Analyzing the economic development-driven ecological deficit in the EU-15 countries: new evidence from PSTR approach

This paper empirically analyzes the non-linear effect of economic activities on ecological balance indicators that estimate the balance between economies' pressure on nature and the biologically productive resource areas affected by human activity and the earth's ecological carrying capacity. In measuring this balance, ecological balance sheet indicators are divided into four sub-components: cropland, fishing grounds, forest area, and grazing land. The sample of the study consists of the EU-15 countries over the period 1995-2016. To render the study robust with respect to econometric issues such as potential endogeneity bias, cross-country heterogeneity, non-linearity, and time instability, the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) method is adapted. The empirical findings reveal that up to a certain threshold level, economic activities do not affect the ecological balance as nature can compensate for the resulting externalities, but beyond this threshold, waste accumulation and pollution exceed nature's capacity to absorb. Consequently, these findings do not empirically support the EKC hypothesis with an inverted U-shaped curve and suggest that active environmental policies are needed to improve the environment

Does Too Much Energy Consumption Harm Economic Growth for Turkish Republics in The Transition Process? New Evidence on Threshold Effects

This paper examines whether the effect of energy consumption on economic growth is dependent on the level of energy intensity for 5 Turkish republics in the transition process over the period 1991–2012. These economies are divided into two groups in the context of their energy balance. The first group comprises all of the Turkish republics in the transition process while the second group is composed of only the net energy exporter countries among them. Using an innovative dynamic panel threshold technique, the estimated threshold of the energy intensity for the first group is 0.68 per cent, while for the second group countries the threshold is 0.44 per cent. The empirical results indicate that the energy consumption rate above the threshold energy intensity level adversely affects the economic growth, but this negative relationship becomes positive one when the energy consumption is below the threshold level. These findings reveal that the energy consumption is beneficial to economic growth only up to a certain threshold of the energy intensity; beyond the threshold level further the consumption tends to adversely affect the growth. In this regard, policy makers in the transition economies should not ignore threshold levels within the context of energy intensity while determining energy policies. Keywords: Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, Energy Intensity JEL Classifications: C24, Q43, O1

Editor’s Note ...

anemonDear readers, We are happy to be present with the special issue of the conference titled "ICEESS'18 International Conference on Empirical Economics & Social Science" held on 27-28 June 2018 at Bandırma Onyedi Eylül University.Değerli okuyucular,  Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi’nin, 27-28 Haziran 2018 tarihlerinde Bandırma Onyedi Eylül Üniversitesinde düzenlenen “ICEESS’18 International Conference on Empirical Economics & Social Science” isimli konferansın Özel Sayısı ile karsınızda olmanın mutluluğunu yasıyoruz.25872

Is the ecological footprint related to the Kuznets curve a real process or rationalizing the ecological consequences of the affluence? Evidence from PSTR approach

The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the nonlinear effects of economic growth on ecological footprints as an indicator of environmental degradation. The sample consists of 26 European Union (EU) countries by covering the 1990-2013 period. We employ the recently developed panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model, which can predict the threshold level endogenously. These ecological footprints are divided into those occurring on six major categories of ecologically productive areas, including cropland, grazing land, forest area, fishing grounds, built-up land, and carbon-absorption land. The empirical results indicate that environmental pressure tends to increase with economic development, but then does not decline with further growth for all the ecological footprints except the fishing grounds footprint (FGF). The empirical findings imply that the EKC hypothesis is a problematic phenomenon, at least in the case of the accumulation of stocks of waste, since the relationship between ecological footprint types (excluding the FGF) and economic development does not exhibit the inverted U-shaped pattern associated with the EKC hypothesis

İHRACAT YAPISI VE EKONOMİK PERFORMANS ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: SEÇİLMİŞ G-20 ÜLKELERİ İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ

Bu çalışmada G-20 üyesi ülkelerden dış ticaret hacmine göre son 11 ülke için ihracat yapısı ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki parametrik olmayan yaklaşımdan hareketle incelenmiştir. Çalışma, yetenek ve teknoloji yoğun imalat sanayi ihracatı ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi beşeri sermaye ve kurumsal kalite gibi değişkenlerden hareketle analiz etmektedir. Söz konusu ülkeler arasındaki farklı büyüme performanslarının ortaya konmasında yetenek ve teknoloji yoğun ihracatın rolünün incelenmesinde LiRacin (2004) genelleştirilmiş Kernel Tahmin Yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Genişletilmiş modelde bu ülkeler için ekonomik performansı etkileyen diğer faktörleri kontrol etmek için finansal sermayeye ulaşım ve dış piyasalara giriş değişkenleri de kullanılmıştır. Makalede teknoloji yoğunluğuna göre ayrıştırılmış dış ticarete konu mallar United Nations Comtrade Harmonized System 4-digite göre sınıflandırılmıştır. G-20 grubunun dış ticaret hacmine göre son 11 ülkesi olan Türkiye, İtalya, Hindistan, Meksika, Endonezya, Kanada, Avusturalya, Arjantin, Brezilya, Güney Kore ve Rusya için yapılan analiz 1995-2010 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Parametrik analiz sonuçlarına benzer şekilde parametrik olmayan analiz yöntemi ile elde edilen sonuçlar da ekonomik büyüme ile yetenek ve teknoloji yoğun malların ihracatı arasında pozitif ve anlamlı bir ilişki olduğu yönünde kanıtlar sunmaktadır.In this study, the relationship between export structure and economic growth in the last 11 countries (in terms of foreign trade volume) of G-20 was studied using a non-parametric approach. The study analyzes the relationship between skill-and-technology intensive manufacturing industry exportation and economic growth based on variables such as human capital and institutional quality. In demonstrating the difference between the growth rates of the countries in question (and in examining the role of skill-and-technologyintensive export), the Li-Racine (2004) Generalized Kernel Estimation Method has been used. The foreign trade goods categorized according to their technological intensity in the paper were classified in accordance with the United Nations Comtrade Harmonized System (4-digit). The last 11 countries of the G20 in terms of foreign trade volume are the following: Turkey, Italy, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Canada, Australia, Argentina, Brazil, Southern Korea, and Russia. The analysis covers the time period of 19952010. The results of non-parametric analysis methods reveal, just as parametric analysis results do, that there exists a positive and meaningful relationship between economic growth and the export of skill-andtechnology-intensive goods for most countries

An empirical analysis on the relationship between public sector size and economic growth in Turkey

Richard Armey tarafından ortaya atılan Armey Eğrisi devletin ekonomik süreçteki rolünü ortaya koymak için geliştirilen araçlardan biridir. Armey eğrisi kamu harcamalarıyla Gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYH) arasında bir noktaya kadar pozitif, bir noktadan sonra negatif ilişki oluğu şeklindeki temel mantığı yansıtmaktadır. Friedman'a (1997) göre özgür ve açık bir toplumda devlet önemli bir role sahiptir. Kamu sektörünün ekonomiye ortalama katkısının pozitif olduğu, ancak bu payın ulusal gelirin %15'inden %50'sine gidildikçe marjinal katkısının negatif olacağını vurgulamaktadır. Dolayısıyla Friedman kamu harcamalarının optimal düzeyinin, ülkelerin gelişmişlik düzeylerine göre, GSYH'nın %15 ile %50'si arasında olması gerektiğini savunmaktadır. Çalışmada bu hipotez 1975-2010 dönemi verilerinden hareketle ve ekonometrik zaman serileri analizinden yararlanarak Türkiye ekonomisi için test edilmiş ve toplam kamu harcamaları ve harcama kategorileri için Armey eğrisinin geçerli olup olmadığına bakılmıştır. Ampirik bulgular kamu yatırım harcamaları dışında diğer harcama kategorileri ve ekonomik büyüme arasında "ters U" biçiminde bir ilişkinin olduğunu doğrulamıştır. Ayrıçtı Türkiye ekonomisi için toplam kamu harcamalarının optimal düzeyi, GSYH'nın %16'sı düzeyinde hesaplanmıştır. Bu oran Türkiye ekonomisi için 2010 yılı kamu harcamalarının/GSYH'ya oranı olan %26.6 düzeyinin altındadır. Bu durumda sunulabilecek makroekonomik politika önerilerinden biri Türkiye 'de kamu harcamalarının azaltılması gereğidir.Armey Curve, propounded by Richard Armey, is one of the tools that developed to demonstrate the role of the state in the economic process. The basic logic behind the Armey Curve is that the relationship between public spending and gross domestic product (GDP) is positive up to a certain point, thereafter the relationship becomes negative. According to Friedman (1997), the government has an important role in a free and open society. It is emphasized that, average contribution of the public sector in the economy is positive, but as the public share of national income increases from 15% to 50% the marginal contribution of the public sector will be negative. Therefore, Friedman advocates that based on development level of countries, the optimal level of public spending should be between 15% and 50%. In this article, Friedman's hypothesis is tested for Turkish economy using the data of the period 1975-2010 by the help of econometric time-series analysis, and Armey Curve is evaluated whether it is valid for total public expenditure and expenditure components or not. Empirical findings confirmed that there is a relationship as -inverse U- between economic growth and other expenditure components except public investment expenditure. Moreover, the optimal level of total public expenditure for Turkish economy is calculated as 16% of GDP. This ratio is below the level of 26.6% which is the ratio of 2010 public expenditure to GDP. In this case, one of the macroeconomic policy proposals can be the reduction of the public expenditures in Turkish economy

