Immunoinformatics design of multivalent epitope vaccine against monkeypox virus and its variants using membrane-bound, enveloped, and extracellular proteins as targets

IntroductionThe current monkeypox (MPX) outbreak, caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV), has turned into a global concern, with over 59,000 infection cases and 23 deaths worldwide.ObjectivesHerein, we aimed to exploit robust immunoinformatics approach, targeting membrane-bound, enveloped, and extracellular proteins of MPXV to formulate a chimeric antigen. Such a strategy could similarly be applied for identifying immunodominant epitopes and designing multi-epitope vaccine ensembles in other pathogens responsible for chronic pathologies that are difficult to intervene against.MethodsA reverse vaccinology pipeline was used to select 11 potential vaccine candidates, which were screened and mapped to predict immunodominant B-cell and T-cell epitopes. The finalized epitopes were merged with the aid of suitable linkers, an adjuvant (Resuscitation-promoting factor), a PADRE sequence (13 aa), and an HIV TAT sequence (11 aa) to formulate a multivalent epitope vaccine. Bioinformatics tools were employed to carry out codon adaptation and computational cloning. The tertiary structure of the chimeric vaccine construct was modeled via I-TASSER, and its interaction with Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) was evaluated using molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulation. C-ImmSim server was implemented to examine the immune response against the designed multi-epitope antigen.Results and discussionThe designed chimeric vaccine construct included 21 immunodominant epitopes (six B-cell, eight cytotoxic T lymphocyte, and seven helper T-lymphocyte) and is predicted non-allergen, antigenic, soluble, with suitable physicochemical features, that can promote cross-protection among the MPXV strains. The selected epitopes indicated a wide global population coverage (93.62%). Most finalized epitopes have 70%–100% sequence similarity with the experimentally validated immune epitopes of the vaccinia virus, which can be helpful in the speedy progression of vaccine design. Lastly, molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulation computed stable and energetically favourable interaction between the putative antigen and TLR4.ConclusionOur results show that the multi-epitope vaccine might elicit cellular and humoral immune responses and could be a potential vaccine candidate against the MPXV infection. Further experimental testing of the proposed vaccine is warranted to validate its safety and efficacy profile

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Immunoinformatics-Aided Analysis of RSV Fusion and Attachment Glycoproteins to Design a Potent Multi-Epitope Vaccine

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) usually causes respiratory tract infections of upper airways in infants and young children. Despite recent medical advances, no approved vaccine is available to control RSV infections. Therefore, we conducted an immunoinformatics study to design and evaluate a potential multi-epitope vaccine against RSV. Sequence-based analyses of the glycoproteins F and G revealed a total of eight CD8 T-cell and three CD4 T-cell epitopes after considering antigenicity, binding affinity and other parameters. Molecular docking analysis confirmed that these T-cell epitopes developed strong structural associations with HLA allele(s). By integrating these prioritized epitopes with linkers and a cholera toxin-derived adjuvant, a multi-epitope vaccine was designed. The developed vaccine was found to be stable, non-allergenic, flexible and antigenic. Molecular docking analysis revealed a striking mean HADDOCK score (−143.3) of top-ranked vaccine-TLR cluster and a Gibbs free energy change (ΔG) value of −11.3 kcal mol−1. As per computational immune simulation results, the vaccine generated a high titer of antibodies (especially IgM) and effector T-cells. Also, codon optimization and in silico cloning ensured the increased expression of vaccine in Escherichia coli. Altogether, we anticipate that the multi-epitope vaccine reported in this study will stimulate humoral and cellular responses against RSV infection, subject to follow-up experimental validation

Molecular and Biochemical Characterization, Antimicrobial Activity, Stress Tolerance, and Plant Growth-Promoting Effect of Endophytic Bacteria Isolated from Wheat Varieties

