INTRODUCTION OF A SECTORAL APPROACH TO TRANSPORT SECTOR FOR POST-2012 CLIMATE REGIME

Recently, the concept of sectoral approaches has been discussed actively under the UNFCCC framework as it could realize GHG mitigations for the Kyoto Protocol and beyond. However, most studies have never introduced this approach to the transport sector explicitly or analyzed its impacts quantitatively. In this paper, we introduce a sectoral approach which aims to set sector-specific emission reduction targets for the transport sector for the post-2012 climate regime. We suppose that developed countries will commit to the sectoral reduction target and key developing countries such as China and India will have the sectoral no-lose targets — no penalties for the failure to meet targets but the right to sell exceeding reductions — for the medium term commitment, i.e. 2013–2020. Six scenarios of total CO2 emission reduction target in the transport sector in 2020, varying from 5% to 30% reductions from the 2005 level are established. The paper preliminarily analyzes shares of emission reductions and abatement costs to meet the targets for key developed countries including the USA, EU-15, Russia, Japan and Canada. To analyze the impacts of the proposed approach, we generate sectoral marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves by region through extending a top-down economic model, namely the AIM/CGE model. The total emission reduction targets are analyzed against the developed MAC curves for the transport sector in order to obtain an equal marginal abatement cost which derives optimal emission reduction for each country and minimizes total abatement cost. The results indicate that the USA will play a crucial role in GHG mitigations in the transport sector as it is most responsible for emission reductions (i.e. accounts for more than 70%) while Japan will least reduce (i.e. accounts for about 3%) for all scenarios. In the case of a 5% reduction, the total abatement is equal to 171.1 MtCO2 with a total cost of 1.61 billion USD; and in the case of a 30% reduction, the total abatement is equal to 1,026.4 MtCO2 with a total cost of 116.17 billion USD. The emission reductions according to the total targets of the five developed regions could cover around 3% to 15% of global CO2 emissions in the transport sector in 2020

Decomposition Analysis of Energy Consumption in Thailand, 1990-2020

Thailand is a net energy importer that has steadily increased the demand for energy over the past several decades. But there has not been a systematic analysis of the energy demand change factors. Therefore, a decomposition analysis was applied to determine the major factor causing the change in energy use during the years 1990-2020. The analysis covered a regional financial crisis known in Thailand as the “Tom Yum Kung” crisis in 1997-1998 and a global pandemic COVID-19 in 2020 onwards. The analysis results showed that the value-added of economic sectors is the most important factor with requiring more energy, while energy intensity is the second most important factor in reducing energy consumption. Therefore, increasing the value-added of productions and enhancing the energy efficiency more stringent will lead to a decoupling of energy consumption against GDP and a sooner peak demand of energy in Thailand

Energy demand modeling for low carbon cities in Thailand: A case study of Nakhon Ratchasima province

Nakhon Ratchasima is one of the northeastern cities which has been promoted as one of the low-carbon cities in Thailand. The study aims to evaluate policies and measures on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation to meet the target at the provincial level. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) is used as a modeling tool to simulate energy demand for each economic sector. The 2019 data is set as a base year, using top-down and bottom-up approaches depending on the availability of data for the analysis. The model consists of two scenarios: (1) Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and Low carbon scenario (LCS). Transport and industry sectors are the most energy-consuming and CO2-emitting sectors in Nakhon Ratchasima Province. In the LCS case, the final energy demand and CO2 emissions in 2050 will be reduced by about 40% compared to the BAU case. In addition, CO2 emissions in Nakhon Ratchasima Province will peak around 2038, this is not the case with BAU. The study could predict future energy demand and propose a way forward to reducing GHG emissions at the provincial level

Prediction of CO concentrations from road traffic at signalized intersections using CAL3QHC model: the Khon Kaen case study

Based on the US EPA air pollution model, CAL3QHC version 2.0 was applied to predict carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations from road traffic at three signalized intersections in Khon Kaen province. Four data groups required by the model, namely site parameters, traffic parameters, meteorological parameters and emission parameters were collected at each intersection and have been used as the inputs to the model. The prediction results were compared to the measurement. The results showed that the predicted CO concentration variations corresponding mostly to the measurement except at some hours when there was not good agreement due to an extreme upwind location of receptor, low wind speed, raining period, other out-sources of CO concentration such as another near intersection and parking lot. However, this study shows that the CAL3QHC model can be applied to predict CO concentration in the environmental condition of Thailand quite well. Moreover, the model might be used as a tool for assessing traffic air pollution at roadway intersection as well as for air quality management