Economics in the Air: An Introduction to Economic Issues of the Atmosphere and Climate

Many of the problems societies face today are not limited in accordance with the boundaries of the traditional scientific disciplines. This situation holds especially true for environmental problems. While on the one hand economic activity is the principal cause of environmental problems, economic analysis is increasingly called upon to be an arbiter of problems which have in turn been studied by, for example, atmospheric scientists, ecologists, geographers, and agronomists. Just as economists often have difficulty understanding the results of research in the natural sciences, the framework and possibilities for economic analysis are often poorly understood by natural scientists, engineers, and others when they undertake joint studies of problems which require an integrated multidisciplinary approach. Such mutual lack of comprehension has been evident, for example, in recent efforts toward analysis of the effects of long-term climatic change. This paper is intended as an introductory, but broadly inclusive essay for investigators setting out on the study of various aspects of atmospheric issues for which economic analysis may be relevant. The research for this paper was undertaken at IIASA as part of the Global Climate Task in the Resources and Environment Area during the summer of 1979 and the early part of 1980

CO2: An Introduction and Possible Board Game

There are growing concerns that human activities may lead to global climatic changes. Particular concern is associated with the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, in the future above all from the burning of coal. Questions of the physical effects of different energy policies on climate have been investigated during the last few years under IIASA's Energy Systems Program. More recently, research in the Resources and Environment (REN) Area of IIASA has focused on the relationships of short-term climatic variability and longer term climatic change to human activities, for example, in the agricultural sector. In March of 1980, informal discussions among Jesse Ausubel, and Ingolf Stahl, John Lathrop and Jennifer Robinson of the Management and Technology (MMT) Area led to the idea that gaming might offer an integrative method for study of the overall problem, from causes, through physical changes, to environmental, economic, and societal effects. At present, a collaborative effort is underway among REN and MMT to develop two prototype games, one a board game with primarily an educational purpose, and one an interactive computer game which is seen primarily as a research tool. The board game is intended to be useful for an audience which is non-technical or begins with quite limited familiarity with the CO2 issue. In view of this objective, the following Working Paper sketches the overall CO2 question in simple terms, describes some basic elements of a board game, and offers an annotated bibliography. Another Working Paper, "An Interactive Model for Determining Coal Costs for a CO2-Game," (WP-80-154) describes the logic and a possible framework for parts of the computer game. The project as a whole is described in a Working Paper entitled "Carbon and Climate Gaming" (WP-80-152)

Climatic Constraints and Human Activities: Introduction and Overview

The volume of proceedings entitled "Climatic Constraints and Human Activities" contains a summary essay and seven invited papers from the Task Force meeting on the Nature of Climate Society Research convened in February 1980 at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. This, the introductory essay, examines the differences in research methods on questions of short-term climate variability and longer-term climatic change, identifies some important avenues for research, and briefly surveys the papers. Ausubel and Meyer-Abich take broad looks at climate and public policy. Ausubel offers arguments from an economic point of view as to why the atmosphere is increasingly associated with developments, like climatic change, which are threatening to human activity. The paper by Meyer-Abich surveys from a political point of view the reasons that regulation of activities which could control or prevent climatic change is unlikely to take place, and why adaptation is the most likely path to be followed, especially given the current weakness of the interdisciplinary analysis of the problem of climatic change. The paper by Biswas narrows the focus and illuminates the uncertainty associated with one specific but very prominent area, the relationship between climate and crops, which one might easily assume otherwise to be a more secure area of knowledge. Three case study approaches follow, two emphasizing a geographical perspective and one a social group. Warrick's historical study of the possible "lessening" of drought impacts in the Great Plains of the United States emphasizes the need for a clear setting out of the hypotheses to be tested in research on the relationship of climate and society and the need for improvements of the modeling of the overall system. Spitz develops a model of a food producing class which is also self-provisioning, that is, where food has a dual nature as both a basic need and as merchandise to be traded, and explores the significance of drought to such a group, with particular reference to Eastern India. Czelnai's paper on the Great Plain of the Danube Basin offers interesting insights into the extent into which natural systems have already been transformed by man and proposes ways in which sensitivity and vulnerability to climatic factors may be defined and explored. Finally, Sergin proposes a method of estimating plausible patterns of climatic change based on the similarity between seasonal changes and climatic changes of physical fields on longer time scales

A Note on the Population 50 Years Hence

Attitudes toward societal planning horizons may assume that there is relatively little overlap between the population of today and the population of the future. To test this assumption a rough calculation is made of how many people who are alive today will be alive 50 years hence. The calculation is made on the basis of 3 age cohorts for a sample of 10 countries from 8 demographic categories. While the result is uncertain because of changing mortality, poor data, etc., the authors believe it is reasonably robust. About forty percent of those alive today will be alive in 50 years. This proportion includes 550 million people 15 or older. These results suggest that long planning horizons are rational from the point of view of the self-interest of the existing population. Further research into societal planning horizons would be useful

A Framework for Scenario Generation for CO2 Gaming

This Working Paper develops a framework for the generation of integrated scenarios of carbon use and climatic impacts in the computer-based game and for strengthening the design of the board in the board game. The paper also seeks the assistance of readers in the further elaboration of several aspects of game design

Estimating the Future Input of Fossil Fuel CO2 into the Atmosphere by Simulation Gaming