Endophytic bacteria have been utilized as an alternative source to chemical fertilizers and pesticides to enhance plant productivity and defense mechanisms against biotic and abiotic stress. Five endophytic bacterial strains were isolated from the seeds of three different Pakistani wheat varieties (Ghaneemat-e-IBGE, Atta-Habib, and Siren). The isolated strains AH-1, S-5, S-7, GI-1, and GI-6 showed phylogenetic similarity with Bacillus altitudinis, B. aryabhattai, B. wiedmannii, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Burkholderia gladioli, respectively. All strains showed catalase activity (except AH-1) and Indole-3-acetic acid production, with the highest concentration (16.77 μg·mL−1) found for GI-6, followed by S-5 (11.5 μg·mL−1), nitrogen assimilation (except S-7), phosphorus solubilization (except S-7 and AH-1), and ability to produce siderophores, with maximum productions for GI-6 (31 ± 3.5 psu) and GI-1 (30 ± 2.9 psu). All five analyzed strains possessed antimicrobial activity, which was particularly strong in GI-6 and S-5 against Klebsiella pneumonia, Escherichia coli, and Bacillus subtilis. Increasing salinity stress with NaCl negatively affected the bacterial growth of all isolates. However, strains GI-6 and S-5 showed salt tolerance after three days of incubation. A drought tolerance test resulted in a negative impact of poly ethylene glycol on bacterial growth, which was, however, less pronounced in GI-6 strain. The GI-6 strain revealed growth-promoting effects on inoculated wheat plants

Immunoinformatics design of multivalent epitope vaccine against monkeypox virus and its variants using membrane-bound, enveloped, and extracellular proteins as targets.

Peer reviewed: TrueINTRODUCTION: The current monkeypox (MPX) outbreak, caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV), has turned into a global concern, with over 59,000 infection cases and 23 deaths worldwide. OBJECTIVES: Herein, we aimed to exploit robust immunoinformatics approach, targeting membrane-bound, enveloped, and extracellular proteins of MPXV to formulate a chimeric antigen. Such a strategy could similarly be applied for identifying immunodominant epitopes and designing multi-epitope vaccine ensembles in other pathogens responsible for chronic pathologies that are difficult to intervene against. METHODS: A reverse vaccinology pipeline was used to select 11 potential vaccine candidates, which were screened and mapped to predict immunodominant B-cell and T-cell epitopes. The finalized epitopes were merged with the aid of suitable linkers, an adjuvant (Resuscitation-promoting factor), a PADRE sequence (13 aa), and an HIV TAT sequence (11 aa) to formulate a multivalent epitope vaccine. Bioinformatics tools were employed to carry out codon adaptation and computational cloning. The tertiary structure of the chimeric vaccine construct was modeled via I-TASSER, and its interaction with Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) was evaluated using molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulation. C-ImmSim server was implemented to examine the immune response against the designed multi-epitope antigen. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The designed chimeric vaccine construct included 21 immunodominant epitopes (six B-cell, eight cytotoxic T lymphocyte, and seven helper T-lymphocyte) and is predicted non-allergen, antigenic, soluble, with suitable physicochemical features, that can promote cross-protection among the MPXV strains. The selected epitopes indicated a wide global population coverage (93.62%). Most finalized epitopes have 70%-100% sequence similarity with the experimentally validated immune epitopes of the vaccinia virus, which can be helpful in the speedy progression of vaccine design. Lastly, molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulation computed stable and energetically favourable interaction between the putative antigen and TLR4. CONCLUSION: Our results show that the multi-epitope vaccine might elicit cellular and humoral immune responses and could be a potential vaccine candidate against the MPXV infection. Further experimental testing of the proposed vaccine is warranted to validate its safety and efficacy profile

Employing an immunoinformatics approach revealed potent multi-epitope based subunit vaccine for lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus

