The Economic Impact of AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, a simple general equilibrium model à la Solow is developed to capture the impact of AIDS on economic growth. To this end, a benchmark model due to Cuddington and Hancock (1994) is extended in various directions. In particular, the sharply declining life expectancy patterns are clearly rejected in the enlarged model through a generic Ben-Porath mechanism. AIDS-related health expenditures are incorporated as well. Using up-do-date optimal forecasting methods, the model applied to South Africa shows that while a relatively short term assessment might not reveal any dramatic AIDS growth effect, the medium/long run impact can be truly devastating. In particular, the heavy trends in mortality and life expectancy currently induced by AIDS are shown to be potentially at least twice more detrimen-tal for per capita economic growth in the period 2020-2030 compared to 2000-2010.Epidemics, Life Expectancy, Economic Growth, AIDS

Stochastic environmental effects, demographic variation, and economic growth

We consider a stochastic environment to study interactions among pollution growth, demographic changes, and economic growth. Drawing on the empirical findings of slow convergence patterns of pollution shocks (viz., with a long-memory), we build an analytical framework where stochastic environmental feedback effects on population changes are reflected upon aggregate economic growth. Long-memory in economic growth, in our model, is shown to arise due to the inherent stochasticity in environmental and demographic system. Empirical results for a set of developed and developing countries generally support our conjecture. Simulation experiment is carried out to lend additional support to this claim.Environmental Quality, Long-memory, Demographic Dynamics, Economic Growth

Age Dynamics and Economic Growth: Revisiting the Nexus in a Nonparametric Setting.

This paper explores the relationship between the growth rates of per capita income and age- structured population in a non-parametric setting. Analysis in this framework provides us with new insights about the interaction structure: significant non-linear relation between the two and interesting ’direct’ and ’feedback’ effects on growth. Nonlinearity is found to be a major source of growth fluctuations in OECD and non-OECD countries.Age dynamics, Economic growth, Non-parametric panel.

A consistent nonparametric estimation of spatial autocovariances

We examine some aspects of estimating sample autocovariances for spatial processes. Especially, we note that for such processes, it is not possible to approximate the expectation by the sample mean, like in the case of time series data. Then, we propose a consistent nonparametric estimation of sample autocovariances for an irregularly scattered spatial process, derived from a transformation of the initial process. We also suggest an L_2-consistent weighting matrix. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimators in finite samples.

Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions: a Nonparametric Approach

This paper examines the empirical interplay between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions using panel data.Relying on nonparametric methods, we find evidence supporting specifications which assume the constancy of the relationship between per capita CO2 emissions and per capita GDP during the period of the study. Moreover, the usually adopted polynomial functional form is rejected against our nonparametric modelling. It is shown that the relationship between gas emissions and GDP displays more complex patterns, despite its monotonous shape, than the well-known Kuznets curve obtained from ad hoc parametric specifications. The economic development process has a negative effect on gas emissions, especially for the early and the advanced stages of development. As a result, developed countries as well as developing countries should make efforts to reduce CO2 emissions.CO2 emissions; Economic development; Environmental Kuznets curve; Nonparametric estimation; Panel data

Economic Development and CO2 Emissions: A Nonparametric Panel Approach

We examine the empirical relation between CO2 emissions per capita and GDP per capita during the period 1960-1996, using a panel of 100 countries. Relying on the nonparametric poolability test of Baltagi et al. (1996), we find evidence of structural stability of the relationship. We then specify a nonparametric panel data model with country-specific effects. Estimation results show that this relationship is upward sloping. Nonparametric specification tests do not reject monotonicity but do reject the polynomial functional form which leads to the environmental Kuznets curve in several studies. --Environmental Kuznets curve,panel data,poolability test,mono- tonicity test,specification test

Vintage capital and the diffusion of clean technologies

We develop a general equilibrium vintage capital model with energy-saving technological progress and an explicit energy sector to study the impact of investment subsidies on equilibrium investment and output. Energy and capital are assumed to be complementary in the production process. New machines are less energy consuming and scrapping is endogenous. Two polar market structures are considered for the energy market, free entry and natural monopoly. First, it is shown that investment subsidies may induce a larger equilibrium investment into cleaner technologies either under free entry or natural monopoly. However in the latter case, this happens if and only if the average cost is decreasing fast enough. Second, larger diffusion rates do not necessarily mean lower energy consumption at equilibrium, which may explain certain empirical observations.Energy-saving technological progress; vintage capital; market imperfections; natural monopoly; investment

The Growth economics of epidemics

This paper examines in an endogenous growth theory perspective the mechanisms through which epidemics affect long term growth. Investment in both physical and human capital are key transmission variables in this respect. The paper distinguishes between Spanish flu like epidemics and AIDS like epidemics. Two-sector growth models are shown to better reflect the specific effects of epidemics. The effects of an AIDS like pandemic on savings and education effort are also modelled via life expectancy. The paper is closed by an extension of the celebrated Cuddington-Hancock model to account for the latter features. An application to the South African case is provided. The main finding points at a delayed effect of Aids on economic growth due to the recent sharp drop in llife expectancy in this country.Epidemics, Human capital, Life expectancy, Growth theory, Spanish flu, AIDS

Promoting clean technologies under imperfect competition

energy-saving technological progress, vintage capital, market imperfections, natural monopoly, investment subsidies

Technology frontier, labor productivity and economic growth: Evidence from OECD countries

We use 29 OECD countries data spanning over 1960-2000 to study the growth strategy when countries are close to the technology frontier. Relying on a semi-parametric generalized additive model, we estimate labor productivity equations. We find that the number of agents enrolled in higher education is a determinant of growth. Moreover, when a country is sufficiently near the technology frontier thanks to an increasing R&D expenditure, it becomes optimal to invest in fundamental research, since after a short period of efficiency, business R&D can no longer ensure the transition toward the technology frontier, while higher education presents the opposite shape. These findings support the main assertion of Aghion and Cohen (2004) that countries which are near the technology frontier have to invest in higher education while those far away from the frontier make their technology level growing up by investing in primary and secondary schooling.Education, R&D, Labor Productivity, Economic Growth