Robustness of Some Estimators of Linear Model with Autocorrelated Error Terms When Stochastic Regressors are Normally Distributed

Performances of estimators of the linear model under different level of autocorrelation (ρ) are known to be affected by different specifications of regressors. The robustness of some methods of parameter estimation of linear model to autocorrelation are examined when stochastic regressors are normally distributed. Monte Carlo experiments were conducted at both low and high replications. Comparison and preference of estimator(s) are based on their performances via bias, absolute bias, variance and more importantly the mean squared error of the estimated parameters of the model. Results show that the performances of the estimators improve with increased replication. In estimating all the parameters of the model, the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimator is more efficient than any of the Generalized Least Square (GLS) estimators considered when − 0.25 \u3c ρ ≤ 0.25; and the Maximum Likelihood (ML) and the Hildreth and LU (HILU) estimators are robust

Youth Migration and Agricultural Production: Analysis of Farming Communities of Osun State, Nigeria

The study investigated the causes and examined the effects of youth migration on agricultural production in Osun State, Nigeria. A two stage sampling produre was used to select 295 farmers in selected farming communities in the state. The mean age of the farmers was 49.67 ± 9.70 and 70.2 per cent were male while the mean years of formal education was 6.84 ± 0.73. Absence of social amenities, poverty and search for better education in the cities were the major causes of migration. Reduction in farm size, hired and family labour with negative consequence of food production were the predominant effects of youth migration on agricultural production. The findings also showed that agricultural production (r = -0.634; p ≤ 0.01) was negatively correlated with the effects of youth migration in Osun State. It is therefore, recommended that government and developmental stakeholders should ensure that social amenities are provided in farming communities of Nigeria in order to encourage youths retention in rural areas with the aim of enhancing rural and agricultural development in the State

Youth Migration and Agricultural Production: Analysis of Farming Communities of Osun State, Nigeria

The study investigated the causes and examined the effects of youth migration on agricultural production in Osun State, Nigeria. A two stage sampling produre was used to select 295 farmers in selected farming communities in the state. The mean age of the farmers was 49.67 ± 9.70 and 70.2 per cent were male while the mean years of formal education was 6.84 ± 0.73. Absence of social amenities, poverty and search for better education in the cities were the major causes of migration. Reduction in farm size, hired and family labour with negative consequence of food production were the predominant effects of youth migration on agricultural production. The findings also showed that agricultural production (r = -0.634; p ≤ 0.01) was negatively correlated with the effects of youth migration in Osun State. It is therefore, recommended that government and developmental stakeholders should ensure that social amenities are provided in farming communities of Nigeria in order to encourage youths retention in rural areas with the aim of enhancing rural and agricultural development in the State

Epidemiology of Untreated Psychoses in 3 Diverse Settings in the Global South: The International Research Program on Psychotic Disorders in Diverse Settings (INTREPID II).

IMPORTANCE: Less than 10% of research on psychotic disorders has been conducted in settings in the Global South, which refers broadly to the regions of Latin America, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. There is a lack of basic epidemiological data on the distribution of and risks for psychoses that can inform the development of services in many parts of the world. OBJECTIVE: To compare demographic and clinical profiles of cohorts of cases and rates of untreated psychoses (proxy for incidence) across and within 3 economically and socially diverse settings in the Global South. Two hypotheses were tested: (1) demographic and clinical profiles of cases with an untreated psychotic disorder vary across setting and (2) rates of untreated psychotic disorders vary across and within setting by clinical and demographic group. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The International Research Program on Psychotic Disorders in Diverse Settings (INTREPID II) comprises incidence, case-control, and cohort studies of untreated psychoses in catchment areas in 3 countries in the Global South: Kancheepuram District, India; Ibadan, Nigeria; and northern Trinidad. Participants were individuals with an untreated psychotic disorder. This incidence study was conducted from May 1, 2018, to July 31, 2020. In each setting, comprehensive systems were implemented to identify and assess all individuals with an untreated psychosis during a 2-year period. Data were analyzed from January 1 to May 1, 2022. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The presence of an untreated psychotic disorder, assessed using the Schedules for Clinical Assessment in Neuropsychiatry, which incorporate the Present State Examination. RESULTS: Identified were a total of 1038 cases, including 64 through leakage studies (Kancheepuram: 268; median [IQR] age, 42 [33-50] years; 154 women [57.5%]; 114 men [42.5%]; Ibadan: 196; median [IQR] age, 34 [26-41] years; 93 women [47.4%]; 103 men [52.6%]; Trinidad: 574; median [IQR] age, 30 [23-40] years; 235 women [40.9%]; 339 men [59.1%]). Marked variations were found across and within settings in the sex, age, and clinical profiles of cases (eg, lower percentage of men, older age at onset, longer duration of psychosis, and lower percentage of affective psychosis in Kancheepuram compared with Ibadan and Trinidad) and in rates of untreated psychosis. Age- and sex-standardized rates of untreated psychoses were approximately 3 times higher in Trinidad (59.1/100 000 person-years; 95% CI, 54.2-64.0) compared with Kancheepuram (20.7/100 000 person-years; 95% CI, 18.2-23.2) and Ibadan (14.4/100 000 person-years; 95% CI, 12.3-16.5). In Trinidad, rates were approximately 2 times higher in the African Trinidadian population (85.4/100 000 person-years; 95% CI, 76.0-94.9) compared with the Indian Trinidadian (43.9/100 000 person-years; 95% CI, 35.7-52.2) and mixed populations (50.7/100 000 person-years; 95% CI, 42.0-59.5). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This analysis adds to research that suggests that core aspects of psychosis vary by historic, economic, and social context, with far-reaching implications for understanding and treatment of psychoses globally

