Ensuring Aquatic Food Security in the Philippines

The human population of the Philippines is expected to reach 158 million by the year 2050, or an increase of 37% relative to 2022. This implies increased demand for aquatic food (or “fish” hereafter). This begs the question of whether the Philippines can meet the expected increase in fish demand. We estimate that even if the Philippines can maintain its current fish production, the Philippines will still require 1.67 million metric tons more fish per year by 2050 to at least maintain its current per capita fish consumption of 34.27 kg per year. Continued mismanagement of inland and marine fisheries will further widen the gap in fish supply. However, we argue that simultaneously rebuilding overfished fisheries, restoring degraded habitats crucial to supporting productive fisheries, addressing current threats to fisheries sustainability, and expanding sustainable marine aquaculture (or mariculture) have the potential to meet future fish demand in the Philippines. Sustainably expanding mariculture requires careful siting and management of mariculture development areas so that mariculture can improve food security without disenfranchising and marginalizing local coastal communities

Siting marine protected areas based on habitat quality and extent provides the greatest benefit to spatially structured metapopulations

Connectivity and its role in the persistence and sustainability of marine metapopulations are attracting increased attention from the scientific community and coastal resource managers. Whether protection should prioritize the connectivity structure or demographic characteristics of a given patch is still unclear. We design a three-stage population model to analyze the relative importance of sources, sinks, quality and extent of juvenile and adult habitat, and node centralities (eigenvector, degree, closeness, and betweenness) as a basis for prioritizing sites. We use a logistic-type stage-structured model to describe the local dynamics of a population with a sessile adult stage and network models to elucidate propagule-exchange dynamics. Our results show that the coupled states of habitat extent and quality, which determine population carrying capacity, are good criteria for protection strategy. Protecting sites on the basis of sources, sinks, or other centrality measures of connectivity becomes optimal only in limited situations, that is, when larval production is not dependent on the adult population. Our findings are robust to a diverse set of larval pathway structures and levels of larval retention, which indicates that the network topology may not be as important as carrying capacity in determining the fate of the metapopulation. Protecting extensive, good quality habitat can help achieve both conservation and fisheries objectives