Sensitivity analysis of periodic matrix population models

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2012. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Theoretical Population Biology 82 (2012): 329-339, doi:10.1016/j.tpb.2012.03.008.Periodic matrix models are frequently used to describe cyclic temporal variation (seasonal or interannual) and to account for the operation of multiple processes (e.g., demography and dispersal) within a single projection interval. In either case, the models take the form of peri- odic matrix products. The perturbation analysis of periodic models must trace the e ects of parameter changes, at each phase of the cycle, on output variables that are calculated over the entire cycle. Here, we apply matrix calculus to obtain the sensitivity and elasticity of scalar-, vector-, or matrix-valued output variables. We apply the method to linear models for periodic environments (including seasonal harvest models), to vec-permutation models in which individ- uals are classi ed by multiple criteria, and to nonlinear models including both immediate and delayed density dependence. The results can be used to evaluate management strategies and to study selection gradients in periodic environments.This research was supported by NSF Grant DEB-0816514, by a Research Award from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, and by WHOI Academic Programs Funds

Global political responsibility for the conservation of albatrosses and large petrels

Migratory marine species cross political borders and enter the high seas, where the lack of an effective global management framework for biodiversity leaves them vulnerable to threats. Here, we combine 10,108 tracks from 5775 individual birds at 87 sites with data on breeding population sizes to estimate the relative year-round importance of national jurisdictions and high seas areas for 39 species of albatrosses and large petrels. Populations from every country made extensive use of the high seas, indicating the stake each country has in the management of biodiversity in international waters. We quantified the links among national populations of these threatened seabirds and the regional fisheries management organizations (RFMOs) which regulate fishing in the high seas. This work makes explicit the relative responsibilities that each country and RFMO has for the management of shared biodiversity, providing invaluable information for the conservation and management of migratory species in the marine realm

Climate change, phenological shifts, eco-evolutionary responses and population viability: toward a unifying predictive approach

The debate on emission targets of greenhouse gasses designed to limit global climate change has to take into account the ecological consequences. One of the clearest ecological consequences is shifts in phenology. Linking these shifts to changes in population viability under various greenhouse gasses emission scenarios requires a unifying framework. We propose a box-in-a-box modeling approach that couples population models to phenological change. This approach unifies population modeling with both ecological responses to climate change as well as evolutionary processes. We advocate a mechanistic embedded correlative approach, where the link from genes to population is established using a periodic matrix population model. This periodic model has several major advantages: (1) it can include complex seasonal behaviors allowing an easy link with phenological shifts; (2) it provides the structure of the population at each phase, including the distribution of genotypes and phenotypes, allowing a link with evolutionary processes; and (3) it can incorporate the effect of climate at different time periods. We believe that the way climatologists have approached the problem, using atmosphere–ocean coupled circulation models in which components are gradually included and linked to each other, can provide a valuable example to ecologists. We hope that ecologists will take up this challenge and that our preliminary modeling framework will stimulate research toward a unifying predictive model of the ecological consequences of climate change

Global patterns of sex- and age-specific variation in seabird bycatch

Fisheries bycatch is a major threat to seabird populations, and understanding sex- and age-biases in bycatch rates is important for assessing population-level impacts. We analysed 44 studies to provide the first global assessment of seabird bycatch by sex and age, and used generalised models to investigate the effects of region and fishing method. Bycatch was highly biased by sex (65% of 123 samples) and age (92% of 114 samples), with the majority of samples skewed towards males and adults. Bycatch of adults and males was higher in subpolar regions, whereas there was a tendency for more immatures and females to be killed in subtropical waters. Fishing method influenced sex- and age-ratios only in subpolar regions. Sex- and age-biases are therefore common features of seabird bycatch in global fisheries that appear to be associated largely with differences in at-sea distributions. This unbalanced mortality influences the extent to which populations are impacted by fisheries, which is a key consideration for at-risk species. We recommend that researchers track individuals of different sex and age classes to improve knowledge of their distribution, relative overlap with vessels, and hence susceptibility to bycatch. This information should then be incorporated in ecological risk assessments of effects of fisheries on vulnerable species. Additionally, data on sex, age and provenance of bycaught birds should be collected by fisheries observers in order to identify regions and fleets where bycatch is more likely to result in population-level impacts, and to improve targeting of bycatch mitigation and monitoring of compliance

Evaluating the Potential Effectiveness of Compensatory Mitigation Strategies for Marine Bycatch

Conservationists are continually seeking new strategies to reverse population declines and safeguard against species extinctions. Here we evaluate the potential efficacy of a recently proposed approach to offset a major anthropogenic threat to many marine vertebrates: incidental bycatch in commercial fisheries operations. This new approach, compensatory mitigation for marine bycatch (CMMB), is conceived as a way to replace or reduce mandated restrictions on fishing activities with compensatory activities (e.g., removal of introduced predators from islands) funded by levies placed on fishers. While efforts are underway to bring CMMB into policy discussions, to date there has not been a detailed evaluation of CMMB's potential as a conservation tool, and in particular, a list of necessary and sufficient criteria that CMMB must meet to be an effective conservation strategy. Here we present a list of criteria to assess CMMB that are tied to critical ecological aspects of the species targeted for conservation, the range of possible mitigation activities, and the multi-species impact of fisheries bycatch. We conclude that, overall, CMMB has little potential for benefit and a substantial potential for harm if implemented to solve most fisheries bycatch problems. In particular, CMMB is likely to be effective only when applied to short-lived and highly-fecund species (not the characteristics of most bycatch-impacted species) and to fisheries that take few non-target species, and especially few non-seabird species (not the characteristics of most fisheries). Thus, CMMB appears to have limited application and should only be implemented after rigorous appraisal on a case-specific basis; otherwise it has the potential to accelerate declines of marine species currently threatened by fisheries bycatch

The coevolution of sexual imprinting by males and females

© 2016 The Authors. Published by Wiley. This is an open access article available under a Creative Commons licence. The published version can be accessed at the following link on the publisher’s website: https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2409Sexual imprinting is the learning of a mate preference by direct observation of the phenotype of another member of the population. Sexual imprinting can be paternal, maternal, or oblique if individuals learn to prefer the phenotypes of their fathers, mothers, or other members of the population, respectively. Which phenotypes are learned can affect trait evolution and speciation rates. “Good genes” models of polygynous systems predict that females should evolve to imprint on their fathers, because paternal imprinting helps females to choose mates that will produce offspring that are both viable and sexy. Sexual imprinting by males has been observed in nature, but a theory for the evolution of sexual imprinting by males does not exist. We developed a good genes model to study the conditions under which sexual imprinting by males or by both sexes can evolve and to ask which sexual imprinting strategies maximize the fitness of the choosy sex. We found that when only males imprint, maternal imprinting is the most advantageous strategy. When both sexes imprint, it is most advantageous for both sexes to use paternal imprinting. Previous theory suggests that, in a given population, either males or females but not both will evolve choosiness in mating. We show how environmental change can lead to the evolution of sexual imprinting behavior by both sexes in the same population.Natural Environment Research Council, (Grant/Award Number: “NE/K500859/1”).Published versio