Equity Yields

We study a new data set of prices of traded dividends with maturities up to 10 years across three world regions: the US, Europe, and Japan. We use these asset prices to construct equity yields, analogous to bond yields. We decompose these yields to obtain a term structure of expected dividend growth rates and a term structure of risk premia, which allows us to decompose the equity risk premium by maturity. We find that both expected dividend growth rates and risk premia exhibit substantial variation over time, particularly for short maturities. In addition to predicting dividend growth, equity yields help predict other measures of economic growth such as consumption growth. We relate the dynamics of growth expectations to recent events such as the financial crisis and the earthquake in Japan.

Preservation of blood volume during edema removal in nephrotic subjects

Preservation of blood volume during edema removal in nephrotic subjects. During the gradual removal of edema with diuretics in 21 edematous patients with the nephrotic syndrome (NS) we monitored blood volume. For comparison, nine healthy subjects were studied after equilibration on diets containing 20, 200, and 1138mEq sodium. The initial extracellular fluid volume (ECFV) in the patients exceeded the final ECFV by 63.4 ± 8.4%. In 10 patients with a very low plasma oncotic pressure (8.2 ± 0.4mm Hg, Group 1), the blood volume changed little. In Group 2 (plasma oncotic pressure 13.4 ± 1.0mm Hg), it was 11.0 ± 2.5% higher at entry than after edema withdrawal. In the normal volunteers, the highest sodium intake raised the ECFV by 21.4 ± 4.1%. The accompanying rise in blood volume, 11.2 ± 3.0%, was larger than in the patients of Group 1 (2.4 ± 1.9%, P < 0.04), but not of Group 2 (8.1 ± 1.9%, NS) at similar degrees of expansion. There was no difference in blood volume between the edema-free patients and the normal subjects at low-sodium diet. The course of blood pressure and creatinine clearance during edema removal gave no evidence that functional hypovolemia was induced, but the plasma renin activity was higher than in the normal subjects at similar degrees of expansion. We conclude that the blood volume to ECFV relationship curve is flattened in the presence of hypoalbuminemia. Thus, the increase in blood volume that normally follows ECFV expansion is less in patients with the NS, but a drop below normal upon removal of edema is absent also

Discrete organic phosphorus signatures are evident in pollutant sources within a Lake Erie tributary

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2018. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here under a nonexclusive, irrevocable, paid-up, worldwide license granted to WHOI. It is made available for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Environmental Science and Technology 52 (2018): 6771-6779, doi:10.1021/acs.est.7b05703.Phosphorus loads are strongly associated with the severity of harmful algal blooms in Lake Erie, a Great Lake situated between the United States and Canada. Inorganic and total phosphorus measurements have historically been used to estimate nonpoint and point source contributions, from contributing watersheds with organic phosphorus often neglected. Here, we used ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry to characterize the dissolved organic matter and specifically dissolved organic phosphorus composition of several nutrient pollutant source materials and aqueous samples in a Lake Erie tributary. We detected between 23-313 organic phosphorus formulae across our samples, with manure samples having greater abundance of phosphorus- and nitrogen containing compounds compared to other samples. Manures also were enriched in lipids and protein-like compounds. The greatest similarities were observed between the Sandusky River and wastewater treatment plant effluent (WWTP), or the Sandusky River and agricultural edge of field samples. These sample pairs shared 84% of organic compounds and 59 to 73% of P-containing organic compounds, respectively. This similarity suggests that agricultural and/or WWTP sources dominate the supply of organic phosphorus compounds to the river. We identify formulae shared between the river and pollutant sources that could serve as possible markers of source contamination in the tributary.This research was supported by an Ohio State University Field to Faucet Institute award to P.J.M and by a Harmful Algal Bloom Research Initiative grant from the Ohio Department of Higher Education

Anatomical, histomorphological and molecular classification of cholangiocarcinoma

