic energy in the mega-electron-volt range through interaction with intense laser fields. This opens a new age for the laser, the age of nonlinear relativistic optics coupling even with nuclear physics. We suggest a path to reach an extremely high-intensity level $10^{26-28}$W/cm$^2$ in the coming decade, much beyond the current and near future intensity regime $10^{23}$W/cm$^2$, taking advantage of the megajoule laser facilities. Such a laser at extreme high intensity could accelerate particles to frontiers of high energy, tera-electron-volt and peta-electron-volt, and would become a tool of fundamental physics encompassing particle physics, gravitational physics, nonlinear field theory, ultrahigh-pressure physics, astrophysics, and cosmology. We focus our attention on high-energy applications in particular and the possibility of merged reinforcement of high-energy physics and ultraintense laser.Comment: 25 pages. 1 figur

Relativistic ponderomotive force, uphill acceleration, and transition to chaos

Starting from a covariant cycle-averaged Lagrangian the relativistic oscillation center equation of motion of a point charge is deduced and analytical formulae for the ponderomotive force in a travelling wave of arbitrary strength are presented. It is further shown that the ponderomotive forces for transverse and longitudinal waves are different; in the latter, uphill acceleration can occur. In a standing wave there exists a threshold intensity above which, owing to transition to chaos, the secular motion can no longer be described by a regular ponderomotive force. PACS number(s): 52.20.Dq,05.45.+b,52.35.Mw,52.60.+hComment: 8 pages, RevTeX, 3 figures in PostScript, see also http://www.physik.th-darmstadt.de/tqe

Electromagnetic energy penetration in the self-induced transparency regime of relativistic laser-plasma interactions

Two scenarios for the penetration of relativistically intense laser radiation into an overdense plasma, accessible by self-induced transparency, are presented. For supercritical densities less than 1.5 times the critical one, penetration of laser energy occurs by soliton-like structures moving into the plasma. At higher background densities laser light penetrates over a finite length only, that increases with the incident intensity. In this regime plasma-field structures represent alternating electron layers separated by about half a wavelength by depleted regions.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, submitted for publication to PR