Implications of albedo changes following afforestation on the benefits of forests as carbon sinks

Increased carbon storage with afforestation leads to a decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and thus decreases radiative forcing and cools the Earth. However, afforestation also changes the reflective properties of the surface vegetation from more reflective pasture to relatively less reflective forest cover. This increase in radiation absorption by the forest constitutes an increase in radiative forcing, with a warming effect. The net effect of decreased albedo and carbon storage on radiative forcing depends on the relative magnitude of these two opposing processes. <br></br> We used data from an intensively studied site in New Zealand's Central North Island that has long-term, ground-based measurements of albedo over the full short-wave spectrum from a developing <i>Pinus radiata</i> forest. Data from this site were supplemented with satellite-derived albedo estimates from New Zealand pastures. The albedo of a well-established forest was measured as 13 % and pasture albedo as 20 %. We used these data to calculate the direct radiative forcing effect of changing albedo as the forest grew. <br></br> We calculated the radiative forcing resulting from the removal of carbon from the atmosphere as a decrease in radiative forcing of −104 GJ tC<sup>−1</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup>. We also showed that the observed change in albedo constituted a direct radiative forcing of 2759 GJ ha<sup>−1</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup>. Thus, following afforestation, 26.5 tC ha<sup>−1</sup> needs to be stored in a growing forest to balance the increase in radiative forcing resulting from the observed albedo change. Measurements of tree biomass and albedo were used to estimate the net change in radiative forcing as the newly planted forest grew. Albedo and carbon-storage effects were of similar magnitude for the first four to five years after tree planting, but as the stand grew older, the carbon storage effect increasingly dominated. Averaged over the whole length of the rotation, the changes in albedo negated the benefits from increased carbon storage by 17–24 %

Australasia

Observed changes and impacts Ongoing climate trends have exacerbated many extreme events (very high confidence). The Australian trends include further warming and sea level rise sea level rise (SLR), with more hot days and heatwaves, less snow, more rainfall in the north, less April–October rainfall in the southwest and southeast and more extreme fire weather days in the south and east. The New Zealand trends include further warming and sea level rise (SLR), more hot days and heatwaves, less snow, more rainfall in the south, less rainfall in the north and more extreme fire weather in the east. There have been fewer tropical cyclones and cold days in the region. Extreme events include Australia’s hottest and driest year in 2019 with a record-breaking number of days over 39°C, New Zealand’s hottest year in 2016, three widespread marine heatwaves during 2016–2020, Category 4 Cyclone Debbie in 2017, seven major hailstorms over eastern Australia and two over New Zealand from 2014–2020, three major floods in eastern Australia and three over New Zealand during 2019–2021 and major fires in southern and eastern Australia during 2019–2020

Early Neurodegeneration Progresses Independently of Microglial Activation by Heparan Sulfate in the Brain of Mucopolysaccharidosis IIIB Mice

BACKGROUND: In mucopolysaccharidosis type IIIB, a lysosomal storage disease causing early onset mental retardation in children, the production of abnormal oligosaccharidic fragments of heparan sulfate is associated with severe neuropathology and chronic brain inflammation. We addressed causative links between the biochemical, pathological and inflammatory disorders in a mouse model of this disease. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In cell culture, heparan sulfate oligosaccharides activated microglial cells by signaling through the Toll-like receptor 4 and the adaptor protein MyD88. CD11b positive microglial cells and three-fold increased expression of mRNAs coding for the chemokine MIP1alpha were observed at 10 days in the brain cortex of MPSIIIB mice, but not in MPSIIIB mice deleted for the expression of Toll-like receptor 4 or the adaptor protein MyD88, indicating early priming of microglial cells by heparan sulfate oligosaccharides in the MPSIIIB mouse brain. Whereas the onset of brain inflammation was delayed for several months in doubly mutant versus MPSIIIB mice, the onset of disease markers expression was unchanged, indicating similar progression of the neurodegenerative process in the absence of microglial cell priming by heparan sulfate oligosaccharides. In contrast to younger mice, inflammation in aged MPSIIIB mice was not affected by TLR4/MyD88 deficiency. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results indicate priming of microglia by HS oligosaccharides through the TLR4/MyD88 pathway. Although intrinsic to the disease, this phenomenon is not a major determinant of the neurodegenerative process. Inflammation may still contribute to neurodegeneration in late stages of the disease, albeit independent of TLR4/MyD88. The results support the view that neurodegeneration is primarily cell autonomous in this pediatric disease