Previous estimates of input of fossil fuel CO2 into the atmosphere are reviewed, including those of NAS, IIASA, IEA, and Marchetti. Methods employed largely disregard that if CO2-induced changes are indeed harmful then there may be efforts to prevent emissions. There is a need to include explicitly societal response to increasing CO2 emissions in estimating future input as well as the strategic interaction among national energy policies. Economic theory of the general equilibrium type, game theory, and computer simulation (without humans) have disadvantages in this regard. Gaming, involving humans playing the roles of various nations, may be an illuminating approach to the problem. A simple game, focusing on coal, trade, and many nations is proposed as an initial effort

Climatic Constraints and Human Activities; Proceedings of a Task Force on the Nature of Climate and Society Research, February 4-6, 1980

This book contains a summary essay and seven invited papers from the Task Force meeting on the Nature of Climate Society Research. The introductory essay examines the differences in research methods on questions of short-time climatic change, and identifies some important avenues for research. The first two papers, by Ausubel and Meyer-Abich, take broad looks at climate and public policy. Ausubel offers arguments from an economic point of view as to why the atmosphere is increasingly associated with developments, like climatic change, that are threatening to human activity. The paper by Meyer-Abich surveys from a political point of view the reasons that regulation of activities which could control or prevent climatic change are unlikely to take place, and why adaptation is the most likely path to be followed, especially given the current weakness of the interdisciplinary analysis of the problem of climatic change. The paper by Biswas narrows the focus and illuminates the uncertainty associated with one specific but very prominent area, the relationships between climate and crops, which one might easily assume otherwise to be a more secure area of knowledge. Three case study approaches follow, two emphasizing a geographical perspective and one a social group. Warrick's historical study of the possible "lessening" of drought impacts in the Great Plains of the USA emphasizes the need for a clear setting out of hypotheses to be tested in research on the relationship of climate and society and the need for improvements of the modelling of the overall system. Spitz develops a model of a food-producing class which is also self-provisioning, i.e., where food has a dual nature as both a basic need and as merchandise to be traded, and explores the significance of drought to such a group, with particular reference to Eastern India. Czelnai's paper on the Great Plain of the Danube Basin offers interesting insights into the extent to which natural systems have already been transformed by man and proposes ways in which sensitivity and vulnerability to climatic factors may be defined and explored. Finally, Sergin proposes a method of estimating plausible patterns of climatic change based on the similarity between seasonal changes and climatic changes of physical fields on longer time scales

Quantitative dynamics of human empires

Quantitative modeling of social systems shows a large component of automatic drives in the behavior of individual humans and human society. Studies of the formation and breakdown of twenty diverse empires operating over almost three thousand years describe these processes with utmost clarity and pardigmatic simplicity. Taking territorial expansion as the basic parameter, we show that it can e represented in time by a single logistic equation in spite of the complicated sequences of events usually reported by historians. The driving forces of empire, leading to expansion and saturation at 14 days of travel from the capital, can be reduced to testosterone and progesterone

Climatic Change and the Carbon Wealth of Nations

A great deal of research is currently going into simulating the effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on climate. This research considers the direct climatic effects of steadily rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and usually assumes a rate of carbon dioxide increase from burning of fossil fuels which will lead to a doubling of airborne concentrations by some time in the first half of the twenty-first century. Such a rate is consistent with observations of carbon dioxide increases in the recent past, but it also depends crucially on implicit assumptions about the future functioning of the world economy. But, rather than make assumptions about the world economy, one can try to work backward from the carbon dioxide demanded for a mid-twenty-first century climatic change toward the physical carbon resources. Where in the earth will the carbon come from? How is it distributed with respect to present national and regional boundaries? Can this tell us something about the likelihood of realization of a CO2 problem? About the possibilities for its control? And, when combined with estimates of past contribution by geopolitical entities, does it tell us anything about responsibility for a CO2-induced climatic change

Carbon and Climate Gaming

The issue of carbon use and possible associated climatic change has received growing attention in the last few years as an important aspect of assessing the impacts of various energy options. At IIASA that attention has been reflected in the Energy Systems Program and in the Global Climate Task of the Resources and Environment (REN) Area. As explained in this paper, the problem of climatic change can be viewed both as a problem of societal risk management and as a problem in strategic gaming behavior of the various decision makers involved. It is natural, then, that a joint working group at IIASA has formed, quite spontaneously, from representatives of the IIASA climate task (REN), the IIASA risk management project (Management and Technology Area, MMT), and the IIASA gaming project (MMT and Systems and Decision Sciences Area, SDS). This research group benefits from the multidisciplinary character of IIASA, which, along with its neutral scientific stance and long-standing interest in climate and energy, puts IIASA in an excellent position to increase our understanding of the problem of carbon use and climatic change. A list of IIASA papers and publications relating to climate is included here. This paper describes an effort which began in March of 1980 and is expected to continue for another year or more. The paper consists primarily of material developed for a research proposal intended to assure continuation of the project. Two other working papers describing the project are also available. The paper entitled "An Interactive Model for Determining Coal Costs for a CO2-Game" (WP-80-154) describes in more detail the logic and a possible framework for parts of the proposed computer game. The paper "CO2: An Introduction and Possible Board Game" (WP-80-153) offers a non-technical sketch of the question and a description of the second proposed game. The development of the carbon and climate games described in these papers is being carried out at IIASA, while the actual gaming experiments are expected to take place both at IIASA and at other locations convenient for interested groups