Background: Lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) infects many individuals worldwide and causes severe infection in the immunosuppressant recipient, spontaneous abortion, and congenital disabilities in infants. Objectives: There is no specific vaccine or therapeutics available to protect against LCMV infection; thus, there is a need to design a potential vaccine to combat the virus by developing immunity in the population. Herein, we attempted to design a potent multi-epitope vaccine for LCMV using immunoinformatics methods. Methods: The whole proteome of the virus was screened and mapped to extract immunodominant B-cell and T-cell epitopes which were fused with appropriate linkers (EAAAK, GGGS, AAY, GPGPG, and AAY), PADRE sequence (13aa) and an adjuvant (50 S ribosomal protein L7/L12) to formulate a multi-epitope vaccine ensemble. Codon adaptation and in silico cloning of the constructed vaccine were carried out using bioinformatics tools. The secondary and tertiary structure of the vaccine construct was predicted and refined. The physicochemical profile of the designed vaccine was analyzed, and the multi-epitope vaccine's potential to bind Toll-like receptors (TLR2 and TLR4) was evaluated through molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulations. Computational immune simulation of the designed vaccine antigen was performed using the C-ImmSim server. Results: The designed multi-epitope-based vaccine (613 aa) comprised 26 immunodominant (six B-cell, nine cytotoxic T lymphocytes, and 11 helper T lymphocytes) epitopes and is predicted antigenic, non-toxic, non-allergen, soluble, and topographically accessible with a suitable physicochemical profile. The designed vaccine is expected to cover a broad worldwide population (96.35 %) and stimulate a robust adaptive immune response against the virus upon administration. In silico cloning of the constructed vaccine in PET28a (+) vector ensured its optimal expression in the Escherichia coli system. Molecular docking, molecular dynamics simulation, and binding free energy estimation collectively support the stability and energetically favourable interaction of the modeled vaccine–TLR2/4 complexes. Conclusion: The designed multi-epitope vaccine in the present study could serve as a potential vaccine candidate to protect against LMCV infection; however, the experimental validation and safety testing of the vaccine is warranted to validate the study’s outcomes

An Immunoinformatics Approach to Design a Potent Multi-Epitope Vaccine against Asia-1 Genotype of Crimean–Congo Haemorrhagic Fever Virus Using the Structural Glycoproteins as a Target

Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF), caused by Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV), is a disease of worldwide importance (endemic yet not limited to Asia, Middle East, and Africa) and has triggered several outbreaks amounting to a case fatality rate of 10–40% as per the World Health Organization. Genetic diversity and phylogenetic data revealed that the Asia-1 genotype of CCHFV remained dominant in Pakistan, where 688 confirmed cases were reported between the 2012–2022 period. Currently, no approved vaccine is available to tackle the viral infection. Epitope-based vaccine design has gained significant attention in recent years due to its safety, timeliness, and cost efficiency compared to conventional vaccines. In the present study, we employed a robust immunoinformatics-based approach targeting the structural glycoproteins G1 and G2 of CCHFV (Asia-1 genotype) to design a multi-epitope vaccine construct. Five B-cells and six cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTL) epitopes were mapped and finalized from G1 and G2 and were fused with suitable linkers (EAAAK, GGGS, AAY, and GPGPG), a PADRE sequence (13 aa), and an adjuvant (50S ribosomal protein L7/L12) to formulate a chimeric vaccine construct. The selected CTL epitopes showed high affinity and stable binding with the binding groove of common human HLA class I molecules (HLA-A*02:01 and HLA-B*44:02) and mouse major histocompatibility complex class I molecules. The chimeric vaccine was predicted to be an antigenic, non-allergenic, and soluble molecule with a suitable physicochemical profile. Molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulation indicated a stable and energetically favourable interaction between the constructed antigen and Toll-like receptors (TLR2, TLR3, and TLR4). Our results demonstrated that innate, adaptive, and humoral immune responses could be elicited upon administration of such a potent muti-epitope vaccine construct. These results could be helpful for an experimental vaccinologist to develop an effective vaccine against the Asia-1 genotype of CCHFV

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.FindingsGlobal all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.InterpretationGlobal adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic