In Search of a Better Life: The Occupational Attainment of Rural and Urban Migrants in China

This paper investigates the occupational attainment and job mobility of permanent rural-to-urban migrants and compares them with migrants who were born with an urban hukou. Using data from the 2003 China General Social Survey, we examine how much of the gaps in occupational-prestige scores between rural- and urban-born migrants can be explained by differences in observable characteristics up to the time of migration. We find that, with controls for these characteristics, the difference in occupational attainment between rural and urban migrants becomes statistically insignificant or even positive for some subgroups. In contrast, our analysis of job mobility reveals that rural migrants are generally more mobile and also more likely to move to better jobs by changing work units, whereas urban migrants are more likely to be promoted within a work unit.

Differential Effects of Graduating during a Recession across Race and Gender

This paper examines the differential effects of the unemployment rate at entry to the labor market, defined as completion of education, on subsequent wages across race and gender. Economic theories about search frictions, human capital accumulation and the internal labor markets all predict less persistence for low skilled or disadvantaged workers and weaker effects on those with weak attachment to the labor force. Consistent with these predictions, the author finds that the effect fades faster for blacks, although the initial impact of a recession at entry is stronger for them. The study also find weaker effects for women

ループス腎炎患者における血管内皮細胞のIgA抗体価と疾患活動性との関連について

藤田保健衛生大

Fiscal Policy Cyclicality and Growth within the U.S. States

We exploit differences in the stringency of balanced budget rules across US states to estimate the effect of fiscal policy cyclicality on state GDP growth. While most states have passed laws restricting deficits, the nature and strictness of these laws vary greatly. States with more stringent balanced budget restrictions run more procyclical fiscal policy. We use the diversity in these laws as an instrument for the cyclicality of state government spending. We find modest evidence that more counter-cyclical public expenditure increases a state's average growth rate per capita. Further, our point estimates suggest that a state could increase its annual growth rate by 0.4% by relaxing the "ex-post" balanced budget restriction. This estimated effect is statistically significant at the 10% level in our basic specification, but loses its significance when we control for the initial debt to GDP ratio.growth, fiscal policy, cyclicality

Long-Term Effects of a Recession at Labor Market Entry in Japan and the United States

This paper examines effects of entering the labor market during a recession on subsequent earnings and employment for Japanese and American men, using comparable household labor force surveys. Previous analyses focus on search theoretic and implicit-contract arguments, which have their strongest effects on more educated workers. The authors argue that, in a country like Japan which has a dual labor market, there is an additional mechanism that affects mainly less educated workers. Namely, these workers are more likely to be trapped in the secondary sector if they graduate during a recession. We find a persistent, strong negative effect on earnings for less educated Japanese men, in contrast to no long-term effect for less educated American men; also, a substantial part of the effect for less educated Japanese men is attributed to the decreased probability of regular employment. The effect for the more educated group is more or less similar in both countries

Female Labor Market Conditions and Family Formation

Slack labor market conditions for women relative to men increase marriage rates for young women. One concern is that this increase may be from marginal marriages due to some females lowering their reservation match quality, and so lead to future divorces and possibly to increases in female headship and poverty. This paper examines the long-term consequences of such marriages using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. I find that the marriages induced by relatively poor economic conditions for women reflect shifts in the timing of marriage among young women who would eventually marry anyway. Labor market conditions at age 18-20 do not affect the fraction of women who will marry by age 30. Further, labor market conditions at marriage are uncorrelated with the probability of divorce or with spouses' characteristics, and marrying young in response to labor market shocks does not significantly affect a woman's fertility or labor supply. These findings are consistent with a model in which economic conditions affect women's search intensity without affecting their reservation match quality

Fiscal Policy Cyclicality and Growth within the U.S. States

We exploit differences in the stringency of balanced budget rules across US states to estimate the effect of fiscal policy cyclicality on state GDP growth. While most states have passed laws restricting deficits, the nature and strictness of these laws vary greatly. States with more stringent balanced budget restrictions run more procyclical fiscal policy. We use the diversity in these laws as an instrument for the cyclicality of state government spending. We find modest evidence that more counter-cyclical public expenditure increases a state\u27s average growth rate per capita. Further, our point estimates suggest that a state could increase its annual growth rate by 0.4% by relaxing the ex-post balanced budget restriction. This estimated effect is statistically significant at the 10% level in our basic specification, but loses its significance when we control for the initial debt to GDP ratio

Immigrants and Earnings Inequality: Evidence from Hong Kong

Using data from 1991 to 2006 in Hong Kong, this paper documents how the distribution of workers’ earnings and the inequality of immigrants’ and natives’ earnings changed over time. We decompose earnings inequality to explore how the changes in immigrants’ share of the labor force have affected earnings inequality. We find that the increase in overall inequality can be explained by the increase in the within-group variance of natives. A nonnegligible part of the increase in inequality for women is due to the expansion of between-group variance caused by the large inflow of low-income immigrants from developing countries