The monetary determinants of ınflation in central and Eastern European transition economies: Dynamic panel data analysis

Öz: Fiyatlar genel düzeyinin sürekli ve hızlı bir şekilde yükselmesini ifade eden enflasyon, ekonomilerde çözülmesi gereken öncelikli bir problem olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır. Ekonominin içinde bulunduğu şartlara göre talep ya da maliyet kökenine dayanabilmektedir. Bu problemin etkili ve kalıcı çözümü için nedenlerinin bilinmesi, politika karar alıcılarının yürütecekleri politikaları belirlemeleri ve araç seçimleri açısından önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Avrupa Birliği üyesi Merkezi ve Doğu Avrupa (MDA) geçiş ekonomilerinde enflasyonun parasal belirleyicilerinin incelenmesidir. Bu amaçla, 1995 ve 2012 dönemi itibariyle, Bulgaristan, Slovenya, Slovakya, Estonya, Litvanya, Letonya, Polonya, Çek Cumhuriyeti, Macaristan ve Romanya ekonomilerinde reel faiz oranı, mevduat faiz oranı, kredi faiz oranı, ücret artış oranı, para arzı ve döviz kuru değişkenlerinin enflasyon değişkeni üzerindeki etkileri dinamik panel veri tekniğiyle test edilmiştir. Çalışmada, MDA ekonomileri geneli için enflasyon oranı üzerinde kredi faiz oranı ile para arzı değişkenlerinin belirleyici rol oynadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.Abstract: Inflation which indicates a quick and continous increase in the aggregate price level has emerged in economies as a priority problem to be solved. Inflation can stem from demand or cost origin based on the conditions of the economies. Understanding the causes of this problem, which is fundamental for an effective and a permanent solution, is vitally important in terms of policy decision-makers to carry out policies and selecting policy tools. The present study aims at investigating the monetary determinants of inflation in Central and Eastern European (MDA) transition economies. In this regard, the study tested the effects of variables such as the real interest rate, deposit rate, lending rate, wage growth rate, money supply and exchange rate on inflation in the transitional economies of Bulgaria, Slovenia, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania in the 1995:01-2012:12 period by using dynamic panel data analysis. It was concluded in study that lending rate and money supply played a decisive role on inflation rate in most of the MDA economies

Investment Decisions underMacroeconomic Uncertainty and Risk: TheCase of Turkey

Bu çalışmada belirsizlik ve risk faktörlerinin, Türkiye'de reel sektörde faaliyet gösteren firmaların sabit sermaye ve finansal yatırım kararları üzerindeki etkileri 2003-2012 dönemi itibariyle araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla çalışmada, ARCH-GARCH yöntemi ile elde edilen enflasyon, döviz kuru ve büyüme hızı belirsizlikleri ile ekonomik, politik, finansal ve ülke risk göstergeleri kullanılmıştır. Bu faktörlerin yatırımlar üzerindeki etkileri dinamik panel veri analiz yönteminden hareketle portföy seçim modeli kullanılarak oluşturulan yatırım denklemi çerçevesinde değerlendirilmiştir. Araştırma sonuçlarına göre risk faktörleri ve belirsizliklerin yatırım kararları üzerinde negatif ve anlamlı bir etkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir.In this study, the impacts of uncertainty and risk factors on fixed asset and financial investment decisions of the firms in real sector in Turkey have been investigated for the period of 2003-2012. For this aim, inflation, exchange and growth rate uncertainties having been obtained by ARCHGARCH method and economic, political, financial and country risk indicators have been used in this study. Their impact on investment is assessed by using investment equation that is generated by portfolio choice model, in accordance with the dynamic panel data analysis. The results show that risk factors and uncertainty have a negative and significant impact on investment decisions

Inflation and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis for Turkish Republics in Transition Process

AbstractThis study investigates the influence of inflation on economic growth for five Turkish Republics (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan) that are in the transition period through dynamic panel data analysis based on threshold. Study results indicate that there is a nonlinear relationship between inflation and growth rate; the threshold for the influence of inflation on economic growth is 7.97%, and an inflation rate above this threshold has a negative influence on economic growth while an inflation rate below this threshold has a positive influence on economic growth. These results show that a high inflation rate will have a considerable influence on economic growth. In this regard, it is important to achieve sustainable growth which plays a crucial role in increasing the efficiency of implemented monetary policies and assuring stability. Therefore, political and economic decision-makers in transition economies do not ignore the concept of threshold within the scope of monetary policy while determining the target inflation rate in their efforts to deal with inflation