Cholangiocarcinoma constitutes a heterogeneous group of malignancies that can emerge at any point of the biliary tree. Cholangiocarcinoma is classified into intrahepatic, perihilar and distal based on its anatomical location. Histologically, conventional perihilar/distal cholangiocarcinomas are mucin-producing adenocarcinomas or papillary tumours; intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas are more heterogeneous and can be sub-classified according to the level or size of the displayed bile duct. Cholangiocarcinoma develops through multistep carcinogenesis and is preceded by dysplastic and in situ lesions. Definition and clinical significance of precursor lesions, including biliary intraepithelial neoplasia, intraductal papillary neoplasms of the bile duct, intraductal tubulopapillary neoplasms and mucinous cystic neoplasm, are discussed in this review. A main challenge in diagnosing cholangiocarcinoma is the fact that tumour tissue for histological examination is difficult to obtain. Thus, a major clinical obstacle is the establishment of the correct diagnosis at a tumour stage that is amenable to surgery which still represents the only curable therapeutic option. Current standards, methodology and criteria for diagnosis are discussed. Cholangiocarcinoma represents a heterogeneous tumour with regard to molecular alterations. In intrahepatic subtype, mainly two distinctive morpho-molecular groups can currently be discriminated. Large-duct type intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma shows a high mutation frequency of oncogenes and tumour suppressor genes, such as KRAS and TP53 while Isocitrate Dehydrogenase 1/2 mutations and Fibroblast Growth Factor Receptor 2-fusions are typically seen in small-duct type tumours. It is most important to ensure the separation of the given anatomical subtypes and to search for distinct subgroups within the subtypes on a molecular and morphological basis

Functional relationships in the nephrotic syndrome

Functional relationships in the nephrotic syndrome. An analysis of 70 observations in patients with the nephrotic syndrome (NS) on a low sodium diet is presented. The following parameters were determined: plasma volume, plasma renin activity, plasma aldosterone concentration, serum albumin, urinary sodium and protein excretion, and creatinine clearance. In 41 instances glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and effective renal plasma flow (ERPF) were determined on the basis of 51Cr-EDTA and 125I-hippuran clearances, and the filtration fraction (FF) was calculated. The results in patients with minimal lesions (ML) and those with histological glomerular lesions (HL) were compared to determine whether these groups can be separated on the basis of signs of hypovolemia and primary renal sodium retention. Although a higher proportion of the ML patients showed extreme sodium retention and elevated plasma renin and aldosterone levels, these values tended to overlap and no differences were found for blood volume, blood pressure, and overall renal function between the groups. FF was markedly and equally depressed in both groups: 13.5 ± 1.6% in the ML and 14.2 ± 1.1% SEM in the HL group (NS). Analysis of the within-group relationships between the parameters under study revealed relatively few correlations, which supports the hypothesis that primary impairment of renal water and salt excretion is an important if not overruling factor in patients with the NS.Relations fonctionnelles au cours du syndrome néphrotique. Une analyse de 70 observations de malades atteintes de syndrome néphrotique (NS) en régime pauvre en sodium est présentée. Les paramètres suivants ont été déterminés: volume plasmatique, activité rénine plasmatique, aldostéronémie, albuminémie, natriurèse et protéinurie, et clearance de la créatinine. Dans 41 fois, le débit de filtration glomérulaire (GFR) et le débit plasmatique rénal efficace (ERPF) ont été déterminés par des clearances au 51Cr-EDTA et au 125I-hippuran, et on a calculé la fraction de filtration (FF). Les résultats des groupes de malades atteints de lésions minimes (ML) et de ceux atteints de lésions glomérulaires histologiques (HL) ont été comparés pour savoir s'il est possible de séparer ces groupes sur la base des signes d'hypovolémie et de rétention sodée d'origine rénale. Bien qu'une plus forte proportion de malades ML ait présenté une réntention sodée et une élévation des niveaux de rénine et d'aldostérone plasmatiques extrêmes, ces valeurs tendaient à se chevaucher et il n'a pas été trouvé de différence dans le volume sanguin, la pression artérielle et la fonction rénale globale entre les groupes. FF était diminuée de façon marquée et identique dans les deux groupes: 13,5 ± 1,6% dans le groupe ML et 14,2 ± 1,1% SEM dans le groupe HL (NS). Une analyse des interrelations à l'intérieur des groupes entre les paramètres étudiés a révélé relativement peu de corrélations, ce qui est en faveur de l'hypothèse que l'altération primitive de l'excrétion rénale d'eau et de sel est un facteur important, sinon capital chez les malades atteints de NS

Washington meets Wall Street: a closer examination of the presidential cycle puzzle

We show that average excess returns during the last two years of the presidential cycle are significantly higher than during the first two years: 9.8 percent over the period 1948 – 2008. This pattern in returns cannot be explained by business-cycle variables capturing time-varying risk premia, differences in risk levels, or by consumer and investor sentiment. In this paper, we formally test the presidential election cycle (PEC) hypothesis as the alternative explanation found in the literature for explaining the presidential cycle anomaly. PEC states that incumbent parties and presidents have an incentive to manipulate the economy (via budget expansions and taxes) to remain in power. We formulate eight empirically testable propositions relating to the fiscal, monetary, tax, unexpected inflation and political implications of the PEC hypothesis. We do not find statistically significant evidence confirming the PEC hypothesis as a plausible explanation for the presidential cycle effect. The existence of the presidential cycle effect in U.S. financial markets thus remains a puzzle that cannot be easily explained by politicians employing their economic influence to remain in power. JEL Classification: E32; G14; P16 Keywords: Political Economy, Market Efficiency, Anomalies, Calendar Effect

Analytic Tableaux for Simple Type Theory and its First-Order Fragment

We study simple type theory with primitive equality (STT) and its first-order fragment EFO, which restricts equality and quantification to base types but retains lambda abstraction and higher-order variables. As deductive system we employ a cut-free tableau calculus. We consider completeness, compactness, and existence of countable models. We prove these properties for STT with respect to Henkin models and for EFO with respect to standard models. We also show that the tableau system yields a decision procedure for three EFO fragments

Laparoscopic subtotal hysterectomy versus laparoscopic total hysterectomy: a decade of experience

At present, there are only few data on the surgical outcomes of laparoscopic hysterectomy (LH). Up till now, it has been unclear whether there is a difference in number of complications among the subcategories of laparoscopic total hysterectomy and laparoscopic subtotal hysterectomy (LSH). Therefore, we have performed a retrospective analysis to evaluate the peri- and postoperative outcomes in women undergoing LSH versus LH. This multi-centre retrospective cohort study (Canadian Task Force classification II-2) was conducted in multi-centres (two teaching hospitals and one university medical centre) in the Netherlands, all experienced in minimally invasive gynaecology. In a multi-centre retrospective cohort study we compared the long-term outcomes of laparoscopic subtotal hysterectomy and laparoscopic total hysterectomy (including laparoscopic assisted vaginal hysterectomy, laparoscopic hysterectomy and total laparoscopic hysterectomy). All laparoscopic hysterectomies from the last 10 years (January 1998 till December 2007) were included. Patient characteristics, intra- and postoperative complications, operating time and duration of hospital stay were recorded. The minimum follow-up was 6 months. A total of 390 cases of laparoscopic hysterectomies were included in the analysis: 192 laparoscopic subtotal hysterectomies and 198 laparoscopic total hysterectomies. Patient characteristics such as age and parity were equal in the groups. The overall number of short-term and long-term complications was comparable in both groups: 17% and 15%. Short-term complications (bleeding, fever) were 3% in the LSH group and 12% in the LH group. Long-term complications were (tubal prolapse and cervical stump reoperations) 15% in the LSH group and 3% in the LH group. Laparoscopic subtotal hysterectomy as compared with the different types of laparoscopic total hysterectomy is associated with more long-term postoperative complications, whereas laparoscopic total hysterectomy is associated with more short-term complications