Projected wine grape cultivar shifts due to climate change in New Zealand

Climate change has already been affecting the regional suitability of grapevines with significant advances in phenology being observed globally in the last few decades. This has significant implications for New Zealand, where the wine industry represents a major share of the horticultural industry revenue. We modeled key crop phenological stages to better understand temporal and spatial shifts in three important regions of New Zealand (Marlborough, Hawke's Bay, Central Otago) for three dominant cultivars (Merlot, Pinot noir, and Sauvignon blanc) and one potential new and later ripening cultivar (Grenache). Simulations show an overall advance in flowering, véraison, and sugar ripeness by mid-century with more pronounced advance by the end of the century. Results show the magnitude of changes depends on the combination of greenhouse gas emission pathway, grape cultivar, and region. By mid-century, in the Marlborough region for instance, the four cultivars would flower 3 to 7 days earlier and reach sugar ripeness 7 to 15 days earlier depending on the greenhouse gas emission pathway. For growers to maintain the same timing of key phenological stages would require shifting planting of cultivars to more Southern parts of the country or implement adaptation strategies. Results also show the compression of time between flowering and véraison for all three dominant cultivars is due to a proportionally greater advance in véraison, particularly for Merlot in the Hawke's Bay and Pinot noir in Central Otago. Cross-regional analysis also raises the likelihood of the different regional cultivars ripening within a smaller window of time, complicating harvesting schedules across the country. However, considering New Zealand primarily accommodates cool climate viticulture cultivars, our results suggest that late ripening cultivars or extended ripening window in cooler regions may be advantageous in the face of climate change. These insights can inform New Zealand winegrowers with climate change adaptation options for their cultivar choices

River water quality changes in New Zealand over 26 years: response to land use intensity

Relationships between land use and water quality are complex with interdependencies, feedbacks, and legacy effects. Most river water quality studies have assessed catchment land use as areal coverage, but here, we hypothesize and test whether land use intensity – the inputs (fertilizer, livestock) and activities (vegetation removal) of land use – is a better predictor of environmental impact. We use New Zealand (NZ) as a case study because it has had one of the highest rates of agricultural land intensification globally over recent decades. We interpreted water quality state and trends for the 26 years from 1989 to 2014 in the National Rivers Water Quality Network (NRWQN) – consisting of 77 sites on 35 mostly large river systems. To characterize land use intensity, we analyzed spatial and temporal changes in livestock density and land disturbance (i.e., bare soil resulting from vegetation loss by either grazing or forest harvesting) at the catchment scale, as well as fertilizer inputs at the national scale. Using simple multivariate statistical analyses across the 77 catchments, we found that median visual water clarity was best predicted inversely by areal coverage of intensively managed pastures. The primary predictor for all four nutrient variables (TN, NOx, TP, DRP), however, was cattle density, with plantation forest coverage as the secondary predictor variable. While land disturbance was not itself a strong predictor of water quality, it did help explain outliers of land use–water quality relationships. From 1990 to 2014, visual clarity significantly improved in 35 out of 77 (34∕77) catchments, which we attribute mainly to increased dairy cattle exclusion from rivers (despite dairy expansion) and the considerable decrease in sheep numbers across the NZ landscape, from 58 million sheep in 1990 to 31 million in 2012. Nutrient concentrations increased in many of NZ's rivers with dissolved oxidized nitrogen significantly increasing in 27∕77 catchments, which we largely attribute to increased cattle density and legacy nutrients that have built up on intensively managed grasslands and plantation forests since the 1950s and are slowly leaking to the rivers. Despite recent improvements in water quality for some NZ rivers, these legacy nutrients and continued agricultural intensification are expected to pose broad-scale environmental problems for decades to come

Modulation of cellular response to cisplatin by a novel inhibitor of DNA polymerase beta.

DNA polymerase beta (Pol beta) is an error-prone enzyme whose up-regulation has been shown to be a genetic instability enhancer as well as a contributor to cisplatin resistance in tumor cells. In this work, we describe the isolation of new Pol beta inhibitors after high throughput screening of 8448 semipurified natural extracts. In vitro, the selected molecules affect specifically Pol beta-mediated DNA synthesis compared with replicative extracts from cell nuclei. One of them, masticadienonic acid (MA), is particularly attractive because it perturbs neither the activity of the purified replicative Pol delta nor that of nuclear HeLa cell extracts. With an IC50 value of 8 microM, MA is the most potent of the Pol beta inhibitors found so far. Docking simulation revealed that this molecule could substitute for single-strand DNA in the binding site of Pol beta by binding Lys35, Lys68, and Lys60, which are the main residues involved in the interaction Pol beta/single-strand DNA. Selected inhibitors also affect the Pol beta-mediated translesion synthesis (TLS) across cisplatin adducts; MA was still the most efficient. Therefore, masticadienonic acid sensitized the cisplatin-resistant 2008C13*5.25 human tumor cells. Our data suggest that molecules such as masticadienonic acid could be suitable in conjunction with cisplatin to enhance anticancer treatments

Dynamic adaptive pathways in downscaled climate change scenarios

The parallel scenario process enables characterization of climate-related risks and response options to climate change under different socio-economic futures and development prospects. The process is based on representative concentration pathways, shared socio-economic pathways, and shared policy assumptions. Although this scenario architecture is a powerful tool for evaluating the intersection of climate and society at the regional and global level, more specific context is needed to explore and understand risks, drivers, and enablers of change at the national and local level. We discuss the need for a stronger recognition of such national-scale characteristics to make climate change scenarios more relevant at the national and local scale, and propose ways to enrich the scenario architecture with locally relevant details that enhance salience, legitimacy, and credibility for stakeholders. Dynamic adaptive pathways are introduced as useful tools to draw out which elements of a potentially infinite scenario space connect with decision-relevant aspects of particular climate-related and non-climate-related risks and response options. Reviewing adaptation pathways for New Zealand case studies, we demonstrate how this approach could bring the global-scale scenario architecture within reach of local-scale decision-making. Such a process would enhance the utility of scenarios for mapping climate-related risks and adaptation options at the local scale, involving appropriate stakeholder involvement