Boise College; an idea grows

https://scholarworks.boisestate.edu/uni_books/1004/thumbnail.jp

Polling bias and undecided voter allocations: US Presidential elections, 2004 - 2016

Accounting for undecided and uncertain voters is a challenging issue for predicting election results from public opinion polls. Undecided voters typify the uncertainty of swing voters in polls but are often ignored or allocated to each candidate in a simple, deterministic manner. Historically this may have been adequate because the undecided were comparatively small enough to assume that they do not affect the relative proportions of the decided voters. However, in the presence of high numbers of undecided voters, these static rules may in fact bias election predictions from election poll authors and meta-poll analysts. In this paper, we examine the effect of undecided voters in the 2016 US presidential election to the previous three presidential elections. We show there were a relatively high number of undecided voters over the campaign and on election day, and that the allocation of undecided voters in this election was not consistent with two-party proportional (or even) allocations. We find evidence that static allocation regimes are inadequate for election prediction models and that probabilistic allocations may be superior. We also estimate the bias attributable to polling agencies, often referred to as "house effects".Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures, 6 table

The He abundance in the metal-deficient blue compact dwarf galaxies Tol 1214-277 and Tol 65

We present high-quality Keck telescope spectroscopic observations of the two metal-deficient blue compact dwarf (BCD) galaxies Tol 1214-277 and Tol 65. These data are used to derive the heavy-element and helium abundances. We find that the oxygen abundances in Tol 1214-277 and Tol 65 are the same, 12+logO/H=7.54+/-0.01, or Zsun/24, despite the different ionization conditions in these galaxies. The nitrogen-to-oxygen abundance ratio in both galaxies is logN/O=-1.64+/-0.02 and lies in the narrow range found for the other most metal-deficient BCDs. We use the five strongest HeI emission lines 3889, 4471, 5876, 6678 and 7065, to correct self-consistently their intensities for collisional and fluorescent enhancement mechanisms and to derive the He abundance. Underlying stellar absorption is found to be important for the HeI 4471 emission line in both galaxies, being larger in Tol 65. The weighted He mass fractions in Tol 1214-277 and Tol 65 are respectively Y=0.2458+/-0.0039 and 0.2410+/-0.0050 when the three HeI emission lines, 4471, 5876 and 6678, are used, and are, respectively, 0.2466+/-0.0043 and 0.2463+/-0.0057 when the HeI 4471 emission line is excluded. These values are in very good agreement with recent measurements of the He mass fraction in others of the most metal-deficient BCDs by Izotov and coworkers. We find that the combined effect of the systematic uncertainties due to the underlying HeI stellar absorption lines, ionization and temperature structure of the HII region and collisional excitation of the hydrogen emission lines is likely small, not exceeding ~2% (the error is 2sigma). Our results support the validity of the standard big bang model of nucleosynthesis.Comment: 22 pages, 3 Postscript figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

Relativistic positioning: four-dimensional numerical approach in Minkowski space-time

We simulate the satellite constellations of two Global Navigation Satellite Systems: Galileo (EU) and GPS (USA). Satellite motions are described in the Schwarzschild space-time produced by an idealized spherically symmetric non rotating Earth. The trajectories are then circumferences centered at the same point as Earth. Photon motions are described in Minkowski space-time, where there is a well known relation, Coll, Ferrando & Morales-Lladosa (2010), between the emission and inertial coordinates of any event. Here, this relation is implemented in a numerical code, which is tested and applied. The first application is a detailed numerical four-dimensional analysis of the so-called emission coordinate region and co-region. In a second application, a GPS (Galileo) satellite is considered as the receiver and its emission coordinates are given by four Galileo (GPS) satellites. The bifurcation problem (double localization) in the positioning of the receiver satellite is then pointed out and discussed in detail.Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, published (online) in Astrophys. Space Sc

The Metallicity of the Redshift 4.16 Quasar BR2248-1242

We estimate the metallicity in the broad emission-line region of the redshift z=4.16 quasar, BR2248-1242, by comparing line ratios involving nitrogen to theoretical predictions. BR2248-1242 has unusually narrow emission lines with large equivalent widths, thus providing a rare opportunity to measure several line-ratio abundance diagnostics. The combined diagnostics indicate a metallicity of ~2 times solar. This result suggests that an episode of vigorous star formation occurred near BR2248-1242 prior to the observed z=4.16 epoch. The time available for this enrichment episode is only ~1.5 Gyr at z=4.16 (for H_{0}=65 km s^-1 Mpc^-1, Omega_{m}=0.3 and Omega_Lambda ~< 1). This evidence for high metallicities and rapid star formation is consistent with the expected early-epoch evolution of dense galactic nuclei.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures. Prepared in AAStex. Submitted to the Astrophysical Journal Revised version: added 1 referenc

KECK HIRES Spectroscopy of APM 08279+5255

With an optical R-band magnitude of 15.2, the recently discovered z=3.911 BAL quasar APM 08279+5255 is an exceptionally bright high redshift source. Its brightness has allowed us to acquire a high signal-to-noise ratio (~100), high resolution (~6 km/s) spectrum using the HIRES echelle spectrograph on the 10-m Keck I telescope. Given the quality of the data, these observations provide an unprecedented view of associated and intervening absorption systems. Here we announce the availability of this spectrum to the general astronomical community and present a brief analysis of some of its main features.Comment: 21 pages including 5 figures. Accepted for publication by PAS