The functional relationship between transglutaminase 2 and transforming growth factor β1 in the regulation of angiogenesis and endothelial-mesenchymal transition

The importance of transglutaminase 2 (TG2) in angiogenesis has been highlighted in recent studies, but other roles of this multi-functional enzyme in endothelial cell (EC) function still remains to be fully elucidated. We previously showed that the extracellular TG2 is involved in maintaining tubule formation in ECs by a mechanism involving matrix-bound vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) signalling. Here, by using the ECs and fibroblast co-culture and ECs 3D culture models, we demonstrate a further role for TG2 in both endothelial tubule formation and in tubule loss, which involves its role in the regulation of transforming growth factor β1 (TGFβ1) and Smad signalling. We demonstrate that inhibition of tubule formation by TG2 inhibitors can be restored by add-back of exogenous TGFβ1 at pg/ml levels and show that TG2 -/- mouse ECs are unable to form tubules in 3D culture and display negligible Smad signalling compared to wild-type cells. Loss of tubule formation in the TG2 -/- ECs can be reconstituted by transduction with TG2. We demonstrate that extracellular TG2 also has an important role in TGFβ1-induced transition of ECs into myofibroblast-like cells (endothelial-mesenchymal transition), resulting in loss of EC tubules and tubule formation. Our data also indicate that TG2 may have a role in regulating TGFβ signalling through entrapment of active TGFβ1 into the extracellular matrix. In conclusion, our work demonstrates that TG2 has multi-functional roles in ECs where its ability to fine-tune of TGFβ1 signalling means it can be involved in both endothelial tubule formation and tubule rarefaction

Previous disorders and depression outcomes in individuals with 12-month major depressive disorder in the World Mental Health surveys

AIMS: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is characterised by a recurrent course and high comorbidity rates. A lifespan perspective may therefore provide important information regarding health outcomes. The aim of the present study is to examine mental disorders that preceded 12-month MDD diagnosis and the impact of these disorders on depression outcomes.METHODS: Data came from 29 cross-sectional community epidemiological surveys of adults in 27 countries (n = 80 190). The Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) was used to assess 12-month MDD and lifetime DSM-IV disorders with onset prior to the respondent's age at interview. Disorders were grouped into depressive distress disorders, non-depressive distress disorders, fear disorders and externalising disorders. Depression outcomes included 12-month suicidality, days out of role and impairment in role functioning.RESULTS: Among respondents with 12-month MDD, 94.9% (s.e. = 0.4) had at least one prior disorder (including previous MDD), and 64.6% (s.e. = 0.9) had at least one prior, non-MDD disorder. Previous non-depressive distress, fear and externalising disorders, but not depressive distress disorders, predicted higher impairment (OR = 1.4-1.6) and suicidality (OR = 1.5-2.5), after adjustment for sociodemographic variables. Further adjustment for MDD characteristics weakened, but did not eliminate, these associations. Associations were largely driven by current comorbidities, but both remitted and current externalising disorders predicted suicidality among respondents with 12-month MDD.CONCLUSIONS: These results illustrate the importance of careful psychiatric history taking regarding current anxiety disorders and lifetime externalising disorders in individuals with MDD.</p

Association of predicted 10 years cardiovascular mortality risk with duration of HIV infection and antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected individuals in Durban, South Africa

Background: South Africa has the largest population of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) realising the benefits of increased life expectancy. However, this population may be susceptible to cardiovascular disease (CVD) development, due to the chronic consequences of a lifestyle-related combination of risk factors, HIV infection and ART. We predicted a 10-year cardiovascular mortality risk in an HIV-infected population on long-term ART, based on their observed metabolic risk factor profile. Methods: We extracted data from hospital medical charts for 384 randomly selected HIV-infected patients aged ≥ 30 years. We defined metabolic syndrome (MetS) subcomponents using the International Diabetes Federation definition. A validated non-laboratory-based model for predicting a 10-year CVD mortality risk was applied and categorised into five levels, with the thresholds ranging from very low-risk ( 30%). Results: Among the 384 patients, with a mean (± standard deviation) age of 42.90 ± 8.20 years, the proportion of patients that were overweight/obese was 53.3%, where 50.9% had low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and 21 (17.5%) had metabolic syndrome. A total of 144 patients with complete data allowed a definitive prediction of a 10-year CVD mortality risk. 52% (95% CI 44-60) of the patients were stratified to very low risk ( 30%) of 10-year CVD mortality. The CVD risk grows with increasing age (years), 57.82 ± 6.27 among very high risk and 37.52 ± 4.50; p < 0.001 in very low risk patients. Adjusting for age and analysing CVD risk mortality as a continuous risk score, increasing duration of HIV infection (p = 0.002) and ART (p = 0.007) were significantly associated with increased predicted 10 year CVD mortality risk. However, there was no association between these factors and categorised CVD mortality risk as per recommended scoring thresholds. Conclusions: Approximately 1 in 10 HIV-infected patients is at very high risk of predicted 10-year CVD mortality in our study population. Like uninfected individuals, our study found increased age as a major predictor of 10-year mortality risk and high prevalence of metabolic syndrome. Additional CVD mortality risk due to the duration of HIV infection and ART was seen in our population, further studies in larger and more representative study samples are encouraged. It recommends an urgent need for early planning, prevention and management of metabolic risk factors in HIV populations, at the point of ART initiation

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. FINDINGS: Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. INTERPRETATION: As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed